Seoulofstone
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Posts posted by Seoulofstone
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Some may be surprised by this- I know I was. Rick Gosselin who compiles these rankings annually, factors in numerous things including field position, FG percentage, return distance and scoring. As much as I felt the special teams had good moments I confess I am surprised to see them have such a radical improvement.
So nice job Heath and his unit!
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10 hours ago, PIZ said:
The Bills do appear to have a brutal schedule next year.
This is a majority view which I disagree with. Let's just break down the feared NFC west as an example. Arizona shouldn't scare anyone. Terrible D and Oline. Not fixable in one off-season. Rams are a team in decline. No draft picks, low cap with lots of important upcoming contracts due. Who is scared by Goff and arthritic Gurley? Seattle- won a ton of close games. Heavily dependent on Wilson magic. LT, LG, RG and 2 DEs all entering FA. 49ers are in the best shape but they can't keep their most impactful player Armstead as they have less cap than the Rams. Their defensive line is made up of high first rounders. It's based on talent more than scheme.
For me the Bills have so much more potential to improve than these teams. Just imagine if this team adds a dominant pass rusher!
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Simple truth here is that nobody played a better defensive game against the Ravens in the regular season than the Bills. This should be a source of pride, but still plenty of Bills fans want to use this as a criticism of McDermott. That's a bit sad IMO.
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The problem with letting guys like Shaq go and cutting guys like Murphy is that if they replace them through FA they won't get a comp pick and likely they will be paying their replacement a similar amount to what they ask.
If they draft a DE R1, then they will get a second tier WR and vice versa. So how do the Bills get a DE they want?
I was looking at overthecap.com and the guys at the bottom are going to have to make some hard choices. Players like Everson Griffin can save 13 mill against the cap by being cut. Jags have Calais Campbell, Ngakoue and Josh Allen. People expect them to let go Ngakoue (because that's what they want for their team), but it's more likely that 33year old Campbell is let go. This is where the late round picks can come in handy. If the Bills were to offer a 4th or fifth in exchange for Griffin or Campbell they wouldn t need to compete for them in FA and they wouldn't count against the comp pick formula.
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@GunnerBill I 100% agree that if the new schedule is played now with current players all healthy the betting man would see a low over/under win prediction for the Bills. I look forward to revisiting this topic in August.
I do enjoy and respect your analysis and posts even if I don't always agree with them.
8 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: -
What i find funny about the glass half empty/glass half full discussion, is that the pessimists have watched their team struggle to make the playoffs for 20 years. The present regime has got there twice in 3 years, but casual fans want to blow it up because they don't like - insert name of HC, GM, OC, QB .etc.
They may be proven true in time but why would you hope for that? So much water to go under the bridge before next season.
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1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:
What? Complete nonsense. It isn't about any agenda. It is about objectively saying "yea next year is harder on paper."
You need to quit thinking every opinion anyone has that differs from yours is an agenda.
In your opinion. Before free agency, the draft, preseason and injuries with all the changes that will bring.
It's so funny that you level that at me when you quoted JoeinWinslow saying condescendingly that he "normally" has good takes but pompously that you are usually right in your judgement. You also "call me out" for putting down Deshaun Watson to generate reflected glory for JA, which you Sigmund Freud have diagnosed as a defence mechanism even though, I'm not a Bills fan but a Panthers fan.
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1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:
I don't agree Joe. Normally you have a pretty good feel. There is always one or two teams who are better or worse (Steelers lose their QB for example) but generally when I have thought "tough slate" that is how it has worked out and vice versa
How many teams lose their franchise QB or another key player? How many teams this past year had moments where they were hot and moments when they were abysmal? How can we not know that Bills will raise their game when they have the opportunity with a tougher schedule?
Few people predicted a Buff win in Pitt this time last year. The point is circumstances change as will a great many variables before the Bills next play.
The funny thing is that a statement of a tough schedule is a no lose assessment. If the Bills are terrible you are correct. If the Bills are good, you can still say you were correct, but that the Bills rose to the occasion. Unless you can predict the future you don't know and the only purpose it serves is to act as a justification for whatever off season agenda you prescribe.
