VW82
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Posts posted by VW82
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I think he's going to get a minimum of two more years unless he completely falls off. Daboll will get next year, and it if doesn't improve then he'll be fired and someone else will get a shot. It's possible at the end of year four that everyone is gone. But that's the worst case scenario IMO.
This team is still trending up. I'd say odds are better than 50/50. Mariota got five years to prove he wasn't the guy, and I think that's a pretty good comp for Josh considering where each guy was year two. Mariota stopped improving. Josh can still get better, particularly with the accuracy stuff.
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He made two or three huge throws and did very little else. Lots of accuracy problems.
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Pats killed us with misdirection stuff today. Allen wasn't anywhere near good enough but we also got out coached. Tough to win like that. At least we kept battling...
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On 12/18/2019 at 2:30 PM, transplantbillsfan said:
I disagree.
I watched every single pass of Allen after the season was over along with every single pass made in the rookie seasons of Darnold, Mayfield, Rosen, Wentz, and Watson.
Josh was no less accurate on the whole than any of those other rookies after tracking all those passes.
It's not accuracy.
Sorry, transplantbillsfan. You can say you've watched every pass of his career but don't tell me he doesn't have accuracy problems, and what's worse they tend to show up in big moments of big games. We had guys running open in the back of the end zone today that he just missed. There were countless other wild and/or inaccurate throws throughout the game.
I agree his biggest weakness is still processing time and making good, quick decisions. But he has accuracy problems too.
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Two biggest plays of the game. Josh misses Knox open in the back of the end zone (for the second time today). Then Josh doesn't keep his eyes up and takes a sack. Game over.
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Great play call by Daboll on the tackle eligible TD. Shades of Jason Peters lol.
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What a play by Johnson! Defense keeping us in it as usual.
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Josh is re-living his worst nightmare. He can't do anything out there and now all he's seeing is the rush.
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Brady just punked White. What am I watching??
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Josh is missing on a lot of throws early. Needs to be better.
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I hate those soft illegal contact penalties. Let them play.
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44 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:
I'm not following you on the bolded.
Part of your argument is that Lamar just isn't as far along as Allen is as a passer, correct? I'm giving that point to you, and saying perhaps Lamar currently is about as far along as Josh was over the last six games last season. Except, as a runner/scrambler he's currently on a level that Josh has never approached and never will approach, and that would more than make up for the difference in their games as a passer IMO.
QuoteI think we'd see Lamar scramble, but he'd have a lower productivity on the scrambles. Last year Jackson ran for 64 more yards than Allen - but he did so on 59 more attempts.
I strongly disagree with the bolded. For starters, this year Josh has more scrambles but for less yardage than Lamar: 41 scrambles for 299 yards vs. 36 for 399. I'm not arguing last year Lamar vs. last year Allen. I'm just using second half last year Allen as a passer to approximate what Lamar would do as a passer on this team today. Current day Lamar would almost definitely have greater productivity on scrambles (and RPO and designed runs) than current day Josh Allen if he played in Buffalo.
QuoteErrr, well...I would say this one, primarily. We are determined to teach Josh Allen to be a capable pocket passer, to read defensive coverage downfield, and to run a complicated, nuanced passing offense, sometimes without adequate pocket protection and without a reliable, sure-handed TE checkdown target. We started the season asking him to implement a precision short-to-intermediate passing game leaning the throws that were his biggest weakness last year. And to his credit, he did OK with it until he ran into very good defenses that are masters of disguise. We have started as the season has gone on to incorporate some RPO concepts and better checkdowns, but that's not where we started at all and I still don't think we run an offense that is very comfortable for Allen.
I think we may have our reasons for why we're doing what we're doing, but that doesn't change what we're doing.
Do you feel that's what the Bills have done with Josh?
I agree we're pushing Josh to grow and expand his game but weren't we noting after the Dallas game how we've been incorporating more run and shoot, roll outs, etc., designed to get him out of the pocket (i.e. tailoring the offense to what he does well)? What do you think we're not doing that might better take advantage of his strengths?
I'd also point to Daboll moving to the booth and helping him with pre-snap reads as evidence that we're still protecting him and putting him positions to succeed, just like I'm arguing we'd do for Lamar. It's not like we're asking Josh to be Peyton Manning back there. I think Lamar would learn the system eventually, and we'd tailor it to him as we went along just as we've done for Josh.
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On 12/18/2019 at 2:30 PM, transplantbillsfan said:
Josh was wildly inaccurate on a single throw and Collinsworth literally pointed to it in the broadcast in something like a "see, this is what I'm talking about" moment.
It was a little ridiculous.
