Inigo Montoya

My son and I will be attending the first two days of the draft this year in Nashville. As a representative of this proud message board brotherhood, and of Buffalo Bills fans everywhere, I solemnly vow to conduct myself in a manner keeping with the highest standards of our fine football franchise and fair city. Forthwith, I promise; 1.) To cheer loudly and wildly for whomever the Bills select, even if it is someone I have never heard of, even if it's a kicker in the 1st round. In the event that a TV camera is recording my reaction to replay to the nation, I will not give Patriot fans the joy of seeing a Bill's fan upset with the selection. I will act like this single draft pick has just guaranteed the next ten Lombardi Trophies come straight home to Buffalo, NY. 2.) To boo and jeer at whoever the Patriots select. Even if they draft the Virgin Mary or Jesus himself, I will react as if it is the worst pick in the history of not only the NFL, but of all organized sports since the very dawn of time. 3.) I will vociferously denounce any draft pick by the New York Jets. I will then projectile vomit on the closest Jet's fan. 4.) I will take pity on those poor miserable souls who are Dolphin's fans. Being a Dolphin's fan is clearly punishment enough. I will be the bigger man and simply ignore their pick altogether. 5.) The weather tomorrow night is going to be horrible in downtown Nashville. I vow to stand stoically in the face of thunder, lightning, hurricane force winds, tornadoes, hail, pestilence, famine, plague, the whole d*mn Old Testament if need be, with nary a complaint or any indication of personal discomfort. I will not forget that I am representing a Blue Collar town of rough and ready individuals and not a bunch of organic sushi eating, club seat occupying, douche canoes in New Jersey or L.A. 6.) I will provide a thorough accounting of my 2019 NFL Draft exploits to this board when I return home, including the important stuff, like any Kay Adams sightings and where the good pizza and draft beer is in Nashville. I will also include any witty rejoinders and put downs I lob at Patriot's fans during the course of the long weekend. I swear this sacred oath on the square right foot of Tom Dempsey and on the indomitable fighting spirit of James Edward Kelly. So help me God.

By that standard we're all in trouble Thurman. You have been a guy on the internet saying something at least 8,548 times. ?

Hey Reed.. Hock is at the top of my list but I think Oliver is a stud too and I would be very happy with him if that is the selection. Unfortunately, I really don't think Oliver or Hock will be sitting there at 9 for us. I don't think Oliver gets past 5. I think that unless we make a trade up, both Oliver and Hock will be gone. There are other good players who will fall to us at 9. Either way I hope we get someone who is a great Bill for the next 10 years. I have faith in the OBD brain trust.

I'm on the Hock Train because you get a blocking stud on the O-line and someone who could very well put up WR 1 numbers, all in the same pick. That is what I call draft value. He is consistently rated higher than any WR in this draft for a reason. He is a consensus top ten draft pick in this draft for a reason. He is the #1 rated offensive skill player who is not a QB in this draft for a reason. I would love for Allen to have a true #1 receiving weapon and security blanket to throw to. I'd love to have Shady, Gore, and Yeldon running behind the left side of our line with Hock/Nsekhe/Spain/Morse blowing open huge holes for them. I'd love to add someone who can play like Gronk, Ertz, or Kittle on this offense, run by a guy like Daboll who coached Gronk for years, and knows how to scheme to maximize a TE's production.. For those who say that there is no guarantee Hock can play like Ertz or Gronk, you're absolutely right. By the same measure there is no way to guarantee that whoever we draft at 9 instead of Hock will be a stud either. It's all a crap shoot. My biggest worry about Hockenson is that he wont be there at #9 when it's our turn to select. It think there is only a 1 in 3 chance he is still on the board at #9.

Thanks Cowgirl, will do! ? That's a given...

I think the flaw in your reasoning is that ten years ago, even five years ago, Hockenson, Fant, and Irv Smith wouldn't have received 1st round grades because the TE position was devalued compared to where it was today. Hock, Fant, and Smith would have had second or third round grades in the past and that is where they would have been selected just like Gronk, Ertz, and Kittle. What has changed is that the NFL is now valuing the TE position more so they are now getting 1st round grades. All those TEs that get pointed out with 2nd and 3rd round grades in the past like Gronk and Ertz would be 1st rounders today. What that means is that you are no longer getting Gronk / Ertz / Kittle quality TEs in the 2nd and 3rd rounds anymore because they are now going in the 1st round. If you wait until the 2nd or 3rd round to draft a TE today you're getting a TE who would have been selected in the 4th-6th rounds before. In short, the elite TEs don't go in the 2nd or 3rd rounds anymore, they go in the 1st round because the NFL game has changed and TEs are valued more now. Just my take. Could be wrong. ?

They were sold out for day 1 and 2 already, they had tickets for day 3.... $499 each. I passed. Have no idea how much the tickets were for days 1 and 2, I'm sure they were a lot more. If there is one thing the NFL can do, it's generate revenue. I'm glad Cowgirls Fan has some inside mojo to score the tickets. I'll keep my eyes open for her if we get close to the stage. I don't mind the rain, spent five years in the infantry, been cold and wet more times that I can remember. This will probably be the only time I ever get to a draft. I don't care if there's a category 5 hurricane. ?

