TheWeatherMan

Nah, was in pretty good shape for a big guy. He was a D2 OL, turned power lifter, turned cage fighter.

Oh Simon, it’s okay, you can come out and stop pretending. We all know you're the biggest (closet) weather nerd on TBD 😝

Careful now, we’re not all thick glasses and pocket protector wearing nerds. I worked with a 330lb meteorologist that infrequently would cage fight.

Lake Michigan featured the highest number of concurrent events, and Lake Erie featured the fewest. It is evident that short-wave troughs are a ubiquitous feature near the Great Lakes during the cold season and have the potential to impart substantial impacts on lake-effect snowbands. Figured I’d post the entirety of the paragraph not the cherry picked section you posted. This article is referencing upper-tropospheric short waves which would deepen or fill the long wave pattern (jet stream). The jet dictates the path Highs and Lows take which would impact fetch at the surface. This is much different than short waves in the lower portions of the atmosphere which decrease stability over the region, even more so as they move across warm waters and create large snow events (I.e. lake enhanced snow). What’s is your forecasting experience?

Yep, take a look at Tuesday. Good potential for another big snow event. High presses up into the Ohio River Valley creating that SW gradient flow across Erie. Tis the season.

Who said that? The bands definitely meander in all cases (less that 5 degrees) but large accumulations generally occur with little movement. The longer the band sits in one spot the more snow they get. Large shifts in the gradient flow associated with short wave troughs (lol) like @Big Turk would severely inhibit snow development. Lake effect is associated with cold air on the front side of a high moving across the Great Lakes. Lake enhanced is when a trough or front moves through the area and destabilizes as it moves over warmer waters and dumps snow over the region. Buffalo is south of a large low pressure system which is causing west-south west winds, the same orientation as Lake Erie to orchard park and Lake Ontario to water town. Before talking smack about something you know nothing about, in an attempt to get a few chuckles at some else’s expense, maybe educate yourself first.

Lows and highs follow the long wave pattern, short wave troughs are not going to significantly impact a LE snow event. It might impact a lake enhanced snow event but not lake effect. Using two case studies to determine a climatological norm sounds like something a politician would do not a scientist. There are only 3 things that really contribute to a LE snow event, the delta between air and water temp, the length / size of the fetch, and the positioning, relative speed / longevity of the high transiting the area. Did you ever use BUFKIT while you were studying meteorology?

No..no it’s not. If wind directions tend to not vary significantly with a LE event. If they did, this would throw off one of the main catalysts as to what causes the higher snowfall accumulations. It’s not just cold winds over warm water, it’s the duration. The longer the fetch the more significant the event. Granted there’s rules of thumb and forecasting techniques for all events, I think you’re over simplifying LE events. It’s mostly seasonal, and depends greatly on the path and cold air advection associated with the high. This time of year, LE is more prominent because the super shallow Lake Erie isn’t yet frozen over, so Buffalo can get hits with a westerly flow (like we’re seeing now) or a NW flow off of Ontario. With this event models are projecting a lengthy westerly flow off the lakes (don’t see much variability) which is why both western NY and the Watertown area are both being hit.

This isn’t how lake effect works.

Watch Major League

Read the Farmers Almanac while sleeping in a Holiday Inn Express always worked for me.

@Big Turk

(Revised) Narrow bands of heavy snow i.e. lake effect (or enhanced) is nearly impossible to forecast due its reliance on micro scale effects and the super sensitivity to the slightest changes in environmental conditions. Forecasting a lake effect snow event is super easy you just need cold air advection over relatively warm water with a long wind fetch (distance over water). Now determining the exact impact area is nearly impossible more than 24 hours out. A 1 degree shift in the wind direction or a 1 degree change in temperature can be the difference in getting 3 inches vs 3 feet. The watch is simply saying there will be a lake effect event. Because of the impact that the Great Lakes have on weather systems (usually slowing them down) models tend to struggle with the timing and intensity of lake effect events especially out to 72-96hrs. Once we’re inside of 12-24 hours forecast fidelity increases significantly. Lake effect and fog are probably the hardest single point phenomena to forecast @Big Turk

So was Mahomes, and I would never accuse him of sportsmanship.

30 yard Fields run, 15 yard penalty, 5 yard penalty, half this distance penalty, TD. So brownsie

Youse bout to be sleepin with the fishes.

Don’t ask questions you don’t want the answers too. Andy Reid owns McD in the playoffs, that’s a fact.

As originally stated, not critical of any season, just post season games / losses.

McD is regular season coach of the decade, that’s never been an issue. Problem is, he sucks in the post season. Egg against Jags, Texans meltdown, 13 seconds, Bengals embarrassment. I truly hope he proves me wrong, I’d gladly eat a years supply of crow, but until he does I’ll advocate for hope in the post season rather than rinse repeat failure.

Running the same run play on nearly every first down didn’t help either.

They missed the pick play on the chiefs and arguably another on the Bills TD. The PF on the Rapp INT was a complete joke. Might have called a good FG no good (can anyone confirm). It was no where near good officiating but relative to all of the other games, this crew was top notch.

Allen bailed out his dummy OC

Nice up the middle run at their best player…so stupid

What’s the average yard per play on 1st down

Our OC is dumb AF. The definition of insanity