JGMcD2

I vote we get rid of Edmunds and replace him with a linebacker from the 1980s. We will then be able to stop all the elite running offenses in the league like the Ravens, Colts, Patriots and Rams. Our 1980s LB won’t be able to defend against the pass, but that’s ok.

They’re likely going to say kicking a FG before the half and then on their first possession in the 2nd half after KC kicked a FG on the opening drive. McDermott even agrees he should have been more aggressive there, but we love to beat a dead horse here. People have also neglected to mention that he was aggressive from the jump. He went for it on 4th down on the opening drive at the KC 48.

I said next to nothing, because relatively inexpensive. It’s not quite nothing but it’s next to it. Original round tender and right of first refusal tender cost you the same amount, they operate identically if the player is a UDFA. The minimum salary a player who has 3 years of service time can make is $825K. We’re going to likely pay him 150% more. If you want a similar caliber player in FA you’re paying Josh Norman money or more... it’s next to nothing in comparison to that as well. If memory serves me properly, teams don’t hand out 1st and 2nd round tenders too often and teams generally don’t pursue players with any level of tender. I believe Kareem Hunt received a 2nd round tender last year and no team gave him an offer sheet. EDIT: Looked a little deeper and my old memory was wrong, some of the better players normally get a RD2 tender. Hunt, Feiler, Hilton did last year. Nobody matched. If that’s all it takes to ensure Wallace stays for relatively cheap, I’m all for the RD2 tender. Good call.

I’m actually dead serious lol FanGraphs does their crowdsourcing for MLB player contracts and they’re almost nearly spot on when it comes to the value the player ends up receiving. Fans as a whole are all over the place, but if you get enough opinions in one place it could be a useful tool.

I would say it depends on the tender we give him. Likely going to be original round with no compensation attached.

Going to cost next to nothing, it’s an easy decision to tender IMO. I like this concept a lot. I’ve honestly always thought that crowdsourcing like this COULD be a valuable tool for front offices to use in their decision making process.

It was a joke... taken from a wild take in another thread.4 Wins in 5 games was the requirement of one poster for any backup QB... my response was that another name for that is a “starting QB.” If you can go .500 with your back up QB in there you’re in good shape.

Which playoff teams currently have better cap situations than Buffalo? And if we’re going to look at how they rank in terms of decision making it has to be centered around the last 4 years since they took over, you can’t applaud the Chiefs for ending up with Kelce when it happened 5 years before Beane and McDermott were in Buffalo and weren’t presented the opportunity to select him or not, or sign X free agent. Strictly looking at their decision making the last 4 years compared to their peers.

Well then yes, I agree with you on almost everything. I wasn’t quite sure of your position on certain portions, that’s why I continued to ask for clarification.

Okay, so there are two criteria that need to be met in order for it to be a good deal. We all seem to be in agreement that Buffalo is good enough to make a run, that’s why the conversation started, people want Buffalo to make a move. Criteria A is satisfied. Then we move on the criteria B. Is any GM going to go out and intentionally acquire a downgrade when making a splash move? Generally if you’re making a move, you’re making the move because you believe the player is an upgrade. So what happens if it doesn’t work out and they turn out to not be the missing piece that everyone thought they were getting? This could happen for a variety of reasons too. So now with the benefit of hindsight you’ll judge the decision based on the circumstances that management has no control over? Seems loaded.

Well then how do you determine it’s a good move ? If you’re mortgaging the future and are going to end up missing the playoffs for a few years and don’t win the Super Bowl, what makes it a good move?

Well wouldn’t it be a bad move if it doesn’t accomplish the goal of winning the Super Bowl? If the entire reason for making a splashy move is to win a Super Bowl and they fall short while making that move, doesn’t it make that move a bad move?

If I correctly recall my negotiations classes in law school... you never really want to fleece someone or “pull their pants down” so to speak because it’s bad long term for your reputation in future negotiations. Idk maybe I’m dumb?

We’ve had this argument too many times, so I’m going to take a different approach. What GM or organization do it better than Beane/Buffalo when it comes to not making mistakes? or Which playoff organization has a better cap situation? It can’t just be pure cap space because they all have guys that are set to be FA. I would say Indianapolis is a logical place to start, but they don’t have a QB, so idk if the overall situation is “better.”