Heading down to Nashville tomorrow. Won’t be in any circle of honor though. I’ll be standing on Broadway somewhere sporting my Kyle Williams jersey getting drenched in the rain with my son, but it will be worth it.... ?

I am still a Hockenson at #9 guy. I think he is the best TE prospect to come out of college in the last 20 years. If he is there at #9, and it is looking increasingly likely that he will already be gone, I think the Bills should grab him and not look back. Elite run blocker. Elite pass blocker. Elite receiver. Process guy. True #1 weapon for Allen. Position of need. Kittle from same program, Pro-Bowl year 2 I don't know how you pass on him.

Inigo's BOLD predictions for 2019 1. A WR on the Buffalo Bills ends up with more receiving touchdowns than Antonio Brown. 2. Josh Allen throws more touchdown passes than Tom Brady. 3. Odell Beckham Jr. is suspended for off the field conduct.

Thanks for your kind words. I don't make those points to lower expectations for Allen this season. The last line of my OP is; "Couple all that with our team friendly schedule this season and I think Allen has a great shot at a break out season." (emphasis added) My point was that it is going to take time for the offense to click with so many new pieces. Both the players and the coaches will need some time to figure it all out. That is not something that is unique to the Bills either. It's common during the first quarter of the season to see defenses routinely out play offenses. It just takes longer for offenses to figure things out and click. With all the changes on the Bills offense that process may take a bit longer this year. That shouldn't preclude them from winning though. My point was the soft schedule in the first quarter of the season when the Bills offense is trying to find its identity may help mitigate those growing pains a little bit. I can't remember a schedule as Bills friendly as this year's is. I still think Allen takes a big step forward this season.

This is essentially a brand new offense this season. It will take some time for all these new players to get comfortable with each other, and just as importantly, it will take some time for Daboll to figure out what they are capable of, their strengths and weaknesses, and learn to game plan accordingly. I'm glad our schedule is easier out of the gate (at least on paper) and gets tougher at the the end of the season when hopefully the O-line has had time to gel and the offense is clicking.

I was wondering what the odds are of a second year QB continuing to develop versus experiencing the dreaded "sophomore slump". There are a few good articles about it that point to the fact that the Sophomore Slump is more fiction than fact since the mid 1980's. Here's a Bleacher Report story published in 2013. It takes a look at 2nd year quarterbacks. https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1699076-ranking-the-best-sophomore-qb-seasons-in-nfl-history#slide0 "So much of the discussion about a second-year quarterback revolves around the mythical sophomore slump. Rather than talk about that player taking a step forward in the NFL, we expect them to decline after experiencing rookie success. Including Cam Newton and Andy Dalton last year, 17 of the last 22 quarterbacks in position to have a sophomore slump did not have one. That means 77.3 percent either stayed at the same level or improved." In 2016 Rolling Stone took a look at this and came to the same conclusion; https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-sports/why-the-quarterback-sophomore-slump-is-football-myth-109876/ “That is the NFL today. Rookies now have expectations, because they can meet them. There is no sophomore slump. This is the year you take it to the next level, because that is what you are supposed to do.” This article from NFLMocks in 2017 also debunks the myth of the sophomore slump https://nflmocks.com/2017/07/21/nfl-quarterback-sophomore-slump-fact-fiction/ "Unless there’s a change in physical health or the team around a player, there’s little chance a dramatic decline will occur between years one and two." I think there are several solid reasons to believe that Allen avoids the "Sophomore Slump" this year. Consider the fact that at least seven of the ten players stepping onto the field with Allen this year should be a clear upgrade over last year's supporting cast. I don't think you can point to another team that has upgraded the overall offense between years one and two for a QB as much as the Bills have for Allen this off season. We all saw how much that six week break midseason helped Allen improve his game. I think Allen will continue to improve with an entire off season of study and a full training camp as the starting QB playing with the first team offense. He will know the offense inside out and feel more comfortable under center. Couple all that with our team friendly schedule this season and I think Allen has a great shot at a break out season.

My son and I will be there so we won’t be bored. I don’t think we will be selecting at 9. The question is are we trading up or down? I just don’t see Beane sitting there waiting to see what falls to him. That just doesn’t seem to be his style, he is more proactive. I think he will either identify his guy(s) and move up to grab him, or if his guy(s) are already gone, trade back and stock pile picks, maybe 2020 picks, or use the extra picks from moving back to jump right back up into the 1st round for a second player.

A quick run through the schedule and it looks like the only time we play a team coming off a rest is when we play the Redskins at home in Week 9. The Skins play the Thursday night game the week before. Other than that, we don't play a single team this season coming off their bye week. Gotta like that!

