I respectfully disagree. You are consistent with this theory but I think you are being little too dramatic and at the same time wrong. Did our SB chances just suffer a hit? Sure. Are we doomed because we do not have 3 elite players? Hell no.
I think you are wrong from many reasons.
1. Theory does not work in general. You can win SB with 1 elite player (QB) and otherwise great team, or you can win with 5 elite players and average team, as well as average QB and elite defense. There are many ways.
2. Even if you were right, are you sure that when the playoff comes, we will not have 3-4 elite players again? Are you sure that Poyer is not elite player already? And are you sure other will not be when January comes? What about Oliver? Edmunds? Knox? I'd say we are not very far from the moment when we can say that either of them is a difference maker.
3. If you say that you need 3-4 elite players to win SB, who will even represent AFC in SB? The only team which fits the condition are Chiefs imo (Mahomes, Hill, Kelce). Are you saying that we will not be able to beat them anymore without Tre? As for other teams, who are these 3-4 elite players on Ravens? Titans? Patriots? Chargers? Bengals? I don't see more than 2 on any AFC team. There are couple of NFC teams which have 3-4 elite players, but I seriously doubt that AFC team (whoever it is) will not stand a chance due to having of less elite players.
4. Are you sure that all SB teams had at least 3 elite players? Granted I am no expert, but which truly elite players had 2017 Eagles? 2015 Broncos? I am only asking about last 6 years, since I haven't followed NFL before, so I am sure same question could be asked about many teams before.