I mean I wouldn’t say that’s the case at all. The difference between missing the playoffs and making the playoffs is that when you make the playoffs you have a chance at winning it all. So it comes down to would you rather have one really good chance that’s not guaranteed or have numerous middling chances over time that also aren’t guaranteed. I don’t know the actual answer or what the data would say, but my gut says more chances means better shot. You throw out a dud with your “loaded team” in the divisional round and it’s all for nothing or that key player you trade for gets hurt Week 1 and then what? The reason I’m not for throwing it all in to match the Chiefs is because we’re on different timelines. It took them 8 years to get to this point they’re at now with the talent they have. I’m not trying to cheat the timeline for a 1 really good chance that still might not even cut it.

We agree then. He played himself out of becoming a backup down the stretch. I thought he was on a similar path to Bridgewater and Winston where they had to take deals as a backup QBs even though they’re really not. I was being sarcastic. It’s a joke from a bad take from another thread. I was advocating for Trubisky as the Bills backup back in October/November. Before he came back in to start and managed to make himself $10-$12M a year.

So you won’t complain if they take a shot, fall short and go back to being 7-9 to 9-7 for a few years? I mean I don’t necessarily agree with that stance in line 1. I guess I’m more conservative in nature and would rather have a chance each season and make a run than try and manufacture a chance and still have no guarantee. I would agree with you that this year isn’t the time to do that though, if they’re going to do it at all it would be best served to wait and see how next year plays out because then you start that clock on the window absolutely closing.

I was being sarcastic. It’s a joke from a bad take from another thread. I was advocating for Trubisky as the Bills backup back in October/November. Before he came back in to start and managed to make himself $10-$12M a year.

The only way Trubisky can be our backup QB is if he’s capable of winning 4/5 games as a backup? If you can’t do that, then you throw out that idea and move on to your next option.

Right, and we can make a legitimate argument we were the 2nd best team in the playoff this year. It just so happens we ran into the first best team and there’s a clear gap between the two. Is mortgaging the future to have a better chance of beating the best team the right decision? What happens if you don’t? You get excited about the fact you tried and then diddle around for 4-5 years trying to get back to the dance and start all over?

But wouldn’t your probably of winning a Super Bowl increasingly the more often you’re in the playoffs? The playoffs are ultimately a crapshoot. I feel like it’s more of a risk going all in on 1-2 seasons and falling short and setting yourself back 4-5 years than it is constantly being competitive and going on a run 1/10 of those seasons? I’m not advocating to avoid taking a big swing here and there either... I’m just trying to look at the two trains of thought.

The process is imperfect. I understand people want it to be as easy as “draft one of the best 32 players and have a good 1st round pick.” There are so many factors that contribute to a guy not succeeding. Never been further than 50 miles away from home and how he’s on the other side of the country. Dad died. Another might believe in lizard people. These are people at the end of the day... nothing is going to be a science when it comes to selecting a player. You can do your best to mitigate risk and have success... but I’m not sure there’s one employer in the world that has a 100% hit rate on new hires. Some bust, you go back to the drawing board. The issue here is, it’s not a free market. You’re operating with a limited set of players and can’t “re-do” when a pick doesn’t work out. You can fix your process, but you’re subject to an entirely different pool of candidates to gather information from. There’s merit to what the Rams are doing, I’m not sure it’s sustainable unless they can continue to have a lot of success in the later rounds and UDFA. The value in the 1st round pick comes from the contract more than anything... it’s a cost controlled and you’re underpaying the player for their performance. Once that first contract is up, it doesn’t really matter anymore. If the Rams want proven, I don’t blame them. They just better have the ability to hit elsewhere.

I have the Bills 2020 draft objectively as the most value extracted among all 32 teams draft classes this season. Bills best at extracting value from the draft since 2017.

Who said the window is now? Probably fans and the media. What about McDermott and Beane preaching sustained success screams “the window is now to make it to a SB” ? I see you’ve joined the Zaven Collins fan club

I guess the issue is, was he actually that good or did the offensive line help? I don’t think he was as bad as he was in Buffalo, but he wasn’t as good as he was in Seattle. I’d still rather have a guy who can create for himself and isn’t dependent on their offensive line. Creating for yourself doesn’t require you to run either, pass catching helps. I think a back like Lynch and Henry is really useful, but I wouldn’t build my offense around them or place emphasis on them.