JGMcD2

"Sometimes, for example if you want to assess a trade or determine the top draft classes of all time, you need a metric that is capable of comparing players across positions and eras. In baseball and basketball, lots of stats have been cooked up to do this, and they can do so with a reasonable degree of precision. In football, no such stat exists. In most cases, people use "starter" or "number of years as a starter" or "number of pro bowls" as the metric when they have to compare across positions. AV is intended to be an improvement over those metrics, and nothing more. It is not Not NOT an ubermetric whose purpose is to decide once and for all who the best players in NFL history were." - Doug from PFR I was trying to check into this a little deeper and see if I could find a way to compare the Bills drafts since McDermott and Beane got to Buffalo. This isn't perfect, but I wanted something other than people just throwing their feelings around. I used Pro Football References Weighted Career Approximate Value... it's not perfect but they do say it's a fairly objective measurement to use to evaluate a draft class. I don't think it's as useful as WAR in the MLB is, I'm pretty familiar with WAR and this isn't really the same concept. The definition is below. The career AV is computed by summing 100 percent of the AV of his best season, 95 percent of the AV of his next-best season, 90 percent of the AV of his third-best season, and so on You will also see DrAV, which is just the Weighted Career Approximate Value but solely for the team that drafted them... so we won't get credit for Wyatt Teller performing well in CLE because well... it's not helping the Bills. I did one including 2017 which I will call McBeane and I did another one omitting 2017 which I will just call Beane. This should give us some separation between those who say that Beane didn't conduct the first draft, therefore he's not a good drafter, etc. Using 2019 may be a little premature but that's the case across the board for every team. I omitted 2020 because they don't have those draft values... this will be a fun exercise to conduct even further down the road when we have some more clarity on how Beane's picks pan out. But to give us an idea of what things look like right now in comparison to the rest of the NFL... Here we go.. . If you look at the McBeane drafts (2017-2019) sorted by DrAV you will see that the Bills have been a top 5 drafting team in the NFL since McBeane arrived. The Colts, Ravens, and 49ers are all ranked above us, with New Orleans right below. This lines up fairly well with what a lot of posters have said with those teams being very good drafters, but the Bills are right up there with them. If you look at the Beane only drafts (2018-2019) sorted by DrAV you will see the Bills just outside of the top 5, tied at 6 with the Oakland Raiders. Indianapolis and Baltimore stay strong at the top, as well as SF. CLE and NYG jump up above us, CLE is aided by their very strong 2018 where they got Mayfield, Ward and Chubb. Although we drop a little bit with just Beane, we're still in the top 6 in the NFL. Obviously, OBVIOUSLY they need some more time with these picks. Some players will have better and longer careers and things will start to change, but overall right now it looks like McBeane has done a very solid job drafting since they've come to Buffalo. It looks like a few guys from 2020 should do well for themselves including Gabe Davis and Tyler Bass. Epenesa, Moss and Jackson have shown flashes. Not everyone is going to be a contributor... but so far under this regime the Bills have done well for themselves. I can't predict the future, but I can show you the past... and it shows the value we've gotten so far is in fact elite when compared to the other 31 teams.

"And of the 20 or so former Carolina free agents they've tried since coming to Buffalo only Daryl Williams and Dean Marlowe have proven worth the investment so far. " You did say this, which sparked my initial post ^ "If they had actually gotten Olsen they could have easily been an opt-in(Lotulelei) and an injury(Norman) away from having 6 of THEIR former Panthers players in the same starting lineups for much of the season(Williams, Klein and Addison) and also had Butler and Marlowe playing 37% and 21% of the snaps............that's A LOT of playing time coming from players from one other team.........it's not a bunch of camp fodder as you'd like to present it." Then you also pointed out who's playing significant snaps this season, while also throwing in some hypotheticals. Now I would say guys playing significant snaps like you laid out are significant signings, unless you have another definition? ^ Did they really wait for those players to become available? They didn't have any idea Norman would be released... they didn't jump all over signing AJ Klein in 2017 when he signed with the Saints? They released Marlowe once...I mean if Worley being signed to the practice squad isn't worth the squeeze then.. uh... Well then you need to factor in the true value of ALL starting off-ball LBs who are on rookie contracts, because their deals are below market value. You can't combine a free market and the cost controlled draft amounts... it doesn't represent true value.

I hope it’s Josh in shorts, with a rocket arm, NFL sized hands, walking in the LaGuardia Airport with a shirt that says “Stats are for Losers”

Benjamin, Star, Williams, Addison, Norman (5). Butler, Marlowe and Klein weren’t signed to be starters. Klein I guess you can argue would technically be a starter even though we play with 2 LB WAY more often than not. I would say Benjamin and Norman are clear busts. Star and Butler have been ok, but leave a lot to be desired. Marlowe has been good in limited action. Williams, Addison, and Klein (now that he’s adjusted to playing a new position without TC) have made a substantial impact. Does someone want to point out who they would have acquired this off-season instead of those players? Because prior to this season they brought in Benjamin and Star to be starters and the other ~14 were depth.

