VW82
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Posts posted by VW82
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26 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:
I appreciate the input. Ultimately as I said above it comes down to your definitions of accuracy and that will be a subjective call. I would agree he needs more accuracy in his short throws. But I'm thinking this may have as much if not more to do with his pre-snap reads and protection than his mechanics. When he set up in the pocket and got good protection, when I watched closely he was very accurate and precise on many throws especially more downfield. But we all saw him miss some short ones by a relative mile and my impression was that he rushed those throws because of pressure and because he made late decisions.
I don't think there is anyone out there who doesn't see a need for improvement.
For sure better pre-snap reads will help. You only have to watch Brady and Brees so many times for this to become obvious. They make the easy throws before the defense can adjust, and so they complete a tonne of them.
One of my theories, and I hope someone does this analysis at some point, is that Josh really struggles with moving targets. It's a big reason why he occasionally misses the RB leaking out of the back field. It's also part of the reason, I think, why he throws so hard on intermediate crossing routes. He's subconsciously trying to narrow the gap in time lag between release of the football and when it reaches the target so he doesn't have to adjust as much for distance covered by the receiver. Further, many of his best passes on the year were either straight back comeback routes or when the receiver was able to sit down in an open zone. Simple pitch and catch.
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While I agree with oldmanfan and appreciate transplant's effort in going through all that tape, I still think we have to put significant weight on the analyses performed by PFF and ESPN Stats & Info on this subject. I don't believe they're confusing accuracy and precision. Nothing that I've read would suggest that's the case. Also, they're very likely using computer programs designed to calculate distance from the target, so they're much more likely to produce a result which limits errors than someone who's guesstimating based on eye test. Both of their studies pinned Allen as the most frequently off target passer in the league. It had nothing to do with completion percentage.
I will acknowledge it's entirely possible that transplant was able to remove any bias in favour of Allen, and perform a fair study. Perhaps his threshold for an off target throw was just higher than the public sites which do this type of thing for a living.
In any event, there's a preponderance of evidence, both qualitative and quantitative, which would suggest Allen had difficulty hitting the target compared to his peers, especially on short routes as Gaughan suggested. I'm hopeful we'll see improvement in that area in year two.
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Brady shouldn’t be considered shoulder to shoulder with Jordan. Yes he won six rings but how many were with him as one of the best players in the league or even on his own team? By my count it’s three though if you want to say four I wouldn’t argue.
Everyone forgets that Brady wasn’t really Tom F’ing Brady until 2007. By that time he already had three rings. He’s more like Tim Duncan.
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His SB performance resembled Josh’s Green Bay performance this year. I can’t remember the last time a QB tanked his team’s chances this badly in a SB. So many missed opportunities.
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I'd like to see him come back with improved mechanics on all throws. It seemed like the work he put in to keep his hips from opening up on throws to the left kind of messed him up on throws to the right (perhaps because Josh was comfortable enough and strong enough to make throws to the right with open hips?).
In any event, let's put this accuracy issue to bed. Come back making all the throws, including the touch throws, and hopefully with better weapons and a better understanding of what's happening out there he can take a big step forward in year two.
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11 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:
I think we're saying the same thing. I agree with what you've said here. I run a clinical lab so I get accuracy and precision of assays. Where I think we disagree is the distance from accepted value. You seem to want to define it to such a small degree (I.e. Hitting a guy right on the numbers) that in reality there would be no real difference between being accurate and precise. The OP defines a wider radius to be accurate.
I think OP took any pass that was even remotely catchable (even if the receiver had to lay out to get his finger tips on it, or stop/alter his route and pull it off the ground) and called it a drop/catchable whereas the PFF and ESPN guys held QBs to a little higher standard in terms of what was considered on target. That would seem to be a simpler explanation than assuming everyone is so completely confused with accuracy vs. precision that they messed up their whole analysis.