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53 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
I have not berated anyone for making excuses for Allen.
I assumed that your comments were directed at me, since you quote me.
QuoteWhat I have and will continue to call people out on is trying to deride other Quarterbacks to make some sort of "we don't have it too bad" argument.
That was not my intent here.
QuoteQuoteHe was not good first half. But he made the plays to drag them back and to win them the game. He was the single biggest contributer. And then you get Bills fans saying "yea well he didn't do much." It is a defense mechanism and a really poor one.
Is this directed at me? Look all I can say is that I don't think Watson had his best game by a long stretch. Saying a QB was the biggest single contributor to a victory doesn't move the needle for me because when is that not true in playoff football? Again if we're being completely fair many times on TBD have I seen credit taken away from Josh for wins and given to the team, but for opposition QBs it's always the other way round.
Watson made some great plays but for me this is a case of history remembers the winners. If you disagree with that opinion and think I use it as a way to defend Josh's inadequacies that's fine, but incorrect in this case.
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1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:
I get fed up with people talking down other QBs as a defence of Josh Allen. Josh had a decent game last night. Very good first half, so-so after that but was not the reason we lost. Why people want to defend him by having a go at Watson who had a poor first half and an outstanding second half I have no idea. And Watson didn't have a turnover actually. Hopkins had a turnover.
The people trying to prop up Allen by talking down other QBs are doing themselves and the fan base a disservice. Let's talk about Allen on Allen's merits. The mitigations for Allen last night are about our team. They are not "oh well Deshaun Watson took some bad sacks first half too."
It is the most irritating part of Bills fans. And it isn't just an Allen thing either. It happened when Tyrod was here too. The crazy talking down of other Quarterbacks.
So defensive. I'm a Watson fan. He's a great QB. I'm saying that he didn't have a great game by his standards. Even in the last quarter and OT he left plenty out on the field. He gave the Bills just as many extra chances to win as the Bills gave him. He extended plays brilliantly but he can play So much better. That's not to denigrate him, we both know that he's played better.
I was responding to your assertion that the Texans were better and am not at all making excuses for Josh- so you're wrong about that
I accept your correction on the turnover, but you berate me for making excuses for Allen and miss my point. Their numbers aren't disimilar for the game. You are giving credit to Watson for the same things you are criticising Allen. What did Allen do well you ask? Third and long completions- he had more than Watson. Running threat he was better -I'm not talking about scrambling here. Authoring long clock eating drives down the pitch. He led a 4th quarter comeback to tie the game. Texans get a few broken plays with dump off passes and YAC with multiple missed tackles and its-"wow Watson is so great".
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1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:
Watson did take over the game in the last Quarter and a half. He was not good first half but in the last Quarter and a half he rushed for a TD, rushed for the 2 pointer, threw a beauty to get them into scoring position again, threw a TD and a 2 pointer, and then escaped a certain two man sack to make the play that basically won them the game.
The people wanting to downplay that do themselves a disservice.
So It's ok to give Watson credit for rushing for a TD on a scramble where the play broke down but many hold Josh's rushing as a sign that he can't QB? I admire Watson but I'm frustrated by how he is given credit where Josh isn't allowed it by so many people. Josh made several plays to put the Bills in FG position where the end result was negated by a mixture of penalties and ineptitude which pushed him out of FG range after a long drive. Where I give him criticism is the two meltdown plays which gave the Texans a way back.
If you break down Watson's drives you can easily say he was clutch but he was constantly sacked for holding the ball too long and bailed himself out repeatedly with hero ball on plays like the 3rd and 18. This is the very thing which Josh gets huge criticism for. Let's not pretend Watson threw multiple pinpoint passes and TDs, or that many of the huge plays weren't due to YAC and missed tackles. Watson gets credit rightly for winning the game but neither he nor Hopkins had a world beating game.
He had less passing yards than Allen (a stat that so often riles people), both had a turnover. Bills had more total yards, more rushing yards, better third down conversion. But because Texans won all of this is forgotten. Watson is capable of great plays but he did NOT have a great game.
