JGMcD2

I’m routinely nervous on game day, it doesn’t matter who we play. That’s no different today. That being said, I have something telling me the Bills are going to be aggressive today in all phases. There’s a quiet confidence that’s just oozing from that building in Orchard Park. ”Well, I guess we’ll find out.”

Bill O’Brien was never a guy I felt it would be worth hitching my wagon to - he is a mess.

Gaine and Morgan picked absolutely terrible situations. Schoen has been a little bit of a disappointment if I’m being honest. The decision to bring Daniel Jones back was a massive blunder that set them back.

The quiet confidence flowing through this team right now has me feeling some type of way…

It's like 22/32 so nearly 70%.

You are clearly articulating that you don't understand how this works. Boogie Basham, despite possibly have an AV slightly better than some practice squad or fringe roster players, still returns more negative value for the Buffalo Bills. His on-field production has not justified his selection, and because of this is reflecting negatively against the Bills. Damar Hamlin provides some positive value, as expected from a starter on a 12–13 win team, but it's not substantial. In the same draft, Rousseau and Spencer Brown add significant value, with Brown contributing heavily. However, Hamlin’s value is largely offset by the lack of contributions from other picks like Boogie Basham, Tommy Doyle, Marquez Stevenson, Rachad Wildgoose, and Jack Anderson. As a result, the bulk of the 2021 draft class value for Buffalo comes from Rousseau and Brown, who rank 9th in the class—well behind the top 5 teams (DET, KAN, DEN, PHI, and HOU). I’m open to constructive feedback, but after five years of analysis, I haven’t seen received anything tangible that helps improve the process. Most people with a negative reaction, including yourself, seem to struggle with understanding how it works. If you have solid suggestions or publicly available information that’s reliable for comparing players across different positions, that would be helpful.

Well, you’re proving you didn’t read how this works, which makes your reply largely meaningless 😂 That is absolutely not the case at all. I’ll let you go back and read up. Because I know you won’t, and it’ll confuse others, here’s how it actually breaks down. Basham + Elam + Spector = -21.6 Benford = 9.7

Too tough for them, just right for us?

What does the extending draft picks have to do with anything? I have two separate methodologies, one that shows the value to the team and one that shows the value independent of team. The Bills lead in both categories - so I’m not sure I follow your point there. I’m having a hard time following exactly what you’re asking for in general. Do you mind rephrasing it?

I excluded the 2017 draft class because it was not managed by Beane, and there is often some debate around its inclusion. This provides a clearer line of delineation. However, I do have the breakdown for the 2017 class, and it ranks second overall, just behind the New Orleans Saints, who had an outstanding draft that year. That being said, the Bills are not very far behind. When evaluating a draft class, the general consensus is to wait 3-5 seasons for a more accurate assessment. This is why I excluded the 2023 and 2024 drafts, as we have not yet reached that window. That was the reasoning behind my decision - but for full transparency they rank 12th and 10th respectively. I want to put this into perspective... when I ranked the 2022 draft class immediately after the 2022 season, the Bills draft class ranked outside the top 20 (22nd) and now after three years of performance it's ranked 2nd. Regarding your point about Josh Allen pumping up the numbers dramatically, I would like to offer a rebuttal. The original rankings I included were sorted by NETDrAV, which I define as: The AV that a team has benefitted from directly on their team as compared to players and teams in their draft class. I am including a new chart below that is sorted by NETCarAV, which I define as: The pure amount of value that players drafted by a given team have produced as compared to players and teams in their draft class. The Bills do not move at all... Beane very rarely misses. He is identifying talent at such an incredibly consistent rate compared to his peers; it's not just tied to Josh Allen. Yeah, it's definitely a weak spot. Although AV rewards you for being an All-Pro and Pro Bowler - there is a multiplier built into the formula. It's baked in there, just probably not weighted appropriately.

Who are they taking off the field for Cole Bishop? Taylor Rapp and/or Damar Hamlin? Seems unlikely. Taron Johnson? Highly unlikely. Matt Milano or Terrel Bernard? Absolutely not. Dorian Williams? I mean, maybe but that also means that Taron Johnson isn't on the field...

And the 2nd line of defense won't include Cam Lewis or Cole Bishop...

No, they say - "When you look at him, he's overrated...."

I have it on good authority he was kicked out of the Rivers School for smoking pot.

