JGMcD2

You literally find a way to work this into every post. We get it... they passed on Metcalf... as did 32 other teams multiple times. Including the Seahawks twice for players worse than Cody Ford. Just give it a rest.

I saw that but I’m 99.9% sure that is wrong because they’re misinterpreting the buckets. Edmunds didn’t make the 2019 Pro Bowl on the original ballot. He was a replacement for Dont’a Hightower. You have to be an initial selection for that to apply.

Oh I agree, I just don’t think people recognize the risk/reward of these prospects. They only want them when they pan out... and when they do they bash Beane for not taking a home run swing. It’s a lose/lose really... not that Brandon Beane cares about what folks on here think.

No... Pro Bowl is coaches, players and fans... Teams have contract incentives (which are monetary and cap related) for MVP and All-Pro and such... which is voted on by the press. Incentives for Pro-Bowl too... any better way to do it?

If I am reading this tweet from Albert Breer correctly, these are the values for the 5th year options on Josh Allen and Tremaine Edmunds for 2022. Both players will receive the value under “Transition Players” Meaning the 5th year option on Josh will be $23,016,000 and the 5th year option on Tremaine will be $12,716,000.

I think the most frustrating part about the gripes from folks on here about Tremaine Edmunds is that that those same people are often the same people who gripe that Brandon Beane hasn’t done a very good job drafting “difference makers” or he just targets “high floor” players. Out of one side of their mouth whine and complain we didn’t draft a guy like DK Metcalf because he has all of these elite physical traits but there were questions about his ability to translate it to the football field. The out of the other side of their mouth they whine and complain because Brandon Beane drafted Tremaine Edmunds and they’re upset because while he has all these physical traits and overall he’s been solid... he hasn’t developed into the elite player they want him to be. What’s the guy supposed to do? He takes a swing at a physical freak and gets flack for it... doesn’t take a swing at a physical freak and gets flack for it. It’s like he can never win and only certain TBD posters can ever be right!

Glad I’m not the only one... I don’t know how many times I’ve tried to get across the point that development is NOT LINEAR. Glad Cover1 said it here... same rule applies to Tremaine Edmunds. Yes, we need more consistency but development is not linear and does not happen the same for every player.

Am I the only one that thought during some games he seriously flashed? There were a few sequences late in the season where I felt like he was always around the ball or making a play... I know he caught a lot of flack for not being an impact guy early on from some of the resident posters who believe your 7th round pick need to be elite or the draft is a bust... I felt like he showed a lot of promise later in the season.

This is about where I’m at with things as well... so basically Buffalo has done things as well as, if not better than every team in the NFL... yet many are still griping that it’s not good enough... it doesn’t matter if it’s the eye test or numbers.. or a combo of both... Great write up! Thinking about it more... I do agree with your Sweat/Dawkins assessment. A poor example on my end then!

Well you were referring to a draft because this is a thread about drafting players... and you specifically said... And wouldn’t it be a good idea to have an understanding, context perhaps of how other teams draft and how many difference makers they’ve drafted over the same time period... before you make declarations about how many difference makers the Bills have drafted since 2017 and how that number of difference makers isn’t acceptable? You can only be good or bad at something by comparison. Ironically... I agree with your last point... they do need to find a way to get to the level of play makers the Chiefs and Bucs have... you know the best remedy for that? Time... Reid has been calling the shots in KC since 2013... Licht has been doing the same in TB since 2014. You can’t just snap your fingers and make difference makers appear everywhere. That’s the whole point of all of this... this regime is doing it as well as championship caliber organizations... they might even be outpacing them. Absolutely... he’s really freaking close in my opinion. That was also part of the reason I chose him... to illustrate the difference. You could probably make an argument he is, but also an argument he isn’t... that’s why I lean in the direction that he isn’t. IMO there are no questions asked about a true difference maker. You’re one of the best when it comes to the draft on TBD... where do the Bills stack up against other teams in drafting difference makers over the 4 year period this regime has been here?