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7 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
I don't think we were better than the other team. I think the Texans are more talented than us. No more nice stories. We need more top end talent.
Are you talking about reputation or how they played yesterday? Because Watson and Hopkins weren't stars in the first half. Nuk had the one big play 2nd half and Watson finally came good after numerous opportunities. Neither of them 'took over the game'. To me 16-0 at halftime doesn't suggest they were the better team. They were clutch at all or nothing moments but their offense was more inconsistent than the Bills.
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McD is a defensive coach. He will always be conservative in his overall approach, even if the offense improves greatly. Anyone who dubs him inept doesn't understand the meaning of that word. He has one of the best defences in the league, without a Aaron Donald or Khalil Mack. What he has achieved is greater than the sum of the parts.
I get that people want their team to play like Kyle Shanahan's. Just a reminder that his high risk attacking strategy led to the greatest comeback in Superbowl history for his opponents. His first two seasons in SF with a roster loaded with high 1st round picks on D was abysmal.
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He was a bad head coach (too many losing seasons, horrible divisional record) and his defenses were mostly poor over the years despite that being his calling card. There was a serious drop-off after McD left and you can find a thread pinpointing the dropoff after the departure of Beane and McD.
https://www.carolinahuddle.com/boards/topic/160812-sean-mcdermott-brandon-beane/
He will go to the Giants this offseason.
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25 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:
At the right price, absolutely!! Now does it look like he can remain healthy, nope. I’d love him on a 1 year incentive-laden deal tied to snap counts and active games.
He's not a terrible player, but he's clearly had injury problems. I agree with you because the Bills regime has shown the ability to improve players and help them play above an expected level. Shaq Lawson, Jordan Phillips are good examples. It shouldn't be an emotional decision based on his letting the Bills down with previous effort. He wouldn't be back as a leader but in much more of a reduced capacity. If he doesn't work cut him. If he's cheap and they get him short term, can keep him healthy then flip him for a comp pick that's good business.
It's a lot of ifs but if they could get him cheap, they could do it alongside a draft pick at WR. That's a low risk move.
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28 minutes ago, thurst44 said:
So, what is wrong with comparing 12 games to 12 games, which is what I did. Those are the stats, per Pro-Football Reference, for each player's first 12 games. It makes a bit more sense after he plays 12 games to update the others and compare it to 12 games than to revert Oliver's stats to 8 games. I just was trying to be helpful and do a little legwork on a quiet snowy campus day.
I'm not the OP, btw, but I'm guessing what happened there was that the article he/she referenced was a month old. My point is that if you do the math, and extend all of these players to 12 games, the point still holds. I'm pretty sure that's seriously properly represented data.
Exactly, its a misrepresentation of the article where Joe Marino compares Oliver's first 8 starts to those all-pro DT's. Comparing 8 to 12 isn't what Joe was doing in the article.
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9 hours ago, SoTier said:
Actually, it doesn't appear that Jackson "landed" in Baltimore by happenstance. Ozzie Newsome, his assistant GM Eric DeCosta (current GM) and John Harbaugh apparently targeted Jackson as they executed a couple of trades leading up to the draft to acquire that 32nd pick as their second first rounder in 2018. They also executed some trades to acquire Flacco in the 2008 draft. The Ravens also brought in Greg Roman in 2018 to eventually replace Morningwen which he did in 2019, so it's likely this group had a vision of acquiring Jackson and maximizing his talent. The Ravens under Newsome have always been primarily a strong defense/run first offense, and DeCosta seems likely to continue that philosophy.
I think you misunderstand my meaning. Clearly when you draft someone in the 1st its not an accident. They wrote the name on the card.
They obviously assessed him and thought we like him and we could build an O around him. However 31 players were selected prior to that. When you give 30 other teams a opportunity it sends a clear message that hes considered an hit or miss prospect. In those circumstances he clearly 'could' have 'landed' in a different situation had someone else liked him.