You just can teach the kind of athleticism that Edmunds has, and he still hasn't even grown into his body yet. It's easy to forget how young he is, the kid can't even buy a beer yet. We all get better with experience. I'm a lot better at my craft 23 years down the road compared to when I walked in for my first shift. McDermott/Beane seem to have a good eye for defensive talent and they though enough of Edmunds to trade back up into the 1st round to grab him. I think Edmunds is going to be special.

Just look at the Rams the last three years. Look at Gurley and Goff under Jeff Fisher. Now look at them under Sean McVay. Circumstances matter. A lot.

Agree with that 100%. I would have much rather had Ngata than Whitner. No argument from me on that. Our franchise's draft history has been more miss than hit for a long time. That's not a recipe for a successful team.

Hey Bill, I'd respectfully disagree with one of your points. You use the example of the Bills passing on Ngata and selecting Whitner instead. I would contend that Ngata might not have had the career he had if he started in Buffalo. And this is not just about Ngata specifically, but about any football player's success or failure in the league. There are so many variables that go into having a great career in this league, you just can't make a statement that Ngata would have been the same player in Buffalo. There is a lot of luck involved and a million variables that determine who has a Hall of Fame career and who doesn't. Who is on the roster at your position ahead of you? What scheme does the offense / defense run? Does it play to your strengths? Is your position coach fantastic or a dufus? Does the position coach like you? Is the team horrid with no supporting talent and you get double teamed and dominated every snap? Does a new coaching regime come in your second year and purge the roster of all the previous regimes's players? Do you get injured in training camp? Does your team draft another player at your position who outplays you or bring in a free agent? Do you get caught up in locker room politics or feel you're being treated unfairly by the coaches and become disillusioned and lose your desire to play? Etc, etc, etc... It's the same flawed thinking that leads people to say if we hadn't missed that field goal on the opening drive, we wouldn't have lost the game 21-20, as if the entire game wouldn't have been different from that point on after that successful field goal kick. There are way too many variables to make a simple apples to apples comparison about player's careers. It's more like an apples to toaster oven comparison. No one knows what would have happened if Ngata, just as an example, would have come to the Bills instead of the Ravens. To state that he would have had the same career is simply not supportable.

Grab Hockenson at #9 if he's still on the board. Hockenson has just as much potential to put up WR1 numbers as Metcalf does, but can also buttress the O-line, keep Allen upright, and facilitate the running game. Those are things that Metcalf can't do.

Agree with both of your posts. Some of the free agents will probably not make the final 53 and some of the players I included in the roster above won't make it either. The great thing, and the main point of my post, is that we are going to be cutting good players from the 53 man roster because we will have better players to replace them. If / when someone goes down with an injury this year it should not be a huge drop off in production because we will have quality depth behind them. I think this is going to end up being a very strong roster on opening day.

Yep, he should be on the list. I'll jump back in and add him to the roster. Now we are down to five openings left. Thanks.

I took the liberty of putting on my GM hat and went through the current roster and removed most of the back up players. The list below has 48 players on it. That leaves us room for five more players without having to cut a player listed below to stay at 53. It looks like a solid roster that should only get better after the draft. Hopefully we will be able to add at least two immediate starters in the draft. There are not too many players below who are an easy cut. It's not a bad problem to have. We are no longer looking to fill gaping holes in the roster, we are looking to strengthen already solid positions. I think we need one more TE, we went into the season last year with four on the roster. We could use some help at DE and LB. DT also has some room to grow. Do we draft a RB? It will be interesting to see which moves McBeane makes over the next two weeks. Offense / Special Teams; Free agents in bold 26 Total Josh Allen John Brown Matt Barkley Cole Beasley Derek Anderson Andre Roberts Zay Jones LeSean McCoy Robert Foster Frank Gore Duke Williams Senorise Perry Tyler Kroft Stephen Hauschka Jake Fisher Corey Bojorquez Jason Croom Reid Fergason Dion Dawkins Wyatt Teller Mitch Morse Spencer Long Ty Nsekhe Jon Feliciano LaAdrian Waddle Quinton Spain Defense; Free agents in Bold 22 Total Tre'Davious White Matt Milano Taron Johnson Tremaine Edmunds Levi Wallace Lorenzo Alexander Kevin Johnson Julian Stanford E.J. Gaines Trent Murphy Jordan Poyer Harrison Phillips Siran Neal Star Latulelei Micah hyde Jerry Hughes Rafael Bush Shaq Lawson Eli Harold Eddie Yarborough Mo Alexander Jordan Phillips

Great post Shaw. I couldn't agree more. It seems like the entire Bills organization is undergoing a renaissance. This franchise has been wandering in the desert for twenty years. I think it is finally our turn again. Wouldn't it be something for both the Bills and the Browns to make the playoffs this year? A little bit of redemption for two fans bases who have stayed loyal, weathered the dark days, paid their dues, and stoically endured all of the snide jokes and humiliation. This city and it's fans deserve a Super Bowl. I think we are entering our window of opportunity to contend for one.

I did, Thanks! He's kinda a big deal too... I'll jump back into the post and edit it.