LSHMEAB

Don't disagree, but I'm mainly referring to holding on to winnable games. This goes back to 2017. At Atlanta and at KC come to mind. Picks on both last ditch efforts by the opponent. Last Sunday, we see the exact same thing. Tre picks off Dalton to seal the win. I'm conditioned as a Bills fan to expect the opponent to score in those situations, but his teams have changed that. I don't know if he's a top tier coach; none of can say for sure at this point. I do know that his teams don't fold late in the 4th quarter. As a fan, those are the worst games to lose. So I like the fact that I can have some confidence in those situations.

He wins close games. His teams have done that since his arrival. When's the last time the Bills had a coach whose team's didn't find a way to LOSE close games? That goes a long way in my book. Not that I've written one even intend to write one.

I fully believe the Bills have the right coach. More sold on him than any of the other major figures in the org.

Maybe Beasley could make his way onto the field in a Pats uni and sabotage from within. I don't think anyone would notice.

It'd be a big mistake to count the Eagles out. They've got a GREAT coach, a franchise QB(yes), a great DC, and tons of talent on that side of the ball. The breakdown you provided goes much further into depth, but that's a good football team. I do think Peters play is slipping and the offense(Wentz) need to adjust. He has been critical to their recent success.

I tend to think the number is a bit high based on the competition and gameplan. Main point is that I don't really care about that specific number as long as it doesn't start creeping towards 55. If his YPA is closer to 7.5 than 7, I'm good. If he continues to improve on both his completion percentage and YPA, we're talking about a FRANCHISE QB. I'm just not there yet.

Nice post and I appreciate your story. BUT I feel like I'm seeing this sentiment quite a bit and it goes like this; the world is not going to end if we lose to the Patriots and it doesn't mean Allen sucks. While I completely agree with the sentiment, I find it kind of unnecessary. Those of us who've followed this team in depth for many years are not going to be surprised (at all) if they lose this game. I DO want to see progress over previous matchups. It would be disappointing if the Pats just come into OP and curbstomp the team. That would leave me questioning things a bit. All I really want to see is the Bills at least make the Pats sweat. A win would be great, but at least make it a game.

I don't get it.

I think the value of analytics in football is different from baseball in that it's not at all based on players and much more on mathematical decisions throughout the course of a game. And yeah, he uses them.

Right! There are anomalous "great" teams and even they struggle with inferior competition throughout the course of a season. Sometimes, they even lose outright. I'm cool just seeing the Bills win games. Not so concerned with the margin. There's not some HUGE talent gap between the Bills and the Bengals. There's definitely a talent gap between the Bills and the Patriots, but it's not astronomical. We're not talking about Alabama vs. Northwest Eastern Birmingham Institute of Technology.

So you essentially agree with me! I feel like we're playing a semantics game here. If the Bills are winning consistently, Allen will likely need to be at least a low end franchise QB. I suppose you could quibble with my use of the term "bonafide superstar." The main point I was making is that the Bills are the furthest thing from a glamour team. It used to bother me when I was in my 20's. At this point, I really don't care if they get attention from outsiders. I just want to see them win. I'm not in this for bragging rights or "respect." I'm just a fan.

I think the TEAM would get national attention, but I'm not so sure about the QB unless he becomes a superstar. Allen's style of play is definitely fascinating whether you like him or not, but the Bills are one of those teams that won't get attention unless they really make noise. KC, Cleveland, and Buffalo. Those are the 3 IMO. KC is all of a sudden must watch because of Mahomes. Cleveland became an "interesting" team because of all the shenanigans. But you MAY be right. I don't know. The Bills just aren't a team that gets alot of national love. Then again, they haven't consistently won in a LONG time, so there's that. How bout this? How bout Allen becomes a franchise QB AND the Bills consistently win so we can find out the answer!

I don't really have a strong opinion either way, but it's GOING to happen. They are absolutely going to extend the season in the very near future. They're just waiting for the new CBA I assume.

Reality is that any Bills QB has to become a bonafide superstar before anyone nationally will take notice. I'll be watching every game though and I assume anyone reading this will as well. The eyeballs of non Bills fans mean nothing to me personally.

I think as the season progresses, he's gonna take deep shots. We haven't seen a ton as they've really worked the underneath/intermediate routes. My main takeaway is that I don't really care if the completion percentage dips down to 59/60 if the YPA remains the same. He's always going to be a guy who takes chances, so I think you'd be fine with more big plays/slightly lower percentage. That's where the YPA metric would continue on an upward trajectory even if the percentage dips. That would be fine. It would become a problem if the percentage dips AND the YPA takes a hit.

Wait just one second. If that's true, then I still don't......care. I don't think I've ever watched a halftime show in my life.

I'm all about the YPA uptick. I don't expect him to maintain the completion percentage, but it matters a whole lot less if the YPA trend continues.

McVay is basically the QB for the Rams, which is why I'm surprised they gave Goff that extension. He's just a decent QB playing a GREAT system. That could definitely catch up to them when it matters most. But you have to consider they didn't have Kupp last season in the playoffs, who's a huge part of what they do. I think they're the best team in the NFC in spite of Goff.

How in the world is this a NEW conundrum? What did you do the last time the Bills played the Pats?

Pretty much everything about his story is anomalous. A guy with that talent not getting D1 offers? I don't care that he was 180 pounds. That's weird right there. Then he comes out and every analytic metric says that his accuracy at Wyoming portends utter failure in the NFL. Yet he's chosen because of his arm/size. Then as a rookie, he demonstrates ridiculous mobility that nobody expected. It's almost like both sides are "correct," but the positives appear to be outweighing the negatives at this stage. He still makes throws that you don't expect even the worst NFL QB to make. Then he turns around and makes a throw you don't expect the BEST NFL QB to make. Regardless of what you think of Allen, the story is certainly interesting.

Yeah. Gotta agree there. You can never have enough depth at DT and considering our DE group is not a stellar pass rush unit on aggregate, I would think they'd be looking to bring in someone other than Peko to replace Phillips. We'll see my defensive line focused cohort. I think people are reaaaaly overrating his TALENT. This is not a guy with world class talent who fell in the draft because of character. This is an average player with an extremely limited skillset who also happened to have some off the field issues. The fact that they're working out 5 WO's tells you where they stand on this Duke guy.

Wouldn't shock me if Josh and YES, LJAX, end up having more success than the top 3 QB's taken. They both appear to be proving detractors wrong. I HATED the pick. I figured we'd already be looking for a new QB. I generally trust the numbers/analytics. I was slightly discouraged by that third quarter, but this kid is not going to "fail." I've seen enough to have full confidence in that. Will he remain mired in the middle of the pack and continue to have long stretches of head scratching play or will he minimize the bad and maximize the good? That will ultimately determine whether he moves into the upper echelon. Zero doubt about his work ethic, character, and most importantly, mettle in late game situations. That's huge to me personally. There are certain guys you can just tell are rattled when the lights are on. Allen appears completely unfazed by the moment and even seems to enjoy it. Can't overstate the importance of that(in my book anyways). He just MIGHT be the outlier of all outliers. But I'm not gonna put the cart before the horse considering our history with QB's. The kid "seems" different.

I'd be fine winning 2-0.

I would extend the take a penalty mentality to Edelman for the same reasons you cited; timing. Knock him around a bit, get him out of HIS rhythm and you may get the same effect as knocking Brady down a liiiiiiiitle late.

Offensively, stick to whatever works. That's what they do and I think it would catch BB off guard. Absolutely cannot fall behind in this game so if a particular set/play is working, just keep going to the well.