JGMcD2

1) Sweetheart... I listed 12/20 that were depth type players... didn’t get into Kelvin Benjamin but he was included. 2) The 360 number was perfectly fine considering that numerous players are released and added during training camp. If you want to spend the time to find the exact number, I’ll guarantee you it falls right around 360. I literally said ~360... that little squiggly thing means about... 3) Bad reading comprehension isn’t my issue. Math wasn’t bad, it was an estimate, I never gave a hard number. How was 20/360 wrong? What you want 5.5%, there I’ll give it to you. 4) You protest too much... you protest basically everything. You harp on the same talking points on every thread. I’m not protesting the fact that they’ve brought in Panthers, I’m protesting the idiotic assertion that all of them were expected impact players and/or didn’t live up to their expectations. I mean if the 12 depth players didn’t live up to their roughly minimum salary expectations to fill out the back end of the roster then I guess you have a case. EDIT: Because I know you won't do it, I just went through the numbers. 340 unique players on the Bills roster from the start of 2017 (hey not bad for me guessing 360!) 22 unique former Carolina Panthers players on the Bills roster from the start of 2017 (I forgot about Andre Smith and Daryl Worley in my previous post, so I was short 2 players) 22/340 = 6.5% of players in the Bills organization since 2017 that are former Carolina Panthers. My rough estimations were off by about 1%... a 1% error is really freaking good when you're just estimating...you caught me with my bad math. Round of applause.

I’ve gone over this in previous threads... there’s a humongous difference between impact signings and depth/camp signings. From years 1-3 there are only 2 players in the organization that were acquired by the Bills with ties to the Panthers still in the organization. Star and Marlowe (who was released and brought back). The only long term signing was Star.. the rest were depth. Yes, this year they heavily targeted former Panthers players, but throwing a large number like 20 out there (really actually not that large considering the turnover we’ve had since 2017, we only gave 6 players from 2017 still in the organization.. and the number of players that come into any organization during TC... there have been ~360 players on a Bills roster since 2017) and saying players weren’t worth the investment is kind of lazy... I mean was Kaelin Clay really a bad investment? Guys like Ryan Davis, Joe Webb, Leonard Johnson, LJ McCray, Mike Tolbert, Philly Brown, Robert Thomas, Jeremiah Siles, Derek Anderson, Kurt Coleman, Kaelin Clay. That’s 12/20 former Panthers that have been brought in... I mean if people honestly thought those guys were brought in to be anything more than depth it’s just a testament to fans ability to differentiate player roles. Using that 360 number above, which is ironically probably low (90 preseason roster x 4 seasons) and the 20 Panthers players... 5% of the players that Beane and McDermott have brought in are former Panthers...

Yeah, Hap, I think you do a great job of highlighting that development is far from being linear. Truthfully, development is the furthest thing from being linear. We’re human... that’s why...

I would argue his reputation is based off of endorsements by Bill Belichick and Nick Saban. I don’t think Allen’s development was exclusive of Daboll. I’ve worked with a few high level HS QBs and HS coaches and they rave about what Daboll does with his play calls... even dating back to last year. Basically how intricate the system is and how he’s constantly setting up for plays in future series. They love the route combinations. Now, is Daboll a HC candidate without Josh? Absolutely not. It’s a mutually beneficial relationship and more often than not the player does have more influence on the success of the pairing because if the players flames out then the coach carries part of the blame. They don’t often get another shot to develop players... whereas players can go somewhere else and a coach will take a chance at molding them. If your argument is that you need a franchise QB to have success as a coach, I agree with you. But it seems to be your argument is just that Daboll outright sucks... which is a piss poor argument.

You can’t just take 17/32 teams and use that to support your argument. That’s not how numbers work. That’s not being objective, that’s being extremely subjective. You’re cherry picking numbers to fit your argument. You take the entire sample or it’s worthless. You keep saying look at it however you want, but that’s what you’re doing. You’re categorically neglecting objective data, you’re implying that I’m applying my opinion to things when I am just looking at the facts...not one iota of your argument has been anything other than opinion. You want facts, yet you don’t use them.

