VW82

So we go into the draft having bolstered our DL, DE, and WR while needing DL, DE, and WR. Outstanding. We still need DB help. I don't know who our starting FS is. Can Bishop move from SS to FS? Who starts opposite of Benford? Our list of obvious holes grows smaller and smaller. We're very clearly a legit SB contender at this stage, and it isn't just because of Josh.

Makes sense in theory. I will always advocate for guys who can separate so Josh can see them open as appose to throw them open which he isn’t great at. Im sure Chargers fans would tell us he’s a tease and that’s probably true. Fingers crossed. Edit: this takes the pressure off us having to reach in the draft. We should take a receiver anyway but don’t necessarily have to do so top 60 now if it isn’t there.

Right but Rousseau and Bernard were already on the roster so it's them + top 50 pick vs. Metcalf.

This is why I can't in good conscience criticize this regime too harshly. They targeted and aggressively went after Josh in the draft, developed him into the best player in the NFL, and have once again extended him at a below market contract. Well done.

I agree with OPer from the standpoint that we can take more swings early in the draft knowing we don't need to draft for need, except perhaps at 1T. The core group is locked up. Further to above, I feel like Beane has done a better job with upside picks in the first few rounds than need/depth picks where we've swung and missed badly a few times. Perhaps that alone is worth the cost of the paying home grown, non-star players.

I love Benford but does it really make sense to pay a zone corner 20M AAV? Edit: glazeduck beat me to it and said it way better

Probably not. Assuming Von gets cut, that only leaves Greg, Javon Solomon, and AJ on the 2025 roster. Plus, we only save 3M if we cut AJ, and he wasn't getting extended so...

I'd way rather see the money spent on the line for an already productive player than for a LBer that routinely gets wiped out if OL reaches second level.

Seems about fair. Rousseau is arguably a top 20 DE already and now he's paid like one. I will like this a lot better if we can find an actual threat from the right side. No more wasting snaps making Greg play from the blind side, please.

Yes, pectoral injuries are often a sign of "training" methods when players need extra help coming back from injuries or just looking for a boost in performance. Every Mike looks better with a better performing line but I found it troubling how often Bernard just gets wiped out. This was an issue in 2023 as well even though he made more splash plays. I would've had Rousseau, Benford, and Cook higher up on the re-sign list than Bernard, but i'll continue to wait on contract details before outright killing the deal. Bernard is a decent player, just not top-10-LBer-in-the-league good.

I don't mind doing extensions for younger guys we like coming off down years, but part of that has to be we're getting a bit of a discount. This feels like we paid full bang. I don't get it. There has to be more to this contract.

If we don’t extend or trade him, can Cook just sit out the year and become a FA or would his fourth year essentially remain unvested (i.e. he’d still be Bills property)? I understand that scenario probably isn’t likely but it makes a big difference to leverage in negotiations. Edit: if I’m Cook there’s no way I’m stepping back on the field without a new deal. Way too much risk and like it or not his market value has to be very now. Like, he’d probably get 15M as crazy as that sounds.

Dorian was a pleasant surprise but let’s not forget how much of a boost the defense got from Milano once he started looking better after the Lions game. Milano’s recognition more than makes up for the drop in speed. I doubt we make any real changes to LBer core for next year, though if we do it’s more likely to be Mike.

You mean through 2029 (rookie year four = 2025 + '26 + '27 + '28 + '29), unless you mean through the 2030 SB we're going to win, in which case YES!

Seems like a good deal for a core guy. "up to 60M" might mean there are incentives as appose to just an out after year three or whatever. Does this replace year four of his rookie deal? Could have cap implications.

Hard No on that. He isn't even a three down back. Great runner. Decent pass catcher out of the backfield. Not a good enough route runner to split him out wide or even from the slot. If there's a decent trade offer between now and the draft then you pull the trigger and then draft and sign someone. If not, you still sign a productive vet, take it into camp and wait for him to show up in week three after some fines. At no point do you pay him 15m AAV.

There are fit issues with Amari imo. Despite his physical profile, we seemed to use him mostly on passing downs. Guys need to be able to excel both in run and pass game to really work in this offense, with Shakir being a notable exception. If Amari is prepared to take a short-term role player deal then sure. I doubt he’s going to do that. Sometimes it’s best to just move on.

I can't tell if you don't understand the analysis I posted or you're just strawmanning again...either way, I think we're done here.

This is at least a fair argument.

Nope. The point of that exercise was that our playoff defense has been statisically above average over the McD era despite your claims to the contrary. Read that post again.

Let's do a McD-era experiment and calcualte relative points given up defensively per playoff opponenet (i.e. +/- points given up relative to opponents' regular season average). I understand this isn't perfect because there are a lot of variables in a playoff game but presumably some of those variables will even out over 7 seasons. In order to keep this apples to apples I'm going to limit to final score through four quarters (no OT). Also, + is bad - is good. 2017: Bills vs. Jags: -6.1 2019: Bills vs. Houston: -5.1 2020: Bills vs. Colts: -4.2 2020: Bills vs. Ravens: -26.3 2020: Bills vs. Chiefs: +8.4 2021: Bills vs. Pats: -10.2 2021: Bills vs. Chiefs: +13.8 2022: Bills vs. Dolphins: +7.6 2022: Bills vs. Bengals: +0.9 2023: Bills vs. Steelers: -0.9 2023: Bills vs. Chiefs: +5.2 2024: Bills vs. Broncos: -18.0 2024: Bills vs. Ravens: -5.5 2024: Bills vs. Chiefs: +9.4 Average relative playoff defense: -2.214 So...out of 14 playoff games in the McD era, on average we've held playoff opponents to 2.214 points below their regular season average. Yes, we've had some trouble with specific match ups, but STOP WITH THE HYPERBOLE. WE ARE NOT HISTORICALLY BAD EVEN IN THE POSTSEASON!!!

This is a classic strawman argument. Rather than addressing my objection that we're historically bad, you pivot to trying to compare us to our regular season selves so as to make it seem like we're historically bad (in comparison with ourselves). Nice try.

We're not historically bad in the playoffs though. We've had a lot of good defensive playoff performances over the past six years.

So four different teams playing against four different teams spread out over four years while completely discounting everything else that happened over those four years...c'mon man.

You mean the part that counted?