JGMcD2

The Last 10 NFL MVPs and Offensive Player of the Week 2010 NFL MVP Tom Brady had 2 OPW. Only Michael Vick had more (3). Josh Freeman and Aaron’s Rodgers also had 2. Brady was the first unanimous MVP this season after receiving 50/50 votes. 2011 NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers had 3 OPW. Brees and Brady also had 3 OPW. Roethlisberger, Arian Foster and Ray Rice all had 2. Brees (3) was the MVP runner up. Rodgers received 48/50 MVP votes. 2012 NFL MVP Adrian Peterson had 2 OPW. Brady, Manning, and Rodgers all had 2 as well. Peyton Manning (2) finished 2nd in the MVP vote. Peterson received 30.5/50 MVP votes. 2013 NFL MVP Peyton Manning had 3 OPW. Drew Brees had 3, while Rivers, Dalton and Foles had 2. Brady (1) finished second in the NFL MVP vote. Manning received 49/50 MVP votes. 2014 NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers had 4 OPW. Ryan, Wilson, Roethlisberger, and Justin Forsett all had 2. JJ Watt (2) finished 2nd in the MVP voting. Rodgers received 31/50 MVP votes. 2015 NFL MVP Cam Newton had 5 OPW. Mariota, Roethlisberger, Fitzpatrick, Cousins, Brees, E. Manning and Julio Jones all had 2. Brady and Palmer finished 2nd in the MVP vote. Newton received 48/50 MVP votes. 2016 NFL MVP Matt Ryan had 2 OPW. This was tied with Brady, Rodgers, D. Johnson. Only Jay Ajayi had more (3) in 2016. Brady (2) finished 2nd in the MVP vote and Derek Carr (1) was tied with Ezekiel Elliot (1) for 3rd. Ryan received 24/50 MVP votes. 2017 NFL MVP Tom Brady had 3 OPW. This was tied with Todd Gurley for the most in the NFL in 2017. Rivers and Wilson both had 2. Gurley (3) finished 2nd in the MVP vote and Carson Wentz (1) finished 3rd. Brady received 40/50 MVP votes. 2018 NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes had 2 OPW. This was tied with Brees, Firzpatrick, Gurley, Roethlisberger and Amari Cooper for the most in the NFL in 2018. Brees (2) finished 2nd in the MVP vote. Mahomes received 41/50 MVP votes. 2019 NFL MVP Lamar Jackson had 5 OPW. This was the most in the NFL in 2019. Deshaun Watson finished with 3 AFC OPW and Wilson, Prescott and Aaron Jones finished with 2. Lamar Jackson was the unanimous MVP receiving 50/50 MVP votes. Offensive Player of the Month and MVPs Since 2010 9/10 MVPs have won at least 1 Offensive Player of the Month in the season that they were MVP. The only player that didn’t win one was Cam Newton in 2015. There have been a few players who have won multiple Offensive Player of the Month awards in the same season but have not won the MVP vote. Brady (2) in 2011 where Rodgers had 3. Manning (2) in 2012 where Peterson had 1. D. Murray (2) in 2014 where Rodgers had 1. A. Brown (2) in 2015 where Newton had 0. Gurley (2) in 2017 where Brady had 1. What does this mean in 2020? How does 2020 stack up to the last 10 years, it will be interesting to look at. So far we’re through 15 out of 17 weeks in the season. Josh currently leads the league with 4 Offensive Player of the Week awards. Kyler Murray also won this week, so he now has 3 on the season. Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson and Dalvin Cook all have 2. Aaron Rodgers, one of the favorites for MVP has 1. The only player to have sole possession of the most Offensive Player of the Week awards in the NFL and NOT win the MVP in the last 10 years was Michael Vick (3) in 2010, when he lost out to Brady (2). Josh looks to be in line to win potentially win Offensive Player of the Month in December after already winning 2/3 player of the week awards. If he won, it would be his 2nd this season (September). The other current winners are Wilson (September), Brady and Henry (October) and Mahomes and Cook (November). If Josh were to win 2 Offensive Player of the Month awards and not win the MVP, he would be the 6th players since 2010 for that to happen to, but he would be the first player to have won the most Player of the Week and Player of the Month Awards and not win the MVP.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/fivethirtyeight.com/methodology/how-our-nfl-predictions-work/amp/

The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%. A player's Elo rating is represented by a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the high-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the low-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.

Yes.

Yeah, this is a perfectly rational take. Thanks for using your prefrontal cortex!

Right, my scenario was for an outright clinch prior to week 17. Likely the only scenario we can rest our starters... which would be beneficial given Miami beats Oakland this week.

I don’t think we clinch there because of the possibility of a Steelers/Browns tie week 17. If Tennessee wins next week, they have a chance to finish 12-4 with us (assuming a Dolphins loss) and Pitt/Cle tie (slim chance). We can’t clinch without a Tennessee loss this week.

In any situation that we are tied at 12-4 with 2 or more teams we are the #2 seed. So if the Steelers and Browns are both 11-4 and going into week 17 we are in good shape there, because one of those teams will have to finish 12-4 with exception of a tie. The possible tie in week 17 between them is the only reason we can’t clinch next week with a Bills win and Pitt loss.

Big news. Bills clinch the #2 Seed next week with the following.. PIT Loss (vs IND) TEN Loss (vs GB) BUF Win (vs NE) We will know they results of the Steelers and Titans games before we go to bed on Sunday!

Edmunds needs to go. Sell high, he’s not that good. (I am making fun of all the idiots on this board who don’t understand players aren’t robots and when the he hurt it impacts them)

Actually yeah, Baker and Tannehill should probably be in consideration as well... Neither really put up eye popping yardage though... Josh had just short of 400 total yards and 4 TDs. All those TDs called back on the one drive cost him a 5th... which would have made him the favorite IMO.