He gushed over the defense, especially Edmunds, which I thought was weird because up until the last few games, Edmunds has been a little underwhelming. I mean, it was hilarious because they actually replayed a play where Edmunds made a tackle and were raving about him on a play where he allowed a guy to get a 1st down.
Maybe they do their HW for our next SNF game, but I was really disappointed in the broadcast.
I think your expectations might be a little unrealistic. They promoted Edmunds because he a) clearly has a lot of talent (as do his brothers), and b) the Edmunds family story was something they'd decided in production meetings to promote to help get people interested in the game. Maybe I'm a sucker but it hooked me. They also spent a Tre'mendous amount of time gushing over White.
You listed Josh's worst throw but the pick was at least partly his fault too, and he had some others that required our receivers to make "tough" catches (and they didn't). The point is it wasn't like he was lighting it up and giving them a lot of obvious talking points in his favor. I'd rather listen to Nantz and Romo but Michaels and Collinsworth as still pretty good IMO.
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On 12/18/2019 at 9:31 PM, Hapless Bills Fan said:
I'm not sure what significants the "mod" thing has here. Call me by my name, @VW82. When I'm talking football, I'm not speaking as a mod.
You are also misrepresenting somewhat. The actual point of discussion was a claim that Jackson would do as well or better than Allen, IF HE WERE DROPPED INTO OUR OFFENSE WITH OUR CURRENT PLAYERS in Buffalo.Nowhere did I say "he wouldn't be anywhere close to what Allen is in Buffalo", but I don't think he'd be better and quite likely not as well.
I also quoted you directly on that. Most mods are decent posters. Take it as a compliment.
You said:
QuoteIf you think Lamar Jackson would have anything close to the same results as Allen has were he dropped into our team with our offensive line, weapons, and system - it's very amusing, that's all.
I don't think this is a good take. It's pretty strong and you're basically implying that you're laughing at the people who think otherwise.
Besides, I think we've already seen Lamar in our system with worse players (i.e. Josh second half of last year). If Lamar was just dropped in without a year to learn the system/teammates would he be manipulating safeties every now and then like we see Josh starting to do? Arguably not, but I think we'd see him scramble and have some huge rushing games like we saw from Josh. I''d even go so far as to argue we'd score more as an offense than we're currently scoring. Lamar is that good.
But I still think this is a weird thing to argue. What decently coached team brings in a new QB and doesn't tailor their offense around him? Sure you press the boundaries of the player and try to grow their game but mostly you're going to do what the player already does really well and emphasize teammates who fit that.
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2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:
That's more than likely true. We don't run Roman's read option and we don't have the oline for it. We don't have the TEs with pass catching ability. We don't have big wideouts blocking downfield. We don't have a hammer like Ingram/Edwards.
Jackson has over 2 game's worth of fewer pass attempts than Allen currently. He throws the ball at one of the lowest rates in the league. He's also got more rush attempts than some starting RBs. He is in a very, VERY particular offense in Baltimore and in all likelihood would be less successful than other QBs running more traditional schemes.
You make some good points but ultimately I disagree. We don't run a traditional scheme either. We run our fair share read option and RPO though not as much as Ravens. We scheme to get Allen out of the pocket as much as possible because he's way more effective there, just like Lamar.
You're assuming that 1. our running game wouldn't look much better with Lamar in place of Allen, and 2. that Lamar would flounder with an increase in passing attempts. I don't think either of those assumptions are fair.
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16 minutes ago, Mango said:
There is a scenario where the playoffs get seeded
1. Baltimore
2. Kansas City
3. Buffalo
4. Houston
5. New England
6. Pittsburgh
Wild Card weekend
(6)Pitt @(3)Buffalo
(5)NE @(4) Houston
Divisional Round
(3) Buffalo @ (2) KC
(4) Houston @ (1) Baltimore
Conference Championship
(4) Houston @ (3) Buffalo
I have Houston over NE and BAL. On their best days they can put up points, but their defense isn't great. Until I see Josh light up NE, I really don't want anything to do with them in the playoffs. Our defense seems to be able to slow down the best of offenses, but we struggle against stout defenses.
This scenario would require NE losing to Miami in week 17. Dolphins still have a shot at the number 2 overall pick. I can't see them going all out to win whereas NE might still have a shot at a bye even if we beat them.
As for OP's question, the answer depends on how healthy Mahomes is. If he's still banged up then I'd rather see KC. Baltimore is just like us only better. Presumably we're talking about AFC championship game here.
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1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:
LOL nobody is saying Jackson would be nothing go away scarecrow
It's been said several times in this thread, including by a mod, that Jackson wouldn't be anywhere close to what Allen is in Buffalo. "Nothing" is perhaps overstating it but so is what was actually said.
