JGMcD2

Brandon McManus was put on the COVID list today... needs 5 straight days of negative tests to be eligible for Saturday. They have Taylor Russolino as their PS kicker that they would elevate in the event he can’t play.

Actually we would have to drop 2 games in order for Cleveland to pass us in the event they win the AFC North, I misspoke. 1) Is H2H, which we don’t have 2) This is conference record... We’re currently 7-2 here and Cleveland is 6-3. They would actually need us to lose twice down the stretch to get that tiebreaker because if we tied here at both teams with 9-3 conference records... 3) Common opponents (min. 4) this tiebreaker actually wouldn’t qualify because we only have 3 common opponents. 4) It would move to this tiebreaker which is SOV and I actually don’t think Cleveland can pass us with this at all.

No, that doesn’t matter. I’m pretty sure all the savants here say that the most important thing is PD? Or is it signature wins? Wait it’s blow out wins? Someone can confirm? Right @High Football IQ? It doesn’t matter that Miami’s SOV is less than half of our SOV. It just matters that their PD is 85... that’s why they’re going to win out and win the division!

The Browns would have to win out with Pittsburgh dropping a game to Indy or Cincy. We would also have to drop a game in order for Cleveland to become the #2 seed. We currently would have the tie breaker over them even if they won tonight.

Are you telling me this game may come down to... Avery Williamson vs Tyler Matakevich? Marquee matchup! 😉

Haha my bad... I must have missed the back and forth on the origins story! If I saw I would’ve chimed in.

No, not scouting. You’re the total package. You do it all... cap management, player valuation, pro scouting, college scouting and more. You wouldn’t be a scout, you’d be a front office executive with the near perfect track record you claim to have. You even said it here when asked about if you’re ever wrong: “Sure but very rarely on TSW. The amount of hotly contested takes of import that I've been spot on about on this site over the past 22 years even surprises me. I'm the GOAT in that regard here and it's not even close.” If you’re as good as you say you are, you wouldn’t have to worry about low pay. Teams would hand you a blank check.

Saint BADOLBILZ! I really want to know if you have such a stellar record on team building, talent evaluation, player valuation and trade value why haven’t you applied to work in a front office? I’m being serious, if you’re as good as you tell everyone you are @BADOLBILZ why are you wasting your talents on TBD?

Haha I love that ‘Lil Dirty is public knowledge now... cracks me up.

Yes, for sure. Plus we faced Watt last year as well when their defense was at full(er) strength and managed to a good him wrecking the game... that being said he played a great game 4 tackles, 2 TFL, 2 QB hits, 1 FF, 0.5 sack and 1 PD. Hard to outright stop him, just gotta keep him in check.

19 actually makes sense... it’s what I’d expect from Josh, really. It’s the type of player he is... the fumbles that he recovers on sacks go into this. I’d like to see the rest of the list... I’d be surprised if there aren’t a bunch of QBs right around there at 17 or 16.

I felt this way against the 49ers as well. If we are able to give Josh enough time to throw I think we’re able to continue to pass at a high volume. The Chargers blew us up two weeks ago and it caused major issues... Watt has that same ability to do what Bosa did. It’s going to come down to protection and getting Josh in a rhythm. If he gets some passes completed early on that first drive and moves the ball down the field like he’s been used to most of the year.. it’s going to be a long day for Pittsburgh.

If Avery Williamson’s scouting ability is the difference in the game, then more power to him. I’m sure it will help give players and understanding of things but the last time he saw us we were kind of discombobulated. I think we’re a different team from week 1 and a different team from when we played the Jets a second time as well.

No, humility isn’t for the Bills fan base... It’s for you... you preach and preach and preach in a manner of which nobody wants to hear. You can be the most insightful mind in the world, but the manner in which you display your intelligence, it is just grotesque. Your takes are not the issue, at least with me. It’s the delivery and you fail to realize that time and time again. I think everyone agrees that this regime can do things better, heck, this regime prides itself on constantly improving, but you beat the proverbial dead horse with your takes. You might as well start calling yourself Saint BADOLBILZ. Your behavior reminds me quite a bit of Saint Doug Marrone, a very high opinion of yourself and the need to make everyone aware of it.

Humility is an amazing thing. People keep telling him otherwise, but he is always right without exception. You can have as much intelligence as you want, and I think @BADOLBILZ is very intelligent... but the holier than thou gimmick really turns people off. Maybe someone should look inward and try another approach?

Is there anything you’ve actually ever been wrong about? If you’re this perfect, I’ll put in a word with some friends across the 4 major sports...