2023 is currently sitting 12th overall. It'll tick up a bit because of Kincaid, Torrence and Williams. Otherwise, it was a small class and somewhat underwhelming class.

PFR has recently updated their AV (Approximate Value) metric now that the 2024 regular season has concluded. Below are links to the previous four updates, which detail the methodology and provide snapshots of team standings at various points throughout time. These earlier posts serve as a valuable reminder that evaluating draft classes can be a challenging task, as the true impact of these players often takes years to fully materialize. With three seasons of data from the 2022 draft class now available, we can more confidently draw conclusions about the draft classes from 2018 to 2022 and the trends they reveal. 2021 League Wide Draft Success 2017-2019 - A Follow Up - The Stadium Wall Archives - Two Bills Drive 2022 *UPDATED* Draft Success - Measured by AV - The Stadium Wall - Two Bills Drive 2023 Draft Success Measured by AV - Part III 2024 Draft Success Measured by AV - Part IV

Yeah, his answer is going to be Creed Humphrey, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Nico Collins or Asante Samuel Jr.

Based on what dude? Quick look at PFF says Asante Samuel grades as the 131st best CB in the NFL in 2024. Rousseau is grading out as the 12th ranked DE. The metric I’m going by has Creed Humphrey and Amon-Ra above Rousseau, so I agree there. The 3rd player is Spencer Brown. Collins and Samuel are behind. So yeah man, you picked out 2 guys of the 220 taken after Rousseau that are (and 2 that might) be more valuable. Are you going to start making draft picks with the Grays Sports Almanac from Back to the Future?

AJ is perfectly fine pick in Round 2. Boogie and Elam are busts. Holy *****!!! You cracked the ***** code, a NFL GM drafted a bust!!!! He literally is that lol

You’re still ignoring him being a TOP 10-15 PLAYER IN THE ENTIRE DRAFT CLASS!!!!!! Only 3 guys selected after him have provided more value to their teams, and the Bills drafted one of them! How is that a reach? There were literally only 3 other choices drafted in the 220(ish) picks taken after him that could have been better value than Rousseau.

Huh? You don’t care who was drafted around him, those were the options at the position. The draft isn’t a free market, it’s dictated by the talent available. That being said you not pay attention to the fact he’s been one of the top 10-15 players IN THE ENTIRE DRAFT CLASS?! That’s undoubtedly worth a first round pick.

So would you have preferred Odafe Oweh or Joe Tryon-Shoyinka? It’s not pedestrian for a late 1st round pick, if we took Rousseau at 1.5, sure you may have a case. We took him at 1.30 and he’s outplayed his classmates league wide. He’s one of the top 10-15 players in that entire draft class, and only 3 of those players went AFTER him. Including our own Spencer Brown.

Brother, I don’t think you have a coherent point. You shifted from “bottom feeding teams” leapfrogging us to this point about GMs building Super Bowl contenders. The NFC teams don’t have to compete with KC every year to get to the Super Bowl, you know, the game that KC has played in 4/5 past seasons. We do not have a team building issue, we have a KC issue, like 30 other teams. If you’re going to start down the draft success road… I’ll pull out some objective data that just absolutely blows your mind. Beane drafts as good as anyone in the league, outside of maybe John Lynch and Eric DeCosta. P.S. How in the ***** are you trying to lump Rousseau in as a bust? Rousseau has been plenty productive, look at the other DE taken around him in 2021. Payton Turner Odafe Oweh (Eric DeCosta!) Joe Tryon-Shoyinka

What bottom feeder teams are jumping us and winning Super Bowls? Here are the Super Bowl matchups since Josh broke out in 2020... Tampa Bay/Kansas City (2020) Los Angeles/Cincinnati (2021) Philadelphia/Kansas City (2022) San Francisco/Kansas City (2023) Oh, and for good measure the Super Bowl in 2019 was San Francisco/Kansas City... so who are these bottom feeder teams leaping us? If you want to point to the NFC teams, your argument is just dumb, we don't play in the NFC. If you want to point to the Bengals, considering they're the only team outside of KC to make a Super Bowl, then your definition of "bottom feeder" is ridiculous.

The announcers were literally quoting the Steelers DC saying that they were going to key in on Derrick Henry and let Lamar Jackson beat them. It’s hysterical that they were saying that out of one side of their mouth, and then selling us on Lamar Jackson as MVP out of the other side.