JGMcD2

I’m highly against the use of a pick in the top 2 rounds on a RB, and I’m mot super high on a RD3 RB. I am pretty much anti-RB in the first two days. This is the best approach IMO. Even if Daboll doesn’t get help, this off-season for him needs to be spent examining high functioning run offenses and stealing components to applying to our offense. He’s more than capable of designing great schemes, I just don’t think he spent the proper amount of time. In my opinion that’s some stubbornness, but this regime is also super big on analytics and there’s no metric that will tell you to run instead of throw. We don’t need balance but we need the option. I understand this regime loves their ST guys, but if they’re a ST guy they need to be able to be confident in using them for a few touches a game.

Anyone advocating drafting a RB in RD1 is advocating throwing away a RD1 pick. Draft any other position. Fixing how we run the ball is far more important.

I’m honored to be the (bad) man to have created the number 1 definition in that thread.

Starting QB: This can also be referred to as a backup QB that wins 4 out of 5 games.

Yeah I mean I don’t think it’s a trend, if that’s what you’re trying to suggest. Major analytics guys that people trust like Ben Baldwin have been commenting all year on how Buffalo is the best team when it comes to in-game decision making in terms of win probability. I was upset with McDermott during the game, but I understand his reasoning. The guy admitted he was wrong and is reviewing it and will undoubtedly learn from it. It was really only a year ago when people were complaining that he didn’t use analytics enough. The man, like this team has grown tremendously year in and year out. Losing to KC sucked, but they’re clearly better. I’m not happy we lost, but I think it’s positive they’re going to have to go in and readjust for the future.

Ah I gotcha! Yeah, I really like Harris a lot. Love the way he runs, love what he can provide. I personally just wouldn’t touch him in RD1, but the I’m the anti-RD1 RB guy. I like him so much if the Bills took him in RD2 I’d be severely less upset, but still a little disappointed. I’ve been on guys like Zaven Collins and Toney for months now and would prefer them there. I think they provide what we need on either side of the ball. I actually loved the way Antonio Williams ran in week 17, I’d be curious to see what he can do in a full camp. He’s an example of why I have a hard time using a high pick on a RB. I mean he’s unproven, but he looked perfectly fine and didn’t cost significant draft capital. See Ekeler, Josh Robinson, etc.

Yeah for sure, but not at $12.5M a year. I would take Kamara or McCaffrey every day of the week over Henry and I’m perfectly fine spending the extra $4M to get RB1 numbers with WR2 numbers from the same player.

Don’t get me wrong, he’s very good, but I feel like unless he gets a clean block upfront he’s useless. He needs a full head of steam and to get to the second level in order to be truly dangerous. I don’t think he create enough for himself. At least when I’ve watched him play, I’ve been underwhelmed by his ability in the backfield to turn something into nothing. He’s truly fun to watch in the open field, but he doesn’t get there without help. You can probably make an argument like that related to just about any RB. That’s why I just don’t find significant value in a RB that can’t be flexed out wide and provide in a variety of ways. Give me a McCaffrey, Kamara, Gibson, Hines or Ekeler type RB all day that can create in different scenarios without the consistent dependence on their offensive line. I would never touch a RB in the first two rounds, and I’d be hard pressed to grab one in RD3 unless they can do multiple things. Oddly enough the dual purpose skill set seems to be undervalued across the league, but those types of RBs are the most valuable in a modern offense.

