VW82

This stopped being a debate in 2020. No one anywhere, under any form of influence, would've ever taken Herbert over Josh at any point in the last 5+ years. OTOH if Josh had been let down by his receivers the way Herbert was yesterday, this place would be in full meltdown mode.

On talking heads not having watched Josh, I agree. He makes plays every week that maybe 5-6 others players in the league are even physically able to make. I doubt all these guys watched every one of our games. Did anyone other than Bills and Jets fans see the narrow escape and scramble to the sideline throw up field to Coleman last week that he dropped? That was a one of one play. I disagree he's going to lose the MVP race. No one will admit it, but voters will let the "Lamar isn't 3 MVPs to 0 better than Allen" narrative influence them.

i said some of this earlier itt but the most interesting case against Allen (because at this point he's the overwhelming favourite) is production based. Total (passing + rushing) yards / TD / TOV: Lamar 4807 yards / 43 TD / 11 TOV Josh 4262 yards / 40 TD / 8 TOV Jackson has a few more turnovers but also has been responsible for producing more offense. That should count for something, especially when you look at rate stats like yards per play where Lamar is both throwing 8.9 Y/A and running 6.6 Y/A for more than Josh, 7.3 and 5.2 respectively. Lamar is not only doing more but achieving it more efficiently with the exception of the turnovers. Traditional advanced stats like passer rating and ANY/A back that up. Josh does have the fancy advanced stats on his side like EPA and WPA, but I think the reason why "weapons" is such a hotly contested topic is because it really helps Josh's MVP case if we can say that. We need to say that because Derrick Henry isn't included in the above analysis. Josh is the MVP because he was the better player this year, and this btw is something publicly available stats that look at these things just aren't good enough to accurately determine today. Maybe some day in the future they will. But pro-Lamar arguments will continue and I think they'll look like something I laid out here.

😅 You forgot Ty Johnson who had a way above average year as a 3rd down back specialist.

We've always done a good job finding at least one keeper with late picks, and we'll need to because while Vikings have been a nice NFC story, the fact they might be the #1 seed is a tragedy from our perspective. I bet Beane pegged the Diggs pick as top 40. Instead, it’s going to be #55-64 range. Need one extra starter to make up for potentially missing on an impact player depending on how deep the draft is.

How can anyone feel good about it given what we've seen on the field. There are some slivers of hope though. 1. Carter was ok as a 1T last week. That's been a huge issue for us against the run many/(most?) weeks. 2. Bernard has been super shaky vs. the run at times. I believe Williams played some mike in college. We've yet to see him and Milano on the field together, and Bernard's leg injury may allow that. 3. Milano and Von have the ability (in theory) to raise their games in the playoffs. 4. Bishop also provides badly needed untapped athletic potential on the defense. He hasn't looked good but it's possible he gets better quickly after those late season reps. 5. McD didn't game plan much for opponents this year. Bet that changes in the playoffs.

If you're referring to my Lebron corollary, it was about denigrating Lebron's own teammates (even when said teammates are all stars, HOFers, etc.) to boost Lebron's perceived value/contribution to his team's success. I understand basically no one here is denigrating Lamar ('s regular season).

I still don't understand how you're arriving at those numbers. Is it a stat you invented and track personally? I find it difficult to parse through everything and assign proper credit (for production) for the same reasons why it's difficult to fully trust PFF. I completely agree with your statement about it being two MVP performances.

What's this based on? Total yards (passing + rushing) / Total TD: Lamar: 4807 yrd / 43 td Allen: 4262 yrd / 40 td It's the Lebron phenomenon. Lebron fans will denigrate anyone, including HOFers, in order to prop up Lebron in all contexts. I fear we're doing the same with Josh.

And Cook has more explosive plays, rushing yards per game, and much better Y/A (5.0 vs. 4.3). The strength of our RB and TE rooms are the depth. Kincaid goes down and there's basically no drop off to Knox. Ty Johnson has been one of the best 3rd down RBs in the league.