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14 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:
No. The dot in the red is more precise, not more accurate. That's where you're confusing the two; it's shown right in the label of the diagram.
The OP talked about catchable balls. Let's take a WR numbers as the bulls eye. If the QB throws a ball that is "catchable", which I think could be be interpreted as within the catch radius, then it's accurate. But not precise. The OP should weigh in on what he considered accurate.
When you say hitting a guy in the numbers consistently, that requires not just accuracy, but precision. When folks talk about fitting a ball into a tight window that's not just an accurate throw it's a precise throw. Allen can stand to be more precise for sure.
as for completion percentage by the way, if he throws 30 passes the difference between 52 and 60% is about 2 passes a game. Or two drops or throwaways.
You're just flat wrong on this which is funny because you're accusing everyone else of mistaking them.
Accuracy is measured as the distance from the accepted value (i.e. the bulls eye) and the experimental value (i.e. where the throw landed on the dart board). Precision is the measure of deviation from the average throw.
Let's say the dot in the red bulls eye (which you claim is more precise but not more accurate than dots outside the red bulls eye) was all by itself, and the rest of the dots were like the dart board on the upper right. The bulls eye dot would be accurate, but not precise in comparison to the rest of the throws. You have it completely backwards.
Just because a throw is within the catch radius does not make it equally accurate to all other throws within the catch radius.
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6 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:
You have the diagram right but the interpretation wrong. I've posted the same one. When you hit a guy in the legs vs. chest it is the lower left hand diagram, high accuracy but low precision. Allen and others need to be more precise, less so accurate.
Hitting the bulls eye every time is high accuracy but importantly high precision.
Ok so taking the lower left chart as example, would you agree that one of the dots in the red bulls eye is more accurate than one of the dots in the white space? My interpretation is fine. You're making the same mistake as OP in assuming that there are no degrees of accuracy. It's harder to catch a pass at the knees or shoelaces (where you have to bend down to get it) than one that hits you right in the chest. One pass is more accurate than the other.
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35 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:
Refer to my previous comments in this thread. Many people confuse accuracy with precision and that includes folks like PFF. If you throw a ball at a WR and it comes in say at knee level that is accurate. But it is not precise. Precise would be putting it right on the guy's hands as he's running so he can make YAC. Allen is accurate as are the other rookies as indicated by the OP. But he could stand to be more precise along with his accuracy. The best QBs have both high accuracy and precision.
An accurate throw is one that hits the receiver in the numbers (i.e. a bulls eye). A throw that hits him in the knees is less accurate. A throw that hits him in his shoe is even less accurate than the one at the knees.
Precision refers to the deviations of his throws from one another. If all of Josh's throws were at knee level, he'd be very precise (though perhaps not as accurate as we'd like). The fact Josh had issues throwing in front, behind, high, low, and otherwise is evidence of his lack of precision, and the degree to which he was in front, behind, high, low, and otherwise is evidence of his issues with accuracy (though OP didn't get into that besides tracking uncatchables).
I've posted this before, but here's the visual representation.
Having read both the PFF and ESPN articles, I can't tell whether they're confusing accuracy and precision. It's possible they are though I doubt it. If I missed the smoking gun please feel free to point it out. So far all I've read are accusations. Specifically, I believe they were talking about percentage of off target throws - that's a(n imperfect) measure of accuracy. It would be better if someone could give average distance from the bulls eye for all these guys, or put them all on a dart board like above.
Edit: also, OP didn't conclude that Allen and the other rookies were accurate. He concluded that Allen was as accurate as the other rookies. He didn't do an analysis comparing rookie accuracy to the rest of the NFL QBs.
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47 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:
The myth is that Allen is one of the most inaccurate high 1st round draft picks to come out in years. That in order to become a legit NFL Franchise QB, he needs to take a lot more steps forward improving his accuracy than the typical rookie QB would.
That's the narrative--almost the joke--pushed by national pundits and "experts."
That was the myth I was "debunking," not that Allen can't or shouldn't improve his accuracy.