I'm not knocking Lamar. But I am saying had he been in the same situation as Allen or Rosen with a poor Oline, or in Rosen's case an FO that weren't convinced about him things could have gone badly for him. Instead he has a strong Oline, a good D and a roster well used to being playoff contenders so he was set up to succeed. And genuinely I am just as happy that he is succeeding as Josh Allen. I hate it when people are written off before they've had an opportunity.
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1 hour ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:
Jordan Phillips and Shaq Lawson will need to be paid this off-season and they should both receive contracts large enough that put them into our top 5 for next season I would think.
I think it depends a lot on whether Beane is going to try to hit FA hard this year or focus on the draft with occasional splashes in FA. Both strategies can make sense. You can load up on talent in FA (assuming players want to come) but done wrong you can end up like the Rams. Or you can pay your own and trust your scouting and schemes to be able to plug in new players with just occasional FA acquisitions. The added bonus with this is that you can pick up comp picks- Lawson, Phillips and Spain assuming you don't offset it by bringing guys in. Its hard to accept because they have all done well but if you're truthful Phillips career sack records shows this year to be an anomaly. I'm wary of guys who come good in contract years. Does he work in the system? Sure, but maybe others could too, plus I expect Ed Oliver to be the man going forward. Regardless i hope Phillips gets paid somewhere. Lawson has clearly improved under McD but he will want more than he has been worth across his career, I would rather take Ngakoue in FA who has been more consistent over time as a pass rusher. You don't like to lose Spain because of depth and familiarity on the Oline but it will depend on the offers he gets and the Bills should again avoid overpaying.
QuoteI think they sneaked into the wild card though right? They have a legitimate chance this year to be the #1 overall seed in the AFC IF they can get by us next weekend. Plus they possibly have the league MVP. I think Ozzie is still the running.
Baltimore Is just a well run organisation-a perennial contender. Ozzie isn't there anymore though. I love Lamar but he actually landed in a great situation with an above average Oline and exceptional OC who could custom the O to his unique talents. So whats been going on there is a lot to do with coaching and correct use of the pieces assembled i just don't think its as transformative as the Bills because they have been consistently good for a number of years.
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3 hours ago, Mat68 said:
Baltimore was a playoff team last year. I think it's down to Lynch or Beane. Add in the cap space I think Beane should get it.
When Lynch was hired they had among the highest available cap. Virtually every Dlineman on that defence is not just a first rounder but a top 20 pick. He didn't draft a QB and the jury is still out on Garropolo. They have a really brilliant HC but considering what they started with they really should be playoff contenders. What makes Buffalo so much more impressive is that Beane started with an old roster close to the cap but he has freed up a ton of space while creating a foundation of good young players. It's also why I think the hindsight analysis of@SoTier misses the mark.
He says just pay Gilmore, Woods, Darby conveniently ignoring that they couldn't afford to. It also completely ignores the fact that McD wanted to build the team with guys he wanted which whether or not you like that makes a ton of sense and is borne out by the culture you now see. Every GM in the league is wishing they hadn't undervalued Mahomes and Watson.
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11 hours ago, Rbleyle said:
Cutting Star saves over 2 million. With the amount of cap space we have taking a 7.8 million cap hit is very doable since we will want to re-sign Phillips. I don’t see Hughes going anywhere, he’s the only decent edge rusher on this team, and we just re-signed him.
I think you're projecting what you hope for onto that situation. Let's look at the facts. 7.8 mill dead money for a 2 mill cap saving? That's making a move for the sake of it and not something a conservative coach is likely to do. McD loves him since Carolina and defended him even before his play picked up. He's not going to be cut to save 2 mill just because Bills fans hate him because he's overpaid for a DT. Now 2021 when his dead money number is 5.2 versus 5.6 cap saving, I think there is a much bigger chance he's cut.
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Interception and blocked FG. Played Star.
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14 hours ago, whatdrought said:
I think we're going to be looking in the second tier based on position: Higgins, Shenault, Jefferson, and then some other guys who may rise. I like Higgins as I like his jump ball skills.. Not sure if Shenault can do that or not as I don't know that he's been asked to much? (I could be wrong on that though) Shenault is great for his versatility and I think Daboll would have fun with him like he uses McKenzie. Ruggs doesn't bring the size that we need, but damn if his speed wouldn't be fun...