Dude, you keep contradicting yourself. You’re pounding the 22 number as if it means something super significant. Then you come down and talk about how only 5 of those signings were actually significant. That’s literally the point I was trying to make initially. You can’t pump up the 22 number when only 5 of them were ever supposed to be serious contributors. It’s not like they went out and signed 22 former Panthers and with the intention of them all being starters and only 2 of them have proven worthwhile. Until this season they had signed 1 Panthers that was expected to be a starter, in Star. Your whole thing was that the Carolina pipeline hasn’t been fruitful because they signed 22 of them and only 2 have proven worthwhile. Well 2/5 is a lot different than 2/22... I’ll concede my analysis has been poorly constructed, your feedback has been more than fair on it. It was an attempt at adding context and putting it together quickly.

My new hope is that Jalen Hurts looks like a stud tonight and the Eagles cut Wentz. Nobody wants Wentz as their starting QB and he backs up Josh for the next 15 years. Otherwise it’s gonna be Trubisky doing that.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/11/30/kenny-stills-clears-waivers/amp/

Geez. I didn’t realize that we also have Dennis Hickey (former Dolphins GM) in the personnel department. We also have Alonzo Highsmith’s son as well...

• A team that loses a minority assistant coach who becomes a head coach or loses a personnel executive who becomes a general manager will receive third-round compensatory picks in each of the next two drafts. • A team that loses two minority staffers to head coach and general manager positions would receive three third-round picks. https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.usatoday.com/amp/6234064002

Beane has assembled an outstanding front office. They didn’t even mention Brian Gaine who we brought back after Houston (Bill O’Brien) fired him as their GM. Also, if Dawson, Boyd and Gray get GM jobs we get 3rd round compensatory picks in the next two drafts for each. I think it’s a stupid rule, but kudos to Beane for having a diverse front office BEFORE there was a reward for it. EDIT: I don’t think hiring diversely is stupid, at all. I’m a huge advocate. I just don’t like the compensation attached... it seems to create the wrong atmosphere. I don’t have the solution though, at least the league is trying.

I wonder how much the perception of McDermott changes if we overachieve in 2017 but DON’T make the playoffs. We finish 9-7 and just miss out... things are great because he took a rebuilding team and performed above expectations. It seems many fans are hung up on the 0-2 in the playoffs... which I’ll concede is somewhat fair. What I’ll push back with, is the fact that that first season they were playing with house money. Being there exceeded expectations and they played a competitive game. A win would have been wonderful and nobody mailed it in, but a win surely wasn’t expected, the playoffs weren’t even really in play for many people that year. Does the perception change if he’s only 0-1 in the playoffs going into this year? Or do folks just harp on the fact that he’s only been to the playoffs 1 time going into this year?

https://ninernoise.com/2020/11/03/sf-49ers-steve-young-convinced-garoppolo/ It was this quote from Steve Young, but another writer tweaked it and made it sound like that was the belief inside of the 49ers building that Shanahan felt that way. One of their beat guys said he finds it unlikely that they bring Garoppolo back next year based on performance, cap decrease and Shanahan’s ability to win with any QB. Looks like maybe those were spliced together wherever I read that? Or I very well could be misremembering... if that is the case I apologize.

Stills went unclaimed on Monday and is free to sign with anyone.

He’s played 15 in 2 seasons. 13 in one. 5 this year. This is the first year he’s missed significant time. 10 games isn’t even his average if he fails to play another game this season. His seasons ends without playing another game and he averages 12 games a season. He plays the next 5 and he averages 14 games a season. This injury prone thing is a little strange. I’m not advocating a huge contract extension for him, but he’s also not injury prone. 10 games isn’t his profile because 1/4 seasons he played in 10 games due to injury...

You’re correct. That’s not really what I was getting at though. I need to find the quote/article that talks about how he’s probably going to move on from Garoppolo and doesn’t really care all that much who replaces him because he doesn’t think he needs an elite QB to win. Maybe someone can help me out... I know I saw rumblings of it somewhere. Which is fine, but there aren’t many instances of that in the modern NFL. Hopefully he doesn’t let his confidence get the best of him is all.

Shanahan believes that he can win with any QB, and that the position isn’t that important. He’s pretty confident in himself.

Milano has played over 13 games in every season outside of this one? If he comes back this week he will have a chance at 10 games this season. Which would mean at least 10 in everyone season he’s been in the NFL.

Sure. We’ve brought in 22 former Panthers (not all of them were there with McDermott/Beane) I started putting the numbers together. 17 former Jets, 16 former Dolphins, 15 former Bengals, 14 former Ravens and Giants. It’s the most from a single team, we’ve brought in, but it’s hardly inordinate. I’m sure if I start looking at other teams there will be high marks. I guess what you’re not recognizing with the camp trash is about 12 of those former Panthers were competing with camp trash for a roster spot, and the next season when we found an upgrade they were let go...