Of course he would.
But his accuracy as a rookie as compared with the other NFL rookies this year was just fine.
I made this point earlier in the thread but it appears to have been lost in all the replies...I don't think your analysis debunks the accuracy claims. It debunks the claim that he throws a greater percentage of uncatchable balls than other rookies. Your analysis assumes that a ball thrown late and 100 MPH at a receiver's shoe lace is essentially the same as one thrown on time and hits the receiver in stride. Both are technically catchable. Please correct me if I'm wrong.
PFF and ESPN Stats & Info did this exact same analysis and concluded that Josh threw a greater percentage of "off target throws" than anyone else in the NFL, including the rookies. It's unclear how much their version of an off target throw differs from your uncatchable throw.
Anyways, as someone who did a truncated version of this (and got killed for it), you have my appreciation and sympathy. I don't agree with your methodology as I understand it, but your conclusion is interesting nonetheless, and I'm prepared to take it at face value. Nice work.
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I'd feel a lot better about Allen if the team did a better job putting him in positions to succeed. There's a reason he looked better throwing to Foster and Mckenzie. Those guys could get open. Also, we need a new line.
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When PFF and ESPN Stats & Info did this exact same analysis, they concluded that Josh was responsible for the greatest percentage of off target throws in the whole league. I suspect their methodology for what constitutes an accurate pass was a little different.
Specifically, I don't think you can say that just because the rookie QBs hit the dart board (i.e. catchable) that means they were accurate. Some guys, like Baker, are hitting the bulls eye with regularity whereas others, like Allen, are all over the dart board. Perhaps that explains the vastly different result you got as you seemed to ignore that part on purpose. It is interesting that his rate of uncatchable balls was about the same as the other rookies though.
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1 minute ago, LSHMEAB said:
Other than sneaks(which is too effective not to use), I hate Allen's designed runs. I don't have the stats, but they were not particularly effective if memory serves. He's at his best when the play breaks down and he takes off from there.
He scored a couple TDs this year with the option play. I bet that stays in our goal line package. He's going to get better at reading when it isn't there and throwing it. That was one of the areas I thought he improved over the last two games.
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I can't stand RRP play calling sequences though it's different when you have players like Wilson, Allen, or Jackson. I can at least see the logic of trying to win using RPO or option/wildcat if you think they can't stop the run. At some point Carroll should have spread the field and let Wilson play QB.
I hope we're all done with designed Allen runs. I'm fine with him scrambling for big gains when defenses given him the middle of the field. The best thing we can do for Josh is give him a line and a running game to work from using play action. Sometimes that means RRP.
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I wonder how much the success of Foster (and to a lesser degree Mckenzie) will impact how the Bills view the types of receivers they target moving forward.
Allen's accuracy issues are well documented, and so finding guys that can really get open becomes that much more important. The one thing that Zay, Clay, Holmes, and KB all had in common is none of them were very good at gaining separation. You probably give up some blocking, execution on wr screens, etc., going after guys like that but until Allen can learn to become more precise on his throws (i.e. leading receivers away from defenders more consistently) there are going to be issues completing balls in tight coverage.
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26 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:
Brown is a headache so we won’t even consider it.
Brown is also the best WR in the NFL and probably the closest thing to Marvin Harrison you can get. I would give up 9 for him and think nothing of it. We won’t draft a player (anywhere) better then him. Maybe ever. I would absolutely give them anything within reason but again...never going to happen with Bean and Mcd in charge.
Is he still that guy though? Brown is undersized for the position and turns 31 next year. Also, football is a team sport. I like the fact McD targets guys who buy in to the team culture first. We might not always get the most talented player but it takes 53 to make the playoffs, and so if your more talented guy is taking things off the table for the other players it doesn't always work. The worst kind of player is the former star on a big contract who thinks he's still a big time player, and distracts the team with his selfish behaviour.