Right, but you made the implication that the Chiefs have done an outstanding job the last 4 years getting difference makers through the draft... because this is a thread about the draft. They have more difference makers of course... they’ve been at this roster building thing a little bit longer... that matters... I know there are some... but objectively what teams have drafted more difference makers than Buffalo dating back to 2017? How many difference makers should a team be drafting per year? Indianapolis, Baltimore and New Orleans stand out... but who else? First we probably have to agree on the definition of what a difference maker is... in my mind it’s a player at a core position (QB, LT, WR, DE, CB) that excels in all situations... clearly can take over portions of the game on their own... or it’s a player at a position of less importance (TE, LB, G, DT, S) that is clearly elite and can change the outcome of a game. Let’s agree on a definition first.... I would consider Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen a difference maker... I would not consider Baker Mayfield a difference maker. I would consider Myles Garrett a difference maker... I would not consider Montez Sweat a difference maker. Travis Kelce is a difference maker... so is Kittle... Gesicki is not.

Okay.. so you’re upset with McDermott and Beane for not having more difference makers like KC? Thats your gripe... But you’re leaving out that Kelce and Hill were drafted 4 and 2 years before Beane even arrived in Buffalo. Then throw in Clark, Mathieu and Chris Jones who were drafted in 2015, 2013 and 2016... also before Beane arrived in Buffalo. I’m not even going to entertain CEH as a difference maker - queue you telling me about how he ran all over Buffalo. So your ultimate point is McBeane are bad at their jobs for not jumping in their time machine and getting hired in Buffalo sooner... that’s what you’re telling me? Also you were referring to the last four years because your post said this specifically .. I don’t need charts, and WAR, and heat maps to tell me that the Bills have drafted solid contributors that past few years, but have not been getting true difference makers outside of say Josh Allen, Tre White, and Dion Dawkins(the last two were McD picks, not Beane). I value the “eye test” a hell of a lot more than analytics, and the Bills got their asses handed to them against the Chiefs because they have too many ok contributors and not enough true difference makers like the AFC Champs. Maybe you should use a timeline or something to sort this all out... but that’s technically a chart and you don’t need those... As for heat maps... you know nothing about heat maps at all... other than one experience that I have no exposure to... which occurred 2 years before I even signed up on this forum... and use that as an insult against me?

You tell ‘em Hap!!! 🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻

Thanks for clarifying... there were some reports that Childress, Nagy and evening Greg Olson (yikes) were the lead candidate. I know Ken Dorsey interviewed too. I guess all I was getting at is it’s kind of bizarre to jump all over McDermott for upgrading his staff over time and different coaches become available. Everyone has different length contracts, teams value certain coaches differently, etc. You can’t just pluck everyone you want whenever you want. I do think he did a good job identifying some younger coaches that he eventually promoted into more prominent roles over time... that’s a good thing. He’s developed some of his own coaches in his time here and that’s encouraging. Chad Hall now the WR coach Bobby Babich now the S coach Jim Salgado now the Nickel DB coach Marc Lubick now assistant WR coach and game management... which just shows McDermott’s commitment to getting better because his game management left something to be desired so he appointed someone to help him with that in some capacity on game day.

Yes, I think that’s what he did best as well. But you’re 100% right... it’s a concept I’ve talked about before... a player may be a contributor on a non-playoff team... but what do they look like on a contender? Do they make the same impact... that’s how you have to measure players... I brought it up a few times in the never ending Logan Thomas debate haha

IIRC Whaley made a lot of moves that were popular with the fan base. Outside of EJ Manuel. I always thought his drafts and signings were an example of what would happen if the geniuses on BBMB ran the Bills for a few years.

What are you even talking about? First it was Whaley’s scouts whose information was used to make the draft picks... but now apparently it was only Whaley’s scouts who made the GOOD draft picks... and then McDermott and his coaches made the BAD draft picks? Rick Dennison... the guy who was like his 8th choice for OC? It’s documented that he was not the primary target. He wanted Nagy or Childress amongst others and Reid promoted them a year prior to co-coordinators to block a lateral move. Not every person you want to hire is immediately available nor are the just allowed to get up and come work with you when you request it. He hired Chad Hall on that initial staff too and I believe John Butler as well... and Bobby Babich... and Rob Boras... and Jim Salgado... and Marc Lubick EDIT: Butler came over after the 2017 season. Everyone else was hired in 2017.

This is true. I thought Whaley was fine for the most part on the personnel side of things... but he wasn’t fit to run an entire organization. With that being said, it seems like the rest of the NFL believes he isn’t even fit to run a scouting department seeing he’s been out of the league for ~5 years now.

Absolutely, I agree with this 100%. It needs to be a combination of both and there’s no debating that at all. Absolutely zero debate. We can agree on this, and likely agree on more than that. Probably just talking past each other before by accident.

