JGMcD2

Glad he’s getting closer to a decision. While I like Stefanski and the direction the Browns are going, I just think that’s the worst landing spot for Watt. I don’t think they’re ready to win a SB this year and 2022, maybe. They played such a weak schedule this year and were extremely inconsistent. A lot of individual players on that team and I can’t see Baker Mayfield out dueling Mahomes or Allen. His chances at a SB with Buffalo are better, but still severely limited with KC being the top dog. It would make more sense than Cleveland, but still probably not the best spot to win a SB. I think GB is the most logical choice for him, it’s just a matter of if they move things around with the cap. The NFC is a mess. GB has shown under LaFleur they’re going to be damn good in the regular season and they’ve been on the cusp of the SB two years in a row. Epic collapses, but it’s the easiest path IMO. Obviously he has other criteria... cap space, culture and supporting cast.

You said... “How did he (Daboll) not see the gap prior to giving him (Peterman) the start?” I literally highlighted it and pointed it out and you’ve refused to acknowledge that’s what you said. Referring to the gap between Josh Allen and Nathan Peterman. The option was either start Josh Allen or Nathan Peterman.... there was no other QB. The implication you made was that Daboll didn’t do anything to avoid having Peterman start. AJ McCarron wasn’t an option even though you cherry picked some numbers to make it look like it - convenient you glossed over that fact this time around. Nathan Peterman failed because he sucks. He looked better under Daboll than he did the year prior in his first start against the Chargers (not saying much at all) but he still sucked. It was his second start not his first, you’ve refused to acknowledge that either. He looked just as putrid a year before... but it’s Daboll’s fault? The guy just absolutely sucks... Again, continuing to harp on Nathan Peterman as a way to say Daboll isn’t a good OC is silly. It would be great if you could just acknowledge that instead of trying to continue to prop up a poor argument. I’m confident we could find common ground on Daboll elsewhere, but this literally makes zero sense? Here you go... who was the other option to start? It was Josh Allen or Nathan Peterman... what was Brian Daboll’s decision supposed to be? Oh and this one too... who was starting over Peterman? The implication is because the talent gap is wide it should have been Allen over Peterman. The fact that there are 2 QBs on the roster at the time and it’s Peterman and Allen means that it’s Allen.

Calm down? You told me I was “making things up” even though you clearly lied about what YOU said and have yet to admit you said it. It’s okay to be wrong, especially when it’s as blatant as it is right now... You’re talking about preseason performance? Nathan Peterman absolutely blew McCarron out of the water during the preseason. Here you are again being flat out wrong. Peterman started the 3rd preseason game... McCarron labored through the 4th. Week 1 vs Carolina Peterman: 9/10 for 118 yards 1 TD and 1 INT McCarron: 7/10 for 116 yards 0 TD and 0 INT Week 2 vs Cleveland Peterman: 8/10 for 113 yards 1 TD and 0 INT McCarron: 3/6 for 12 yards 0 TD and 0 INT Week 3 vs Cincinnati Peterman: 16/21 for 200 yards 2 TD and 0 INT McCarron: DID NOT PLAY Week 4 vs Chicago Peterman: DID NOT PLAY McCarron: 13/34 for 156 yards 3 TD and 2 INT TOTAL: 3 Games each Peterman: 33/41 80% COMP% 431 yards 4 TD and 1 INT McCarron: 23/50 46% COMP% 284 yards 3 TD and 2 INT You’re just so far out of your element. You’re so heavily entrenched in the first game Daboll had called for the Bills with Nathan Peterman that you’re not even recognizing the growth. I’m going to point something out to you about player development, it’s really a novel concept. It’s what Daboll did and whether you want to believe it worked or not fine, you’re clearly not able to comprehend how played development works... but here. Josh Allen was a raw player... Josh Allen needed to experience things against good competition. Brian Daboll had some training wheels on for Josh, but it was a pretty conscious effort (it’s been talked about) to just try and expose him to everything possible so he can learn. So yes, he ran his scheme... and Josh learned by doing that. Instead of running some gimmicky Greg Roman offense or Sean McVay offense to mask the deficiencies of his QB... he let him go out and get better. You don’t get better when you’re not allowed to work on your weaknesses in a high speed setting. Working on it in a game is the best environment to do it... I promise you... I literally do this for a living. You’re putting an inordinate amount of stock into the Ravens game 3 years ago with Nathan Peterman at QB. It’s really quite strange. The facts are... Josh Allen was NEVER EVER starting week 1 his rookie year. The organization was doing everything possible to make sure it didn’t happen. It wasn’t Daboll’s decision. Nathan Peterman FAR outperformed AJ McCarron in the preseason and earned the opportunity to start over McCarron... again because there was zero chance Josh was ever starting. Nathan Peterman failed miserably because he’s not good. It wasn’t his 1st NFL start like you stated... it was his 2nd... the first was the year prior with Rick Dennison and was just as bad. Peterman is just bad. He’s also NOT the backup QB in Las Vegas. He’s the 3rd string QB who spent 2019 on the PS and then was injured and spent this year behind Derek Carr and Marcus Mariota when all 3 were healthy. If it weren’t for Jon Gruden’s infatuation with him, he’d be coaching his local HS team. Stop with your weird Peterman thing as a way to say Daboll isn’t a good OC. It’s literally the single dumbest argument I’ve ever seen on this board. You can cite SO MANY other reasons that Daboll isn’t a good OC and I’ll probably agree in some fashion. Failures in CLE, MIA and KC... stubbornness, inability to run the football, ego... honestly anything is a fine argument but this just makes you looking incredibly, let me stress the word... INCREDIBLY dumb.

