I'd love to see this followed up on by someone if they have them handy.
Also, HappyDays is just flat wrong about the variance comment. In-season numbers can carry a tremendous amount of variance. Even just looking at last year vs. this year we see Dalton's catch% going from 80% to 58% despite having an entire extra off season to work out any issues re "not being where Allen expects him to be be."
NBA players demonstrate tremendous variance in 3FG% as an example over small samples < 100 attempts, and they do not have to worry, usually, about being tackled. Yet, we think we shouldn't see such variance despite additional variables over relatively small sample sizes in NFL receptions. Doesn't make a lot of intuitive sense.
And just to add to previous points, Knox went from Y/R of 8.5 last year to 14.1 this year (66% increase). Is that because their "chemistry" dramatically improved downfield finally in year 6? Knox is now finally exactly "where Allen expects him to be be." No - there are surely other things going on here.
Some of the inconsistency is clearly on Kincaid, but he's been way above average in the passing game this season. His issue is that he's not so great in the running game - our bread and butter - and so he's ineffective on a greater percentage of plays than he would've been in Dorsey/Daboll's system, and there have unfortunately been some misses (some on him, some on Josh) which have skewed the numbers and would likely correct pretty dramatically over larger samples. /rant