VW82

I don't mind doing extensions for younger guys we like coming off down years, but part of that has to be we're getting a bit of a discount. This feels like we paid full bang. I don't get it. There has to be more to this contract.

If we don’t extend or trade him, can Cook just sit out the year and become a FA or would his fourth year essentially remain unvested (i.e. he’d still be Bills property)? I understand that scenario probably isn’t likely but it makes a big difference to leverage in negotiations. Edit: if I’m Cook there’s no way I’m stepping back on the field without a new deal. Way too much risk and like it or not his market value has to be very now. Like, he’d probably get 15M as crazy as that sounds.

Dorian was a pleasant surprise but let’s not forget how much of a boost the defense got from Milano once he started looking better after the Lions game. Milano’s recognition more than makes up for the drop in speed. I doubt we make any real changes to LBer core for next year, though if we do it’s more likely to be Mike.

You mean through 2029 (rookie year four = 2025 + '26 + '27 + '28 + '29), unless you mean through the 2030 SB we're going to win, in which case YES!

Seems like a good deal for a core guy. "up to 60M" might mean there are incentives as appose to just an out after year three or whatever. Does this replace year four of his rookie deal? Could have cap implications.

Hard No on that. He isn't even a three down back. Great runner. Decent pass catcher out of the backfield. Not a good enough route runner to split him out wide or even from the slot. If there's a decent trade offer between now and the draft then you pull the trigger and then draft and sign someone. If not, you still sign a productive vet, take it into camp and wait for him to show up in week three after some fines. At no point do you pay him 15m AAV.

There are fit issues with Amari imo. Despite his physical profile, we seemed to use him mostly on passing downs. Guys need to be able to excel both in run and pass game to really work in this offense, with Shakir being a notable exception. If Amari is prepared to take a short-term role player deal then sure. I doubt he’s going to do that. Sometimes it’s best to just move on.

I can't tell if you don't understand the analysis I posted or you're just strawmanning again...either way, I think we're done here.

This is at least a fair argument.

Nope. The point of that exercise was that our playoff defense has been statisically above average over the McD era despite your claims to the contrary. Read that post again.

Let's do a McD-era experiment and calcualte relative points given up defensively per playoff opponenet (i.e. +/- points given up relative to opponents' regular season average). I understand this isn't perfect because there are a lot of variables in a playoff game but presumably some of those variables will even out over 7 seasons. In order to keep this apples to apples I'm going to limit to final score through four quarters (no OT). Also, + is bad - is good. 2017: Bills vs. Jags: -6.1 2019: Bills vs. Houston: -5.1 2020: Bills vs. Colts: -4.2 2020: Bills vs. Ravens: -26.3 2020: Bills vs. Chiefs: +8.4 2021: Bills vs. Pats: -10.2 2021: Bills vs. Chiefs: +13.8 2022: Bills vs. Dolphins: +7.6 2022: Bills vs. Bengals: +0.9 2023: Bills vs. Steelers: -0.9 2023: Bills vs. Chiefs: +5.2 2024: Bills vs. Broncos: -18.0 2024: Bills vs. Ravens: -5.5 2024: Bills vs. Chiefs: +9.4 Average relative playoff defense: -2.214 So...out of 14 playoff games in the McD era, on average we've held playoff opponents to 2.214 points below their regular season average. Yes, we've had some trouble with specific match ups, but STOP WITH THE HYPERBOLE. WE ARE NOT HISTORICALLY BAD EVEN IN THE POSTSEASON!!!

This is a classic strawman argument. Rather than addressing my objection that we're historically bad, you pivot to trying to compare us to our regular season selves so as to make it seem like we're historically bad (in comparison with ourselves). Nice try.

We're not historically bad in the playoffs though. We've had a lot of good defensive playoff performances over the past six years.

So four different teams playing against four different teams spread out over four years while completely discounting everything else that happened over those four years...c'mon man.

You mean the part that counted?

Agree to disagree on Bernard/Andrews. That was a spectacular defensive play, not an unforced offensive error. How about we strive for 40 points but also be cognizant that we need to hold opposing offenses under 40 points?? Again, what team has won the SB with an actual historically bad defense (not what GoBills would describe as historically bad)? How about we try and bolster both??

Andrews had the ball punched out from behind by Bernard in what can only be described as an exceptional play. You really going to characterize that as an unforced error?? Lamar thoroughly outplayed Josh outside of two bad plays. Let's at least be real about happened. GoBills tried to say our defense is historically bad, hence my reply to him. We were not an historically bad defense this season. We were just mediocre which is never good enough to win a SB, hence my reply to you. We don't need our defense to perform at a championship level. We just need to be regular good as we have been the last eight years. You're just outing yourself as a McD hater. I get the instinct given how thoroughly he's been outcoached by Reid, but the fact that hasn't generally happened outside of that specific playoff match up would suggest it's more of a final hurdle to clear than some indication that it can't happen period.

The stats you posted weren’t just for one game? You don’t get to say we’re historically bad on defense and then only refer to one game, even if it’s one game per year against the same team.

Right. One game. They were very bad in one game which happened to be the conference championship. That does not mean the D was historically bad overall. More like underwhelming and disappointing and definitely not good enough to win a SB. All the more reason to invest in it so we become more of a balanced team again.

Calling our defense historically bad is hyperbole and that wasn’t the point I was making. I’m not advocating for doing a Crosby trade. Per my DK comment, we can’t afford it. Given our cap situation, we need to improve internally and through the draft. That’s how we get better on D. That’s how we’re going to have to improve on O too. for Crosby

I already laid out the reasons why it’s unlikely, and again, even if we pulled it off going all-in on offense is not typically how you win a SB. What’s the goal here? Beating the Chiefs would be nice, but I’d prefer we construct a balanced team that has a better chance at the latter.

Even if this was possible, and I doubt it is because they have some terrific defenders and arguably the best DC in the L, how many teams have won the SB with that strategy? We need WR help, yes. Cooper and Hollins are FA and we weren’t good enough with them. But we still have cap issues and less options to cut salary this year. Finding another Cooper-esk trade with low salary is tough, and the return on those is often lackluster as we found out. DK has a 30M cap hit. Good luck making that work. We will most likely go bargain hunting and then use one of our top three picks on a receiver like last year. And we probably need to end the investment there for now because the number holes on defense far outweighs our need at receiver, especially given Brady has re-oriented our attack around the running game. Breaking the bank for a WR we can’t afford so he can be a complimentary piece doesn’t make a lot of sense unless we’re going to switch our identity again.

Even if all we do is restructure to equal the dead cap we’d do it because it’d be Von + 8M in cap savings vs. only 8M in cap savings. Von will likely be down for this because he’s not going to get 15M on the open market. Plus, we’re a SB contender. Long story short, expect Von to be a Bill in 25.

Warner is right. Josh needs to recognize O'Cyrus giving up the ridiculous blow by and immediately look across his body to his check down. Instead, he follows the play deisgn and as he's about to be blown up somehow finds Kincaid 25 yards downfield in what should have been the play of the year.

I would like to know more about this... On a related note, Cook was held out of key possessions 2nd half after getting lit up. How's he doing?