I explained the chart to you. I want to make sure I’m getting it right then... you’re saying given that Josh Allen is able to hit his check down options more often... there is room for us to run more plays? I’m honestly kind of confused, partly by you and partly by myself. I don’t think running more plays fixes any gaps in our offense? Sorry for the confusion.

You literally said it right here... WHY DIDN’T THE OC (DABOLL) SEE THIS (THE GAP) PREVIOUS TO THE TEAM GIVING HIM (PETERMAN) THE START? Don’t say absolutely idiotic things and then have no way to defend them. This is all based on the premise that the OC is the sole person deciding the starting QB AND completely neglecting the fact that Josh Allen wasn’t starting Week 1 regardless of if our QB was Nathan Peterman, Nate Robinson or a guy they grabbed working at a Nathan’s hot dog stand.

This doesn’t even make any sense and using it as a way to knock Daboll is just absurd. It’s literally one of the biggest reaches I’ve ever seen on this board and that’s not an exaggeration. Everyone and their mother knew Josh Allen was better than Nathan Peterman. The Bills spent a 5th round pick on Peterman and a 1st round pick on Allen. You think Daboll sat there and said “Oh boy, let’s draft this Allen kid even though Peterman is better” and then watched them in camp and said “Yeah, he’s significantly better we can’t start Allen.” They made the call to start Peterman because they were going to try and let Josh sit an watch for as long as possible... it has nothing to do with saying Peterman was better than Josh. If you seriously think anyone in the building, especially Daboll thought Peterman was better it’s not even worth continuing. Literally the biggest, most nonsensical reach I’ve seen to date.

Significant gains as it relates to offensive success. Running more plays doesn’t necessarily mean we’re having more success offensively. Nothing suggests to me you need more plays to have more success on offense. 2018 and 2019 Chiefs ran less than 1K plays, Packers ran less than 1K plays this year. The Bucs ran less plays than us this year. I need to look deeper but it doesn’t seem like a team needs to run more than 1,034 plays to be a top offense in this league. I get what you’re trying to say there with converting 3rd Downs, as it leads to more plays. We were also pretty good at that as well during the course of the year and it will be hard to significantly improve. Yes, more conversations would have helped, but so would a 1 play 80 yard bomb to Diggs. We ran more plays than the Chiefs that game too BTW. 72 to 65. Oddly enough we ran less plays in the games we won and ran more plays in the game we lost in the playoffs.

It was sarcastic...

Well what I am trying to say is that because we’re above the median and in the 3rd quartile, there may be room for growth, but I don’t think the ability for growth is large enough to strive for and I do not believe it’s going to provide any significant gains. Yes, we’re above the median. We’re also right around the 3rd quartile, the difference between Q3 and the max in my opinion is somewhat random. There’s nothing that tells me better offenses run more plays, it seems to be random, but I need to explore further. I don’t think an extra 60 plays over 16 games is going to create any significant gains for the Bills offense. Especially in the passing game... that’s two extra targets a game. I don’t think it’s changing anything significantly and while you’ve proven it’s possible we could run more plays (I don’t disagree) it also seems completely random as to the caliber of team that runs more plays. At some point there may be diminishing returns in running plays. TOP is great but if you’re running 15 play 40 yard drives it doesn’t matter because you’re not scoring... I think we’re better served maximizing the plays that we have... which we know is somewhere closer to the amount we ran this year and to get to a higher volume of plays isn’t necessarily predictive of offensive success.