Now for my real take. This is probably a win for the Rams, but Detroit didn't do too bad for themselves. The Rams were very clearly sick of Goff. I know people are going to rip on Stafford, but the bottom line is he's an upgrade one Goff. The way we've seen the NFL go, QBs can play until they're 40 years old in the right system. Stafford will be 33 for the entirety of this upcoming season. He's moving to extremely friendly QB system, one that I feel propped Goff up. I don't think Goff was as bad as his rookie year, but he's also not as good as he's looked playing for McVay at times. The picks are tough to swallow, but moving Goff alone was going to cost a RD1 pick, no doubt about it (See Osweiler, Brock). The Rams have also done VERY well without using RD1 picks. Goff was their last RD1 pick in 2016, since McVay arrived in 2017 the Rams are the 4th winningest team in the NFL. In that same time period, they've done extremely well using the picks they've had to extract value. In my Draft Pick Analysis (found here), done two different ways, the Rams rank 6th and 7th in extracting value with their picks. The strategy has worked well for them over a 4 year period, doesn't mean it will continue to, but they're in win-now mode perpetually. This doesn't actually count (but this tells me maybe it does count), but I believe the Rams relationship with new Detroit GM Brad Holmes (just came from LAR) really helped them execute this deal and because Holmes was a minority hire, the Rams got two picks in return for him. It's ALMOST Goff, 2022 and 2023 1st and 2021 3rd in return for Stafford, 2021 and 2022 3rd. On Detroit's end, Stafford had no place in a long term rebuild. They had had to move him and get picks. Taking Goff's contract sucks, but they're not going anywhere in the near term so it's ok to take the cap hit for the extra pick... it won't kill them. If they can somehow manage to flip Goff here, i'll be impressed. I think it's a good move, but obviously they need to find another taker. LAR felt they could move him regardless of a deal like this, I wouldn't be shocked if DET thinks they can do the same. He's not helping them in the short term either.

Might change this to my Avatar and throw "Bad Man" into my profile. I'm adopting it as my own.

That's how you do it right? That's how you make a good post. I've been watching and learning... finally earned my stripes.

Beane is asleep at the wheel. Why wouldn't he trade Josh Allen for Jared Goff, 2 1sts and a 3rd?!?! Goff has won a Conference Title Game and Josh Allen hasn't. When you can get that type of experience from a QB with picks to boot, you do it! Beane must have known that he would completely screw up the extra draft picks and draft more busts. The sooner we get rid of Beane, the better off this franchise is.

This is where McDermott’s culture comes into play. Dawkins, Tre and Josh are legit stars that get how things go and set the tone for how players are to react to things. 2/3 have received their money and are happy as clams, the other one is going to get PAID. This regime takes care of their guys... when the time is right. They’ve proven that. You nailed it, they already treated Diggs with respect from Day 1. He knows that they take care of guys when it’s the appropriate time, and he will get taken care of. He LOVES his teammates and you can tell. It was that way in MIN too... and they all loved him right back... he just didn’t trust the front office because they lied to him, and it’s documented. The issue is that some of us follow this team to varying degrees. Somebody like me and presumably you know all of the nitty gritty because we’ve consumed every piece of content imaginable related to this team. Others are still HUGE fans, but maybe they don’t have the ability to know all the details. If someone actually knows Diggs, they KNOW he’s a catalyst for positive things to come.

Going to be pretty hard to find significant savings with a Singletary replacement.

Well this isn’t actually true... unless you just believe that development doesn’t exist and a player should be cut when they don’t perform to outside expectations immediately.Which in that case you’d be advocating we move on from Josh after year 1 or 2. The majority of former Panthers brought here were 1 and done. They’ve moved on from underperforming draft picks in a reasonable about of time. You’ve got to give players time to improve and grow. It’s not linear either. They’ve made mistakes for sure, but if I’m reading this correctly your premise is just to give up on guys and churn through bodies constantly. Do we need upgrades? Heck yeah we do. Every team does. With that in mind... we are legitimately one of the top 5 teams in the NFL, the ability to upgrade our players is harder than it was 4-5 years ago when we lacked talent everywhere. We have very few truly bad players, it just isn’t possible for us to have so many on a high performing football team. We may lack difference makers, but there’s not guarantee Felton or any other guy someone may suggest comes in and outperforms whoever they replace. Beane/McDermott know they need to constantly get better and I agree. That’s how you stay at the top, but to this point the good far outweighs the bad. To harp on the things you’re harping on is expecting them to be entirely perfect with every decision they make, if that’s your expectation you’re constantly going to be disappointed.

I mean it has nothing to do with the position... I’m not going to despise a guy because he provides little to no value on my favorite football team, that outside of my passion and interest has no bearing on my day to day life.