Sure, let’s go back through all of your posts... I have them right here!!! They’re all in order too, which is fun. 1) You start off saying that Newton was careless with the football. You maintain this point the whole time. i think you should look at that game a little bit more...had nothing to do with not having brady and more to do with Newton being very careless with the football...because if you watched that game, the patriots where in seconds of winning that game....the bills with the pats JV squad were on their heels... 2) Here is where you tell me that you only want facts and not opinion... which is great! and no i am not contradicting myself at all because I truly do not care if you do not like what i like...just have facts not your opinions 3) Here you insert an opinion... you say you can insert any other QB and the Pats could have won. Well that’s an opinion, this is where I asked for you to provide DATA showing me any other QB would convert in that situation. Because you can insert any other QB in that situation and the pats could of won. That wasn't a situation were only elite QBs take control of. They were at the 20. Most NFL QBs could handle that moment. Tyrod Taylor could of won that game given how it was setting up. 4) Now you tell me (without data) that percentages are very high for the offense to score at any moment, with the implication that scoring in the red zone is very high for an NFL team. I obviously went through the numbers and that wasn’t the case at all, even though you presented me the numbers and said teams score a lot in the red zone... but I looked quick, did some rough math and found out it was 55% of the time... essentially a coin flip. and you want to act like the percentages aren't high for a offense marching down the field, ball on the 20 to score? OF course a lot can happen, but the percentages are high an NFL offense could score in that moment and no my post did not say the Pats would win...i said they "could" of won. 5) Now you just disregard all of that and say you FELT like they had a great chance even though the numbers still show it was a 50/50 shot. Again, you provide no facts, just your opinion. Which you told me in section 3 of this post was something you didn’t care about, you only care about facts. What i seen was, the patriots had the bills on their heels. Had Newton not fumbled .....i felt great about the patriots chances. Ultimately you changed from telling me that Newton was careless and any other QB would execute. You used the fact offenses score a lot in the red zone to support your argument. The data didn’t bear that out at all, it showed that it was a coin toss. Then you acted as if that supported your argument when it actually contradicted what you had asserted to me earlier on. Eventually you just give me your feelings on the situation saying that if Newton doesn’t fumble you feel good, even though the numbers suggest it’s almost as likely for the Patriots to not score there as it is for them to score. You gave me opinions the whole time, even though you said all you want is facts, and then when you presented facts they blew up your argument.

Because that hasn’t been your argument the entire time lol. Your argument has changed as I’ve continued to push back on it. But as it relates to your point, you were behaving as if Newton turning the ball over was so egregious and that teams automatically convert in the red zone (with no facts to support that) then the facts didn’t bear that. The Patriots not scoring there wasn’t as egregious as you said it was.

No, you’re not understanding how numbers work. I didn’t state how I felt, I asked for objective data in order to properly assess the situation. You provided that data, I analyzed that data and figured out your point was just wrong. You’ve been stating how you’ve felt this whole time and have been trumpeting your opinion as facts. That’s why I asked for objective data, which proved that.

Well that’s an opinion. You presented objective data to me and are now disregarding it in favor of your opinion, which is contrary to your whole message board posting code of ethics you laid out for me.

Yeah you see snippets of things. Not necessarily the whole story. Well from a probability standpoint it's essentially a coin toss...

I mean I asked specifically because fandom usually causes people to behave in certain ways and hold certain opinions. I’m just curious where you’re coming from... most fans also don’t have the bandwidth to watch all 32 teams and under the nuances of each organization, their games, etc. I can’t restrict your posting, it’s more for my knowledge. Doing rough math it looks like the average TD conversion rate was around 55% last year? I mean it’s not necessarily a guarantee. It’s closer to a coin toss than a guarantee. EDIT: My rough math was REALLY good. It was 56% last year.

Never said there was an issue with you being here. Okay that’s what they’re taught... who’s to say another QB running there doesn’t put it in the wrong arm and get the ball knocked out? We’re playing the same game here... the what if game... ultimately we don’t know... but stating someone else would execute isn’t a “fact” that’s an opinion. You’re presenting facts but the whole argument isn’t rooted in fact, it’s rooted in opinion with some facts being used to support it. Easy to confuse, but much different.