Okay... so you’re throwing out an entire model, that does a really good job of objectively showing you something because Atlanta and Cleveland were essentially flipped? If you look at just raw value that PFF shows.. Cleveland is far outpacing Atlanta... but when factoring positional value and where Cleveland was making their picks... they drop off a bit. You’d rather trust your “sniff test” which is far more flawed than data because it’s completely subjective solely because it’s comfortable? That’s the exact definition of bias and why so many organizations inside and outside of sports use numbers to eliminate that. It doesn’t make any sense to me. You’re arguing with me that one particular ranking inside of a model doesn’t make sense, in favor of what comes down to essentially just guessing...

Well if other teams really are bad at drafting... its it plausible that the Falcons are slightly better than other really bad drafting teams? The teams that come after ATL... it’s not like any of them are hitting home runs in the draft year after year after year either. Detroit Cleveland Jacksonville Green Bay Giants Seahawks Chargers Patriots Broncos Dolphins Texans Eagles Bengals Raiders Cardinals What you’re saying about Singletary and Moss... PFFs model legitimately sifts through that for every team. It’s outcome is rooted in positional value and round drafted. A marginally contributing RB drafted in RD3 isn’t swaying anything in favor of the Bills in this model. Can you answer my questions please? You named 3 true difference makers drafted in the last 4 years for Buffalo... how may true difference makers have the AFC Champs drafted in the last 4 years? How many difference makers do you expect a team to draft per year? How many difference makers have other teams drafted in the past 4 years? You keep referencing heat maps as if they’re bad... can you explain to me why those are bad? Like in baseball they’re used in advanced scouting to help give pitchers an idea of where hitters struggle and what pitches they struggle with... is there another way with the naked eye to determine that and communicate it more effectively?

Subjective eye test > objective numbers... that’s just willfully ignorant but it’s your choice. The “eye test” has been proven by psychologists as just confirming biases that you’ve created for yourself over time in day to day life. Fine, we’ll completely ignore numbers and science in favor of our gut. You’re allowed to mix both you know...? You named 3 true difference makers drafted in the last 4 years for Buffalo... how may true difference makers have the AFC Champs drafted in the last 4 years? How many difference makers do you expect a team to draft per year? How many difference makers have other teams drafted in the past 4 years? You keep referencing heat maps as if they’re bad... can you explain to me why those are bad? Like in baseball they’re used in advanced scouting to help give pitchers an idea of where hitters struggle and what pitches they struggle with... is there another way with the naked eye to determine that and communicate it more effectively?

Other teams are also really bad at drafting is my guess...? It seems like they have some decent guys they’ve found in later rounds... nothing special, but maybe enough to separate them from the pack slightly... this is just from me looking at names? A lot of their higher percentile outcomes were later round picks, some early round picks were decent outcomes but not spectacular... and almost all of their misses were early round picks indicated by a larger dot in the graph. A lot of the teams after them have been quite atrocious as well. It doesn’t really say the Falcons have been good at all.. it just says they’re slightly better than other teams.... this is actually what I initially set out to prove with my analysis. People here are so fixated on the Bills and how “bad” they draft that they don’t realize you can only be good or bad by comparison and compared to the rest of the league they’re better. I wish I could interact with the plot... because it looks like Buffalo has a nice mix of early and later rounds there... but most their misses have been in the early rounds... which we all seem to agree on... they’ve had some guys that haven’t necessarily generated a great ROI.

Gunner, the bolded just isn’t true for PFF’s model. I highly encourage you to go read the article explaining everything in detail. My model using AV I guess inadvertently did incorporate playing time (it’s part of the formula for assigning the value) but it was my only option... I made it very clear the model wasn’t perfect and quite frankly if I had the resources that PFF does it would look something more like what they created... but they’re a large company that does this for a serious profit and I’m one person that works in professional baseball and has zero private football resources. Alas, I’m a fool for trying to measure something objectively rather than everyone have a dick swinging contest about what they know about football even though it’s rooted in personal bias. PFF’s system is much more complex than a guy starting. It’s based on all of the possible outcomes at that pick and positional value. They give some really good examples in there that I think you would like. https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-historical-draft-success-for-all-32-nfl-teams

Lol I know... which made me like it even more. “I’m just here to let you know that if you get one more, you’re going to be out for the game. That’s all.” **Walks away** **Turns around** “Oh and 17, I love that swagger baby!!” I hate it solely because I don’t want to hear other fans complain and say Josh is a bad dude or whatever. It just gets annoying and is far from the truth.