Thanks for nothing you useless piece of crap. (Sarcasm coming from me... but a real statement from most of the people on this board).

It’s not the best draft! It’s the most value... most bang for your buck. If you can separate the two it’ll change your perception. They’re not necessarily the same thing. The Bears didn’t necessarily have the 11th best draft (there are complex factors I’d have to add to figure that out) but they were the 11th best team at finding value with their picks. Penalized for Trubisky in RD1, rewarded for Eddie Jackson and Tarik Cohen In RD4. Njoku objectively has not been good for Cleveland. Peppers only played 2 seasons for them. Garrett is less valuable than guys drafted after him like Mahomes. If you don’t mind me asking, out of curiosity, what’s your profession? You’re really bright.

These are the overall results from 2017 to 2020. 8 out of 10 teams that were in the top in my analysis were also in the top 10 in this analysis. 8 out of 10 teams that were in the bottom 10 in my analysis were also in the bottom 10 of this analysis. The biggest riser was Dallas up 12 spots from 25 to 13 and the biggest faller was San Francisco down from 8 to 18. The average change in position between my analysis and this analysis was +/- 3 spots.

Alternate Surplus Value Method as suggested by @Billl I took every draft from 2017 to 2020 and matched up each player picked with the assigned draft points for that slot. This is what I called OLD_VAL. I used the draft points from Meers' Harvard Draft Value Chart. My rationale for that can be found in the then italicized section below. The Draft Value Chart (DVC) gained prominence in the 90’s after the Cowboys overhauled their roster through the draft, winning three Super Bowls that decade with a modest payroll. The actual usefulness of the chart for pre-draft trades has been debated for years afterwards, and in 2011 Harvard economics student Kevin Meers sought to improve the chart, explaining how the point values from the original basically were created arbitrarily and not based on any analysis or statistics. I used AV to objectively "re-draft" each draft class from 2017 to 2020. Each player in the re-draft was then matched up with corresponding points Meers' Harvard Draft Value Chart based on their new draft spot. This is what I called NEW_VAL. AV tie-breakers were awarded by giving the team who took a player at a lower draft slot in the real draft the higher draft slot in the re-draft. For example, Elijah McGuire and Trent Taylor both have the same DrAV with the Jets and 49ers respectively. Elijah McGuire is awarded the value for pick 117 in the redraft while Taylor is awarded the value for pick 118 in the redraft. This is because McGuire was selected in the 6th round (188) in 2017, while Taylor was selected in the 5th round (177). After finding both OLD_VAL and NEW_VAL I divided the NEW_VAL by OLD_VAL in order to find SURPLUS_VAL for each draft class. NEW_VAL/OLD_VAL = SURPLUS_VAL Here are the results for each draft class since 2017.

I’ve got a real sneaky feeling we will be playing KC week 1 and to open the season if they win the Super Bowl.

@Billl I replicated your method as you laid it out. It's not perfect either, but it's a different method conducted as objectively as possible based on your recommendation. I took every draft from 2017 to 2020 and matched up each player picked with the assigned draft points for that slot. This is what I called OLD_VAL. I used the draft points from Meers' Harvard Draft Value Chart. My rationale for that can be found in the then italicized section below. The Draft Value Chart (DVC) gained prominence in the 90’s after the Cowboys overhauled their roster through the draft, winning three Super Bowls that decade with a modest payroll. The actual usefulness of the chart for pre-draft trades has been debated for years afterwards, and in 2011 Harvard economics student Kevin Meers sought to improve the chart, explaining how the point values from the original basically were created arbitrarily and not based on any analysis or statistics. I used AV to objectively "re-draft" each draft class from 2017 to 2020. Each player in the re-draft was then matched up with corresponding points Meers' Harvard Draft Value Chart based on their new draft spot. This is what I called NEW_VAL. After finding both OLD_VAL and NEW_VAL I divided the NEW_VAL by OLD_VAL in order to find SURPLUS_VAL for each draft class. NEW_VAL/OLD_VAL = SURPLUS_VAL Any idea what you think happened before I share the results? DISCLAIMER: I have not included UDFA because the workload requires significantly more manual work. I also don't believe the UDFA process can be likened to the draft process because the process in acquiring players is drastically different than the draft. If I were to conduct an analysis on team's performance in identifying and gaining value from UDFA, it would likely need to be it's own separate analysis. UDFA is an open market bidding war, whereas the draft is simply that, a draft. Player's have very little leverage in the draft and teams have more leverage when it comes to acquiring the players they want but they're at the mercy of other teams taking the players that they want or to move around and acquire the players they covet.