That’s not what I said, of course players don’t always love everywhere they were. You realize there are only 32 teams... so players have to take a job somewhere right... it doesn’t always mean they want to go to a particular organization. In recent years players have been choosing other organizations over New England, because they didn’t know what was going on with Brady. People came to play with Brady, not play for Belichick. Every player in the NFL had their family to think about. The Patriots had 8 opt-outs and the next highest team was 5. The average was 2. I’m not saying it was all Belichick, but when the man is known for a particularly grating style and you can make $350K for doing nothing and have your contract toll the next year... maybe you do it? Of course the opt outs are coming back, they have no other choice, they‘re under contract with New England and have millions of dollars sitting there for them after their year off. Don’t tell me they could retire, because if they do that they forfeit the remainder of their contract. No, I don’t think Brady stays. All indications were that Brady had been done with Belichick for a few years and wanted to prove himself on his own. No amount of money was bringing him back. The relationship was tense. The only reason Brady was still there was because of Kraft according to numerous sources. I said Belichick is particularly grating, which a lot of players have commented on. The main difference (which you just agreed with me on in your post) between Bill and his protégés is that they have tried to copy his behavior without a HOF QB. Without Brady or a QB of that nature, Belichick’s style doesn’t work long term. Bill O’Brien flamed our because he tried to be Belichick... Bill O’Brien the person got Bill O’Brien fired. He traded Hopkins because Hopkins hated him. JJ Watt didn’t even like the guy... his confrontation with O’Brien earlier this year was the impetus of a player revolt and O’Brien’s subsequent firing. Flores has adopted a totally different personality after the beginning of last year. He’s being himself not a Belichick rip off. He’s the reason I specified the concept of trying to replicate his behavior and not his system.

Looking at the numbers coming into today it looks like it would likely be between... Josh Allen Deshaun Watson Derrick Henry Stefon Diggs Darren Waller You can probably toss out Watson and Waller because both of their teams lost and Watson’s stat line was pretty similar to Josh. So... Allen Henry Diggs Can Josh get his 4th AFC Offensive Player of the Week?

I mean plenty of players have left and made it clear they didn’t like playing there or the culture there. Look at all the players who opted out this season, more than any other team in the league. Tom just left for a variety of reasons related to the reason he was treated by Bill over the years. Belichick’s schtick only works when you’re having a ton of success. Look at all of the countless Patriots coaches who have gone on to be head coaches, tried to replicate Bill‘s behavior and failed miserably. It takes a top notch QB to get away with what Bill does and win consistently. That goes away and they become Matt Patricia or Bill Belichick on the Cleveland Browns.

Uhhh case and point?

I REALLY want Kadarius Toney from Florida. He would be able to do a little bit of everything for us. He reminds me of Tyreek Hill. Dude is fast, breaks ankles, can take a handoff or throw a pass too (former QB). Would take over in McKenzie’s role and then grow with Josh post Brown. I think he’s a RD 2-3 pick. I’d like to see Zavan Collins (LB) from Tulsa in RD1 but he will likely be gone. I’d prefer Beane targets offensive lineman in FA. He’s done pretty well for himself with the bargain bin OL signings.

It has nothing to do with the production of the individual players and everything to do with the defense having to game plan around another receiving threat. Open things up is a pretty vague statement, it doesn’t necessarily mean increase his counting stats. His numbers may ultimately decline because there’s an additional target for JA. I didn’t realize having more weapons was a negative... pretty impressive how you framed it that way.

Also an FYI... Notre Dame fans stormed the field after they beat Clemson a few weeks back... they didn’t have their first positive test until 5 days ago. Only 1 of 191 players and it wasn’t related to the storming of the field which was much more egregious and put players in a far more compromising position than what we saw today. https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.tmz.com/2020/11/09/notre-dame-football-clemson-storm-field-ban-testing-students-fighting-irish/

Yeah that’s not really the point, like I said dumb on the players part without a doubt. For Gelber it’s likely going to burn bridges with guys in the locker room, for a beat writer that’s not a good place to be at all. If Gelber was smart he’d stay out of it and let they players dig their own graves, rather than pile on when he knows it’s likely going to be seen in another form anyway as you said.

Yeah I mean that’s reckless on the part of those 1-2 players, and whoever else may have done it. It’s not like the players were stationary the entire time and resting in a crowd of people. Their interactions with an individual person were less than 2-3 seconds, the likelihood of anything catastrophic happening has to be pretty low. Still not great, would prefer the highest level of caution possible. I would also like to add the players are clowns for posting these things of social media, but Bradley Gelber is also a clown with ZERO feel by screen recording them all and posting them in a more accessible way on Twitter.

I’m all for doing things the safest way possible and erring on the side of caution, players should have kept windows rolled up. With that being said based on the protocols the NFL put in place, players did absolutely nothing wrong.

This aged really well... what do you say now?

12 minutes from now.

Wilkinson is a friend of a friend... supposedly he’s semi-decent at guard but has been to putrid at T dating back to college.

This is literally agreeing with me in my entire premise which you laughed at and tried to pick apart... Now it’s up to you to decipher if he’s actually good or benefiting from a lacking receiving corps... I will use another example... was Robert Foster good or did he benefit from a lacking receiving corps? The Robert Foster #1 receiver argument was the same thing... it was dumb then and it’s dumb now. He was lucky that there was literally nobody else to throw to and the second actual upgrades arrived in the form of John Brown and Cole Beasley he went nearly unused and was rendered useless upon the arrival of Diggs and Davis. Perfect example of a player on a bad team putting up decent numbers solely because the team is bad, not because they’re a NFL starting caliber player. It’s the same concept. Got it. Only a month in 2016... so it’s just 2 seasons.