I agree with almost everything you’ve said... but this is just straight up illogical. Josh is a generational physical talent and took 3 years to get where he is with all of the resources and time invested in just Josh Allen. Nathan Peterman had 1 season with Brian Daboll in which Brian Daboll was pouring all of his time into the aforementioned generational physical talent drafted that year. I mean *****, the guy is supposed to perform miracles and turn a JAG 5th round QB into a useful piece in just 1 year?

All of these here are workout metrics... or measures of athleticism. They belong to Dawson Knox. Dawson Knox is either considered extraordinary or legitimately right on the cusp of being extraordinary by each one of these metrics when compared to other tight ends. The definition of extraordinary... very unusual or remarkable. The definition of freakish... bizarre or grotesque; abnormal. Dawson Knox is a freakish athlete. Nobody is arguing he's a consistent producer... but you seem to be confusing freakish athleticism for production.

Sorry, serious outlier was a gross exaggeration. I misremembered what I had put together... reaching 1100 is fairly extreme and anything over 1150 is an outlier over the last 10 seasons. This was saved from the last time I posted it, but I have another boxplot on my computer showing the cumulative of the last 10 seasons. Where the Bills were this year was at the upper limits of the 3rd quartile over a 10 season span. You’re REALLY pushing it getting anywhere above there. It’s just not all the much more room. Another thing, is how many of those teams were actually top teams? I know one season was New England where they had like 1200 something plays... but if I recall correctly it was almost random as to the caliber of team that found themselves running over 1100 plays. There are years bad Bills teams were running within 15 plays of what we ran this year... the Bills in 2013 who were 6-10 ran 1116 plays.

I don’t think he’s lost Josh’s trust at all. Knox, at least it seemed like, was a go to target in the RZ down the stretch and in the first playoff game. I just think when your options are Diggs, who has shown he can take over a game... gosh that San Francisco game when before the play you knew he was going to break the DBs ankles and Josh was going to throw it to him was amazing.... and then Cole who’s IMO acted as that security blanket for Josh the last two seasons... it’s hard to get anyone else substantial targets.

I don’t disagree with you on it not being a zero-sum game. Although I do disagree with you on the fact that there are enough plays to squeeze out. The Chargers, I believe were the leader, but they were a serious outlier over the last 10 years. There’s maybe ~30 more plays we can reasonably run, but then you have to take into account run/pass splits. I think it does make sense to tweak the target distribution a little bit so teams have to account for some other guys... but then again we were a Taiwan Jones dropped pass in the end zone and an Andre Roberts tap pass stopped at the 1 away from setting the NFL record for different players with a receiving TD.

If you’re going to post about not wanting Watt because he’s been hurt... that’s totally cool. Perfectly valid POV. But holy moly... at least do a little research and get things right. I’ve seen 6-7 different people today alone say he hasn’t played a full season in 3 years. He legitimately played a full season last year and 2/3 seasons dating back to 2018. Missed 8 games in 2019 but came back from the injury to play 2 playoff games. The misinformation is unbelievable.

He played a full 16 game season in 2018. 8 games and 2 playoff games (came back from an injury to do so) in 2019. Also a full 16 game season in 2020.

Sorry... my sarcasm comes across poor via text. If you look through my posts, I can assure you I don’t feel that way about our front office.

Brandon Beane is an absolute clown. You have found your unequivocal, unquestioned, undisputed franchise QB and he’s playing contract games like this - what is he thinking?!? If I were Josh Allen I would be furious that after the MVP caliber season I just had my GM, who has never played NFL football, said I’m not a priority right now. What a joke of an organization.

I should add that I really enjoyed this mock draft. I’ve been poking around on here for years, but I’ve somehow never seen any of your mocks. It’s a shame, because this is impressive. I absolutely love content like this. I look forward to the rest of the series!

The more I read about this guy @GunnerBill, the more I’m falling in love. I didn’t think I wanted a CB in RD1, but I’d be extremely happy with Newsome at 30. Unfortunately, it looks like you’re right and he’s catching some helium in media outlets and across the league.

It’s BPA related to the Bills draft board. Not your draft board, ESPN, NFL.com, etc. Whether you believe they’re following the strategy they have laid or not is your prerogative, but without knowing what their board looks like how can you make any assertion one way or the other? Although, if you’re trading up to take a specific player wouldn’t he be the best player on your board? I can’t think of many instances where you’re trading up and taking a player that you have grades lower than others...

That’s what all the people I know who grew up in Maryland say... it seems like everyone else loves Old Bay because they heard it’s the #1 seasoning. Interesting.

Old Bay or J.O.’s on your crab?

At first I didn’t think this guy was a diva.... then all of a sudden he was grand standing after the AFCCG loss to KC... now he’s wearing a Raiders shirt. I can’t believe I was wrong this whole time... he’s starting to position himself for a trade to Las Vegas.