Ok well when this discussion first started, it was "weakest set of weapons compared to any other QB in the conversation" and now it's "less than elite" so just wanted to clarify. I agree he has a much weaker WR group than Burrow, but Josh has a better OL, RBs, and TEs. Josh also has a better defense which is important if we're counting wins. Lamar has better RB, but the OL, WR, and TE are debateable. I'd lean Bills there though Ravens probably have a healthy advantage in terms of WR top end talent (but not depth). Josh's EPA per play is 0.33 vs. Lamar at 0.32. It's pretty close. Lamar leads the league in TD%, Y/A, Passer Rating, QB rushing yards, QBR, ANY/A, 538ELO,...they're both well back of Burrow in WPA. I think Josh will win it, but it'll be as much narrative as anything else. It's "his turn," he's made as many or more best-player-in-the-league plays this season as anyone, and we have more wins than Ravens to your earlier point. I just don't think he's the favourite in terms of stats alone, and I don't buy that his offensive teammates just aren't as good, so we can agree to disagree there.

I wonder if this is generally agreed upon by most NFL fans. Do you have basis for this argument beyond just your opinion? Edit: and I assume by "less than elite" you mean "less than his contemporaries."

Ok. Let's back up for a second. Can we agree that Josh is the best player in the league? Yes? Good. I'm making the case that Josh doesn't have the best statistical case. Do we still disagree? Edit: you answered this above

For the record, I would vote Josh MVP. He's the best. I'm just highlighting the fact that his statistical case isn't exactly ironclad.

Passer rating (9th), AY/A (6th), ANY/A (3rd), Passing TD (9th), Passing yards (11th), Y/Q (7th),...etc., etc.

EPA isn't the be-all-end-all. Equating it to MVP is too simplistic imo, just as equating DVOA to best team is too simplistic. I don't think voters look at it that way. Burrow isn't in the MVP converation. I wasn't one of those people. This feels a little strawman-ish. Plus, we traded for Amari Cooper. Cook is T1 for rushing TDs. Our RB and TE rooms are some of the best in the league. Our Oline including Six w Anderson is one of the best in the league. It just isn't accurate to claim Josh hasn't been working with the same calibre of weapons.

Completion percentage above expected.

Yes he's good in EPA per play but middle of the pack in CPOE. Jackson, Goff, Daniels, Burrow, Hurts are all way out in front there. My point is you have to get hyper-specific to make a statistical case for Josh because he's not all that close in most of them. Edit: I'd also disagree wrt weapons. We've had this discussion before so I won't rehash that here.

It's tough because Josh has basically zero statistical case outside of QBR which has been ridiculed here repeatedly. His entire claim this season is narrative based which historically is a good thing to have but perhaps not the most solid argument.

It was a horrible throw that even the announcers picked up on. Surely Josh isn't above constructive criticism.

I’m dismissing him because he obviously isn’t doing enough to stay on field. It takes Coleman being out for him to even hit 50%. if Cooper was playing like some world beater drawing extra coverage he’d be out there more often.

We're used to teams having success running on us, but seeing average to below average QBs have their best days throwing on us is something we haven't typically seen in the McD era. Lots has been said about the Dline but there are problems at all three levels. Bernard looks like JAG. Dorian > Milano. Spector is unplayable. Taron Johnson looks mortal now. Douglas/Benford/Ingram/Elam have given up plays all year. Our safety play has ranged from OK to downright bad. Every time we plug a hole, a new one opens up. I thought Von was starting to come around. The last few weeks he's looked totally washed / ineffective. Oliver has his best game of the year (and first good game in weeks) vs. Lions, and then perhaps his worst game vs. Pats. There's no consistency. Every team deals with injuries. The problem with this group is it isn't even sure what it does well.

He's still behind Mack Hollins in snaps. This notion that teams are "rolling coverage" his way nonsense. Show me tape of something consistent. Cooper isn't even on the field enough for that to be true.

Amari Cooper is quietly having very quiet impact and we should quietly decrease his snaps in the postseason and then quietly let him walk in the offseason.

Fair enough. Oliver blew up the Lions Oline last week. But Pats pushed us back until we started sending more guys in the second half. It'd be nice to feel like you don't need to do that every week just to get a stop. This wasn't the Lions or Rams.