I still don’t understand the playoff argument. Maybe a few of the all knowing savants on this board can help me out... McDermott and Beane are criticized for the “lucky” Bills team that went 9-7 and lost 10 - 3 on the road in the first round of playoffs. Maybe not criticized, but at the very least their accomplishment is written off by these savants. Then they improved, went 10-6 and had a lead late and various circumstances contributed to a collapse in the second half which lead to an over time loss. Sad moment. A moment that shouldn’t have happened. Oh, but wait, it seems to have been a moment that became a catalyst for this regime to look within and fix things that went wrong... which our fine savants LOVE to gloss over. This regime does this very well.. process, growth mindset, whatever you want to call it. You may laugh or not understand but the very best run organizations in and out of sports practice those things. So I ask the same question I’ve asked numerous times, if the Bills don’t make the playoffs in 2017 and only went last year, does the narrative from our fine savants change? Does it change to McBeane is bad because they’ve only been to the playoffs 1 time in 3 years rather than they’re lucky AND bad because they haven’t won a playoff game yet? You see because you can’t have it both ways... you can’t say they were lucky and shouldn’t have been there... but also punish them for not winning that game. In no way am I arguing that the expectation this year shouldn’t be winning at least 1 playoff game... but tighten up your logic for a second. EDIT: Just to make a final point, any person that has to assert to you that they are fair, subjective and even handed absolutely can’t be. If they were all of those things, people would recognize that on their own. Someone telling you all of those things immediately proves that they are NOT, because they’re attempting to rationalize their point of view as unbiased.

I forgot how poorly he played at linebacker that game! That’s probably the reason why McDermott didn’t have enough confidence to put him back out there in the Cardinals game to defend the Hail Mary...

Summary from those folks... They’re lucky... whether it’s the playoff appearances or something like drafting Josh... pure luck. They don’t draft well, do well in free agency or in trades. Cody Ford over Metcalf, Mahomes, Oliver a bust. Star too much money, too many Panthers, traded Teller, Jefferson is better than Diggs. I don’t think I missed anything?

Josh blew a 16 point lead ?

You’re so spot on... I heard Bud Selig say numerous times (it was a quote he said his father used to use a lot). “You’re only good or bad by comparison.” Metrics really don’t exist, and analysts really don’t do anything to subjectively compare the value the GMs bring to their organization. They’ll hoot and holler about superstars if it’s good for ratings, or they put up fantasy points. It causes folks to magnify a few transactions. The only metric right now is really wins, which really at the end of the day is all that matters, the Bills are in the top 10 in the NFL since 2017 when McBeane arrived. That’s compared to the rest of the NFL... that’s a pretty solid accomplishment for a team that was lucky to be 9-7 and then went 6-10 the following year in a re-tooling season. Throw in the fact, that subjectively this regime has done better in free agency and drafted better than pretty much every team in the league over that span. Check out this post here for more detail on that claim... it’s true, people don’t realize it, but when compared to the rest of the league (which IMO is all that matters) these guys are killing it. They’re not without flaws, they have things the need to address and clean up, but at the end of the day, when compared to their peers they are elite.

Methodology App. V, §2 lays out the process of calculating the value of CFAs. §2(a) begins the calculation as follows to all players in the league Start with the Average Per Year (APY) of the contract signed. Subtract from the APY any money that the compensatory formula does not count3. Rank these players by adjusted APY in descending order, and assign points to each player, equal to [number of leaguewide players]-[rank]. Add anywhere from 25 to 100 points for players who played a percentage of snaps on offense or defense in the range of 25% to 100%. (Kickers and punters are given a different point addition unrelated to snap counts.) Add 20 or 5 points for postseason honors as determined by the AP’s All Pro list, and the PFWA’s All NFL/All Conference list. Once the Final Numerical Value (FNV) as described above has been tallied, each UFA is given a value that either assigns him as a CFA to a particular round, ranging from the 3rd to the 7th, or does not qualify him as a CFA at all. App. V, §3(b) sets these round cutoffs in a percentile manner, as follows: Once each team’s list of CFAs lost and gained are determined and valued, one-to-one cancellations are applied. Cancellations work as follows, as stated in App. V, §3(a): A CFA gained by a team cancels out the highest-valued available CFA lost that has the same round valuation of the CFA gained. If there is no available CFA lost in the same round as the CFA gained, the CFA gained will instead cancel out the highest-available CFA lost with a lower round value. A CFA gained will only cancel out a CFA lost with a higher draft order if there are no other CFAs lost available to cancel out. Any team that has more CFAs lost than CFAs gained will then be eligible for compensatory picks for the CFAs lost that were not cancelled out by CFAs gained.

I also love how they’re “lucky to get to the playoffs with the worst point differential in 30 years” but it’s also held against them that they didn’t continue to get lucky and lost 10 - 3 against the Jaguars.

That’s not how it works. It’s based on the contract they sign in FA and the number of FA you sign and the net value.

I think he ends up jumping Fields, and a few folks tied in have started murmuring about it. We shall see.