There's also some great later round guys who intrigue me: Micheal Pittman Jr., Taylor Johnson, Chase Claypool. Not that I want to wait, but this is a really really good draft at WR.
Tyler Johnson is 6"2 and rated the best route runner outside of Jeudy. He's the guy i would target in R2 and take a DE in R1. Another option worth considering is FA. Marvin Jones is tied for 1st in NFL with 8 TDs. Golladay is also FA but i would expect them to hold onto him. Either of them would be fantastic bigger outside receivers and proven articles as well.
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1 hour ago, Pete said:
I love Josh, and I'm happy he is the Bills QB. That being said, me, and several others lobbied to hold onto all our draft picks, trade back if anything, and stand pat and draft Lamar Jackson. We got ridiculed by many.
Alphadawg created a whole thread, The Case For Lamar Jackson.
Let the record state on 3/28/18- I am extremely against trading up into top 6 for QB- and massively overpaying. The opportunity cost of squandering picks 12, 22, 53, 56, 65, 96 and a 2019 1st(which will be a high draft pick if we sacrifice drafts for a rookie QB). Impact players that the Bills could miss out on(and whom would instantly upgrade Bills starters) include:
Roquan Smith, Derwin James, Vita Vea, Tremaine Edmunds, Isiah Wynn, Will Hernandez, Billy Price, Frank Ragnow, Denzel Ward, Lamar Jackson, Ronald Jones, Guice, Vander Esch, James Washington, Cortland Sutton, Mike Hughes, Nick Chubb, Marcus Davenport, Mata’afa, Rashan Evans, Taven Bryan, Harrison Phillips, Josh Jackson, Christian Kirk, Hayden Hurst, Payne, Equanemius, Baker, Sam Hubbard, Ballage, etc.
Imagine if we stayed pat(or even better traded back)- the depth we would have on this team. Moral of the story- don't trade up, keep your picks,stockpile draft picks, let the board come to you
We could have 7 of the above and all our draft picks. Or we can risk it all on a QB ad give all that up.
Please revisit and either give me **** or give me props. Peace out
I will say that way too many people completely wrote off Lamar and Josh. I felt that at the time. People talked about Darnold, Baker and Rosen as though they were almost certain to pan out. Maybe this is just my memory but I seem to remember the Mahomes and Watson QB class as derided by comparison- everyone said that the next class would be superior. Mahomes was just an air raid QB and Watson was too small and a product of Clemson I would say as of now many of the pieces I read about many of these guys were wrong although it does make a huge difference where they end up and their supporting cast.
@Pete To your point about the guys they could have got if they hadn't traded up? I see a few guys who have been disappointing on that list. Equaneimeous, Ballage, Price, Bryan. Some of them don't even make sense-are you going to drop Poyer or Hyde for Derwin James? Isn't that a wasted pick with so many other holes?
My feeling is even of you didn't like the 2018 draft it made.sense in terms of an overall strategy, so even of the picks don't pan out I can get behind it.
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Hope he gets a big contract but my guess is elsewhere. Thats no reason for despair-it will bring a comp pick. He deserves it-not bad for a guy picked up off the waiver wire. I wouldn't be upset if he stays but I have confidence that other players would step up if Phillips moves along. Liuget came in off the street and immediately got a sack and Oliver will be improved next year. Star isn't going anywhere however much people want to imagine a roster without his name. McD likes him.
Its dangerous handing out a big long-term contract to a guy with one year of stellar production. Let someone else do it and bring in a young guy.
2019 Bills ranked 12th in Special Teams by Gosselin
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Patriots finished 3rd, Jets 8th, Dolphins 24th.
https://mavensports.io/nfl/talkoffame/nfl/rick-gosselin-s-2019-nfl-special-teams-rankings-a-heavenly-finish-for-saints-i1WLdqzQ4k2xEBENUVmCKA