The response is most likely going to be something about the level of competition, without citing the level of competition those coaches faced over the periods of time you presented. There will also be some thing about the numbers of blowouts for and against. Something about being super conservative and not managing the game well. Someone might sneak something in there about McDermott’s successful challenge% Solid post overall... puts things in perspective across the league and McDermott against his peers. Solid post. One correction, they actually lost to the 2-8 Bengals by 11 points.

I'm sorry he doesn't inspire you. He's really bad at the whole pumping the media and the fans up, definitely a bad line on his resume...we all know the coaches that do this well tend to win more games. It's such a shame he connects with the players and motivates them. I hate when players love their coach and are winning footballs games. I watched him get outfoxed this year by so many great coaches, the likes of Sean McVay, Bill Belichick, Pete Carroll and Jon Gruden. I really wish he could have beat those guys this year, because if he had we'd be around 1st place in the division! Yeah, I mean they've pretty openly said this is their goal. They want sustainable success... because the playoffs are a crapshoot... the more often you are there the better chance you have of winning it all.

I think he’s just saying that even the elite players make mistakes... so the non-elite guys are definitely going to make mistakes. Awesome you watch the film (seriously, I’m not being sarcastic... it’s something I think more should do) who are the 20+ safeties above Poyer based on film?

That’s exactly what I am saying... folks like BADOL is saying the Bills have brought in an inordinate amount of Panthers... by definition that means unusually or disproportionately large; excessive. I’m making an attempt here to find out if that is true, but you can’t just it’s inordinate with no comparison either. Then it’s just because you said so. It’s not an easy process to scrape everything together to figure it out in comparison to all other teams. The point of that is that most of the Panthers players brought in have been back end of the roster players... competing with those UDFA and depth signings for the final few spots on the roster. The majority of them have been depth signings... that some how have been major a disappointment to BADOL. It’s just a loaded statement. “Of the 22 Panthers McBeane have brought in, only 2 have panned out.” Well for the average reader they go, “what, that’s so bad. Those guys are idiots.” But 17 of those guys have just been depth, they’ve come in and out like camp fodder. 5 have really seriously been expected to start. That’s the point. I probably didn’t phrase my analysis properly but at least it’s a step towards actually conceptualizing the word inordinate and not just saying it and believing it’s true.

Why do they have to have at least 1 year of experience? I’m not exactly sure why that’s relevant? And most camp signings have been around for 1+ years? Depth can be in he league for 0 years or 10 years... I didn’t realize it had to be 1 year as declared by BADOLBILZ. How do we know that? Simply because you say that it’s an inordinate amount? Because the media says “Panthers connection” every time we sign someone who played in Carolina? You’re arguing with me about something I’m not even arguing about... I’m not saying they haven’t signed a lot of Panthers... but relative to the number of players they’ve brought in, and yes, the vast majority of Panthers players we have brought in have been depth, the number isn’t that large. When you say they don’t live up to their billing, I don’t understand how a depth signing, signed at the league minimum can’t live up to their billing? The reason all of those players are relevant is because that’s who the majority of former Panthers we have brought in have been competing against for a roster spot... because they’re primarily DEPTH! It wasn’t meant to serve as a comparison to other teams, it was meant to be relative to the number of players that have come and gone over the 4 years McDermott has been here. I don’t need other teams to show that... I wasn’t arguing that 22 was a large or small number. If you want me to spend hours combing over every team a player has played for and drawing those connections across the league, I’m sure I can do it. It’ll take some time. But ultimately here’s the thing... you claiming that they’ve signed and targeted an inordinate amount of Panthers is actually less relevant than my attempt at showing the numbers. You’re just claiming it, with literally no way to prove it’s quote on quote inordinate. You’re doing exactly what you’re accusing me of doing...

First 3 seasons missed 4 games. He’s missed 6 this year. A little overblown.

Well now my number is baloney... I would have at least appreciated you acknowledging that my math was good... keep moving the goalposts though... How is the data arbitrary? It’s all players brought into the organization, showing the percentage of former Panthers. When you recognize that players play for teams and move around, it’s really not a major issue. I know off the top of my head we have like 4 former Chiefs on the roster right now, a few Browns, some Jets. Do you really think it’s out of the realm of possibility that we’ve had 20 former Chiefs, Browns, Eagles, Seahawks through here in 4 years? Glad you just pivoted off of your first argument which was just off-base. Now you’ve narrowed down to 3 players expected to compete for starting positions and not the entire group of 22, most of which were entirely depth. I’m not downplaying their interest in players they’ve worked with, at all, I’m pointing out saying because they’ve targeted a bunch of Panthers (most of which depth) doesn’t mean that ALL of them didn’t pan out and it was a catastrophe like many here believe. I don’t understand why it’s a major issue that they brought in the best FA defensive end when we needed a pass rusher, signed Williams for $2.5M to compete for an o-line job and tossed Klein (coming from the Saints) money to be the 3rd LB? Can toss in Star too. So 4 starters in 4 years came from Carolina? How’s that for narrowing it down to the relevant field? I’ll gladly take some time to look into it, but the points remains that YOU don’t actually know either yet you’re making assumptions... you’re basing it off of the fact that the media points out we have former Panthers and they mention it from time to time.