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17 minutes ago, jrober38 said:
Finally someone who gets it.
I could understand if someone thought Jackson wasn't better than someone like Pat Mahomes, Russell Wilson, etc, but literally everyone who has argued with me this morning has said they wouldn't trade Allen straight up for Lamar Jackson. It's mind boggling.
I think the idea of doing a player for player trade is different from discussing who the better player is today because you're taking upside into account. I can see why people might think Josh has the greater upside, and likely the better longevity too.
Arguing that Lamar would be nothing without Roman or Baltimore's play makers, line, etc., is just dumb. Was Michael Vick just a product of Atlanta's system too? Guys on that level are special enough that they're going to find a way in most places unless you're actively trying to undermine them by putting them in a system that prioritizes their weaknesses. We're not doing that for Josh. Why would we do that for Lamar?
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16 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:
If you think Lamar Jackson would have anything close to the same results as Allen has were he dropped into our team with our offensive line, weapons, and system - it's very amusing, that's all.
We already run read option and RPO. We already play design to get Allen out of the pocket which is a strength of Lamar's as well. Daboll would certainly run more RPO and play action. If your argument is we'd purposely not do that and play away from Lamar's strengths then maybe you have a point, though it's a shaky one.
I get the belief that one day Allen will prove to be the better player -- I hope for this too -- but right now they're similarly styled players, only Lamar does it better. He's the much better runner and he's more accurate throwing the football (76% on target throws vs. 73%).
The idea that Lamar wouldn't be "anything close" to Allen if he played in Buffalo is tough to understand. Baltimore has better talent around Lamar but he also makes those guys look better with his otherworldly play making ability. That would very likely happen in Buffalo too. He's going to be MVP for a reason.
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2 minutes ago, syhuang said:
Glad we are in agreement that there is no stat to show a quarterback is slower to read a defense. The only problem I have with your earlier stats is that you didn't show the correlation between the stats and your claim. It's good that you now realize it.
BTW, in addition to Hodges, I'm pretty sure I also list Trubisky who plays 13 games this year. But that's beyond the point now since you admit blitz rate isn't an indicator either.
Glad we’re in agreement that you can’t come up with even a single piece of evidence to support the opposing POV.You’re asking me to show correlation between opposing blitz rate and the defensive coordinator’s respect for the QB’s ability to get the ball out quickly. Really??
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28 minutes ago, syhuang said:
Glad that we also get worse-performance-under-blitz out of the way. It looks like you only have blitz rate left. Let's move to it too.
Russell Wilson is currently being blitzed in 44.5% rate and Jimmy Garoppolo is at 43.6%. By you standard, these two elite quarterbacks must be slower to read defense than Devlin Hodges (35.6%) or Trubisky (25.8%), right?
You're entitled to have an opinion on whether Allen is slower to read a defense comparing to other quarterbacks. However, when you cite stats to attempt to support he is slower than others but fail to show the correlation between the stats and your claim, it's where the problem is.
Again, Allen needs to continue to improve and be better under blitz, but so far you fail to show any stats that he is slower than others in reading a defense.
I say “look at blitz rate as a way to see if defenses respect Josh’s ability to make quick decisions.”You say “here’s how everyone performed vs the blitz!”
I say “no just look at blitz rate. Their intent is more meaningful.”
You say “glad we can move on from how guys did vs the blitz.”
Nice straw man.
Also, why are you continually bringing up Hodges when he’s played four games? That’s just as bad as the PFF tweet.
BTW, as someone who lives on the west coast and frequently goes to Seahawks games I can tell you that one of the knocks on Wilson for years has been his ability to make quick decisions.
You’re never going to find a stat that shows definitively what you’re asking me to show. There are too many parts and pieces which is why you have to look at a bunch of different things, quantitative and qualitative, and piece it together which is what I tried to do. I asked you to provide some evidence (any evidence) to the contrary. The lack of evidence that he makes quick decisions is just further proof that he doesn’t.
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He’s been excellent the second half of the year. I’ll admit I thought we should have limited his reps going into the Dallas game given his struggles vs Wash and Philly lines. That might have been his best game, and he’s been all over the place ever since.
Josh Allen 2019 Regular Season at 58.8% Completion Percentage
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted · Edited by VW82
Offense scored 14 points. Defense got us 3 points and gave up 24. It should be obvious we needed Josh to connect on a few more of his misses on a day where Brady wound back the clock.
That said, it's taken me a day to process that throw to Brown. Guys don't make that throw. Josh made the same one last year vs. Jags when he was getting hit but still put it on a rope 40-50 yards downfield for a TD. It's mind boggling he can do that but can't hit some of the other lay ups. And we did it to Gilmore which makes it all the more sweet.