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I always thought it was tough to get a really good read based on his college experience (outside of him clearly being raw) but looking at it from week one to now, I'm definitely more optimistic than I was.
His ability to feel the rush (post snap) is night and day from training camp. Remember the Green Bay game when he was running from ghosts? Or all the throws in the first half of the year where he was milliseconds away from getting sacked because he had no idea he was about to get hit? He's basically Aaron Rodgers now in terms of his sixth sense in the pocket. It's really incredible.
I like his on field leadership too. He has a boyish positivity you sometimes see in young people who haven't been jaded yet by life that just seems infectious. He also does a good job leveraging his big plays to help fire up teammates.
At the beginning of the year he was a blob of clay. Now you can see the outline of where an NFL QB might one day be molded. It's exciting.
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It’s year three of the rebuild. Anyone expecting us to trade down is going to be sorely disappointed IMO. McBeane are safe for now but they know they have only so much time to turn things around. We’re one more stud play maker on the defensive line away from having a truly elite unit, and given McD’s personality and background I’d be shocked if he passed up that opportunity unless he was fairly certain he could get his guy a few picks later.
If anything, I expect they’ll be more inclined to trade up in the second or third rounds to get guys they think will fit the culture on offense.
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6 hours ago, oldmanfan said:
He missed a few today. He's missed a few every game. I'd love to sit with you next season and chart throws together and see how close we agree. I mentioned above I wonder what the inter and intraobserver variance is in all these analyses.
We should definitely do that. I agree there's likely inter and intraobserver variance breaking down tape - it's an excellent point. No one's perfect. It's also partly why I quoted you and pointed toward the ESPN analysis and referenced back to my own. The fact we (PFF, ESPN, me) all likely used slightly different methodology but came to such a similar result is interesting. Obv I didn't do the entire year and didn't have access to the same tech they likely did so it's not apples to apples but I think it's at least noteworthy if not highly coincidental.
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I want to quickly address Hapless's point about how we don't really know on any of these throws whether the receiver ran the route correctly, and so therefore we can't say for sure that these off target throws are actually Allen's fault.
I think it's very valid on timing throws where the throw is made before the receiver makes his break; however, shouldn't we still put at least some (if not most) of the blame on the QB for not adjusting once he sees the receiver cut on an 80 degree angle as appose to 70 degrees for example? This isn't a video game where you pick your play and only throw to a spot regardless of what else is happening. IRL things change and we re-calculate on the spot. Food for thought.
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3 hours ago, oldmanfan said:
Yes I did and have commented on it extensively herein as to the difficulties in such analyses. Some of us don't blindly take numbers someone throws out there to support a set conviction as you have done.
Did you see the ESPN Stats & Info article I posted a few pages back? They came to a similar conclusion wrt his rate of off target throws. Interestingly, the numbers were eerily similar to my 20% theory from charting those three games (though I was including bad decisions as well; It’s unclear whether ESPN did).
I thought he had numerous inaccurate throws in today’s game as well. On the whole he was obviously quite good. I’m excited to see how he progresses in year two.
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Overall nice game today from Allen. It had everything we’ve been discussing all year: improbable scrambles, big time runs, big time throws, lots of off target or inaccurate throws, some very questionable decision making, and a leadership quality that seemed to galvanize the team at crucial points of the game. I’m excited for what he can accomplish in year two.
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This was a feel good ending to the season though I do wonder if we’ll still feel the same way come draft time.
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FWIW ESPN Stats & Information claims that Allen's accuracy issues are actually getting worse which is surprising as it feels like he's been improving in that regard. Take it with a grain of salt and add it to the ever increasing pile.
"Allen's rate of off-target throws, as charted by ESPN Stats & Information, has increased from 19.5 percent (seventh-most in the NFL) through Week 6 to 27.3 percent since Week 12, the league's highest rate."
'Buffalo is very, very interested' in Matt Paradis
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
I am very, very interested in this rumor.