Well I am not trying to get you to accept that Jaire Alexander and Kevin King are within 2.5 points of each other in terms of success as pros - they're not. That's where there is a disconnect with what I am doing and what you are saying. It's not in terms of success, it's in terms of value added based on their draft position. The way you're verbalizing your interpretation of what this is, is wrong. I am telling you that Green Bay, by drafting Jaire Alexander in the first round got extra value as compared to their peers in RD1 of 2018. I am telling you that Green Bay, by drafting Kevin King in the second round got less value as compared to their peers in RD2 of 2017. It's not an apples to apples comparison between Alexander and King because they were in two separate drafts in two separate rounds. The whole premise here is that each draft is its own event and teams can only succeed or fail in drafting in comparison to what their peers do in a given draft. Just for fun, if GB were to have taken a player who's performed like Kevin King in RD1 of 2018, say Donte Jackson (CB, CAR) and then in RD2 of 2017 they were to have taken a player who's performed like Jaire Alexander, say Marcus Williams (S, NO). They would be penalized for their RD1 pick in 2018 (bad value) and rewarded for their RD2 pick in 2017 (good value). It's grading GMs success based on value added compared to their peers, it's not grading player success.

It includes everything you want. It’s publicly available, you can read about it. Probably would’ve helped to understand what was in it before you blasted me and then ended up telling me your criteria is pretty much the exact same thing. The difference is that they were in two separate drafts. It’s all about GMs extracting value based on what is available to them in the player pool that year. It’s not saying Kevin King isn’t a bad pick, he’s a bad pick. He was rewarded a bit for having a decent season in 2019, albeit it’s probably a career year. It’s just that other GMs as a whole didn’t do a very good job of extracting value in that round, so Green Bay isn’t going to be punished severely when other teams missed as well. So yeah, you have half the round that are better pros than King, but half the round are just as bad, if not a little worse in terms of their return on value. All it’s doing is rewarding teams for getting value or punishing them for not. In this case they’re punished. It was a easier to miss in 2017 in RD2, so the Packers are punished, but not severely, based on how King has performed compared to his peers in that round thus far. It was harder to miss in 2018 in RD1, so the Packers are rewarded, but not significantly, based on how Alexander has performed compared to his peers in that round thus far. If they continue to go on the paths they’re going, Green Bay is only going to continue to be rewarded by Jaire Alexander and penalized by Kevin King. Again, it’s a snapshot. This is living and breathing as the players continue to play. You’re focusing too much on the 2020 version of Jaire Alexander and 2020 version of Kevin King. I’ve said it a million times, this isn’t perfect. Not even close... it’s my first crack at something that nobody else has attempted.

Well let’s look at Jaire Alexander over his first 3 years in the league by PFF grade 2018: 72.4 2019: 72.3 2020: 90.5 Here’s his AV over those 3 years 2018: 5 2019: 6 2020: 10 While he may be a shutdown corner now, he wasn’t playing like one all 3 years in the league. He’s been better than the average player in the first round of his draft class... you have to remember this is also just a snapshot in time as well. Things will change. If he continues to be a shutdown corner, they will continue to gain more value. At this point, he hasn’t provided that much more value than the average player drafted next to him in the first round. I am really glad that you listed your three criteria! Approximate Value incorporates both All-Pro selections and Pro Bowl selections when grading each player. It also weights All-Pro selections greater than it does Pro-Bowl selections. And while it doesn’t have the capability to include playoff games won (personally that’s an unstable number to throw in) it does reward players for playing/starting on better teams. Sounds like AV is pretty darn close to your criteria!