I am a fan from Europe, long time lurker and this thread made me finally register.
I wanted to state the very same thing as OP. I know it happens on each forum all the time but the level of overreaction on TBD never stops to surprise me.
We lost 3 consecutive games last year in brutal fashion, and we still MADE PLAYOFFS with a team very similar to this one. And yet people seem to think that now Bills are almost lock for 1st overall draft pick after W1. That is just insane. You may argue that Davis is not Gaines, OL is considerably weaker, Allen is unknown and so on, but the fact remains that HC, DC and majority of team core (roughly 15/16 starters) is the same as last year, and there still many positions which may in fact turn out to be improved - Allen, Edmunds, Phillips, Lotulelei, T. Murphy and especially RB2 which was nonexistent last year.
I don't pretend having a crystal ball, and it is fairly possible (esp. if Allen will struggle) that Bills go something like 2-14 but at this point I do not see any reason to think that we will not be at least 7-9 team.