I asked who you root for and why you feel the need to post here... basically you’re not a Bills fan, so why take the time to post here? Okay, but what facts are you presenting in the 2nd half of your post here? You’re presenting an opinion, with absolutely zero facts to back it up. Is there a statistic that shows how often QBs convert in that situation? Are you telling me Cam Newton, a former NFL MVP and NFC Champion doesn’t know how to handle those situations? Insert any other DT and MAYBE they don’t force a fumble and the Patriots win the game? I mean you’re not presenting objective facts, you’re presenting an opinion.

You didn’t actually completely answer my question. I mean I never said anyone had to share the same point as you... no need to put words in my mouth. Question, and this is going to really put you in a sticky spot. What makes someone’s sports takes off base? Because if everyone doesn’t have to share the same point of view, then they’re allowed to have different takes. So because they don’t agree with you, their takes are off base? Pretty cool how you contradict yourself there...

That’s fair, but there’s also simply no way to say with certainty that Morse would definitely not be starting at center this Sunday if Ford wasn’t injured.

What team do you root for, and ultimately why do you feel the need to be here? Thanks for your time!

https://twitter.com/JaySkurski/status/1332335779574640645 Media must be glad they created a story for Bills fans to freak out about during bye week!

It’s amazing it took all year for us to notice how overweight he is. We could just never tell in the uniform on game day, or in any other practice photos. He needs to start taking things more seriously and lose the excess weight. After seeing this I don’t even know if he truly cares about football. Gosh, some folks.... 🙄 In all seriousness he does look a little heavier this year, but not much. I know for a fact weights are set by S&C and monitored... my guess is he was asked to put on 5ish lbs for durability purposes or it was agreed on that he could do that. If he was actually overweight it would be an issue the coaching staff would address pretty quickly. This is just an unflattering picture with equipment on... and yes he’s likely wearing EXACTLY what he’s going to wear in a game for feel purposes.

I don’t mind Feely at all. Gumbel and Gannon are generally pretty annoying and repetitive.

Yeah for sure. It’s going to come down to the synergy between the coaching staff and front office... which I think we’ve got one of the most in sync groups in professional sports. McDermott can get a lot out of a little and keep guys focused. Beane has done a good job finding starting quality guys, maybe not stars, but guys who can contribute in every draft. He’s also done well for himself on waivers and with a decent portion of his FA signings. He’s missed of course, but he hits more than he misses. I think they have the 4 things it takes to be successful and make drafts look even better than they are... 1) Good Owner 2) Good GM 3) Good HC 4) Good QB

Well the bar you set was 3 starting caliber players each draft... and most of these guys are starting on a playoff team. So are they not starting caliber? In the baseball scouting world we break things down a certain way. On the 20/80 scale. In order for a guy to get a specific grade and fall into a specific category they have to meet certain criteria. For example, John Means of the Orioles, when he broke out and was an All-Star and the ace of the Orioles, that doesn’t mean he was an actual ace. In reality the grade I had on him was roughly a 55, which means he’s a #4-5 starter on a playoff caliber team. But if we’re grading all of these picks, they’re starting on a playoff caliber team... so they can’t be below average, at least not all of them. It’s impossible. Because in theory they would go to average and below average teams and be one of the top players.

Can’t wait to watch Mahomes and the Chiefs run over Brady next week. What will be even better is when the Bucs lose 1st round to the winner of the NFC East.

Fair enough, but if Green Bay were to have taken a WR in the first round this year it would have been a WR that didn’t actually go until the 2nd round. Every 1st round WR went before their pick came in 2020.

These are all great. I agree PIT, BAL, GB... so Colbert, Newsome/DeCosta, Thompson/Gutekunst. But who else? You need roughly 7-12 more GMs that are better than Beane at drafting for him to be considered average or below average...

The funny thing here is we passed on Mahomes and Watson and were able to end up with Josh. The Giants and Broncos thought they could pull off something similar? I’m not sure. The Giants took Jones the next season, similar to our decision to wait and take Allen. I know folks still harp on that, but imagine if we didn’t get it right? That’s the point though, if we passed and then didn’t get it right when we went to do it... you’re in trouble because the QB position is the MOST important on the field.