Inigo Montoya

I don't think the league is fixed but I do think the refs are told to put their thumb on the scale at times to create a more competitive and entertaining contest. If one team is losing by a bunch I think the refs are more likely to "help" out the trailing team to make the game closer by throwing a few flags or not throwing them. People have always gambled on NFL football, but with the league now formally embracing it, and the amount of money being wagered skyrocketing, it's only a matter of time before someone gets bribed or blackmailed to throw a game. A ref, a player, a coach. It's inevitable. It will be a sad day for all of us, not if, but when that happens.

Beane signing Von was as close as Beane has ever come to "going all in", and unfortunately with the ACL injury, the gamble didn't pay off. Unless Von returns to form next season the Bills organizations will suffer for "going all in" and busting. We all knew it was a gamble when the signing was announced, and sometimes you lose when you gamble.

There's a thread simmering on Fins Heaven entitled "Do not resign Tua". It seems about evenly split on the proposition (link below). Tua is currently playing on the fourth year of his rookie contract at $9 million this year. They exercised his 5th year option and next year he will be on the books for $23 million fully guaranteed (link below). The question is what to do afterwards? I don't think there's a good answer for the Dolphins, either overpay a QB who probably isn't good enough to get you to a Super Bowl, or head back to wandering in the QB desert hoping to get lucky. With the escalation in QB contracts the Dolphins will be looking at $50 million a year to keep Tua. Look at the last several QB contracts yearly average (link below). Where do you slot Tua in when it's his turn? Burrow; $55 million Herbert; $52.5 million Lamar; $52 million Hurts; $51 million Wilson; $49 million Murray; $46.1 million There's a quote in the thread which pretty closely mirrors my opinion on the situation with Tua; "We're in the Daniel Jones no-man's land where we're gonna have to sign him since there's no one else and we're not going to be able to do it on the cheap so we're gonna be investing a lot of money in one guy who we're not even really sure is the guy since he has yet to actually ball out in a big game" https://finheaven.com/threads/do-not-resign-tua.381887/ https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/miami-dolphins/tua-tagovailoa-47598/ https://overthecap.com/position/quarterback

The original estimate for the build was $1.4 billion and any money over that estimate comes out of the Pegulas' pockets. The current cost estimate is now $1.7 billion and that is probably going to be significantly low. That means the Pegulas are already on the hook for $300 million. https://apnews.com/article/bills-new-stadium-cost-overruns-9846e00bd063cf2e8b12406af66c6ef9 Inflation continues to rise monthly. If you see reports that inflation is going down, what is actually happening is that the RATE of inflation is coming down. In layman's terms, what they're saying is that prices (inflation) went up again last month, but the amount that prices (inflation) rose last month was less than it rose the month before. A bit off semantics to put a positive spin on the fact that the cost of everything continues to go up. Before it's all said and done I wouldn't be surprised if the overage is in the $600-700 million range. I know Terry and Kim are flush, but they're not Bezos flush. That is a massive amount of money to come up with, particularly when a lot of the Pegulas' wealth isn't cash sitting in a bank vault somewhere. I don't see a construction contractor accepting a LNG lease in Pennsylvania in trade for building the stadium. If the Pegulas need to start cutting corners the promised "virtual tours" are a fine place start. I'd rather they skimp on stuff like that than the actual stadium.

Leonard Floyd is here on a team friendly one year contract and we would all love to see him extended. Epenesa has seemingly turned a corner and his rookie contract is up this year. Can the Bills afford to resign him? Rousseau has one more season under contract and will be a free agent in 2025. He looks like the real deal and it would be great to lock him up long term as a staple of the D-line going forward. DaQuan Jones is a free agent at the end of this season, just like Floyd and Epenesa are, and I suspect DaQuan will be a hot commodity on the free agent market. Can we afford to bring him back? The dark cloud hovering over all of these personnel decisions for Beane is the massive contract he gave Von to come to Buffalo. I linked to Von's contract below. That contract runs through the 2027 season and there are no cheap outs. Beane has also locked up Ed Oliver long term. His contract is below too. The combined cap hit for just Von and Ed next season is a whopping $44.5 mm. How much more can Beane invest on the D-Line? Who should he let walk? I won't even bring up other pending free agents like Rasul Douglas who has to be a priority to resign. Beane is going to have some tough choices to make and the salary cap isn't going to go up enough next year to save him. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/von-miller-7717/contracts/ https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/ed-oliver-29044/contracts/

Hey BillsFanForever, I thought the same thing and then I looked up his measurements and compared them to Diggs; Diggs; 6'0" 194 lbs Shakir; 6'0" 190 lbs I thought Shakir was smaller too. His size alone shouldn't disqualify him from being a boundary receiver. The question is does he have the ability to produce there? 🍻

Diggs contract is hefty and runs through the next three seasons. The Bills would take a big cap hit if he is gone before the 2027 season. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/stefon-diggs-16872/

Cincinnati showed the advantage of having 3 legit receiving options. There just aren't enough great DBs on one defense to cover them all. It definitely provides a strategic advantage. We seem to have found an O-line this year, we already have the QB, the receiving RB in Cooks, and Kincaid who looks like he can be a top 5 TE. If we can juice the WR position next season the Bills could field a juggernaut of an offense in 2024.

Shakir has come on over the second half of the season as Allen has seemingly grown more comfortable throwing him the ball. He has made some drive saving, and by extension, game saving receptions. He seems to get the ball in his hands and head straight up the field for YAC instead of dancing around. He runs crisp routes. He seems to have worked through his yips/drops issue and has been sure handed. He only had 8 receptions and 105 receiving yards through Week 7 of this season. At the end of Week 17, with the bye week in there, he is now sitting at 33 receptions on 39 targets and 506 receiving yards. He is averaging a gaudy 15.3 yards per reception. If he is made a bigger part of the passing offense and gets more targets, can he continue this upwards trajectory? If Gabe is too pricey to come back as the #2 next year, or if Beane and Brady simply want to move on from Gabe or open up competition for the role, does Shakir have the ability to leave the slot and move into that WR2 position? The prevailing wisdom is that Beane will draft a solid WR prospect and sign a veteran free agent WR to come in and compete for the #2 spot. I would have no problem with that plan and then have a camp battle between the new guys, possibly Gabe, and Shakir for the WR2 role. The question is what are the odds this is a situation like the recent MLB transition (Edmunds/Bernard) where Gabe's replacement is already on the roster in Shakir?

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/miami-dolphins-injury-update-tua-tagovailoa-bradley-chubb-xavien-howard-january-1-nfl-week-18-2024/ The jist is that Tua is likely fine, will almost certainly play. Chubb out with ACL. Xavien Howard not going to need surgery but very unlikely to play Sunday.

My thoughts (worth what you pay for them) 1. An ugly win is better than an ugly loss 2. Josh always rises to the occasion vs the Phins, might be a good launch game into the playoffs 3. If the Bills run anything other than the tush-push on 3rd and 1, they should beat Joe Brady with a stick 4. Von sitting today in favor of Epenesa was the right call. He needs to sit next week too. 5. Douglas is going to get a fat contract in the off season 6. It's crazy the Bills are looking at clinching the #2 seed after where they were after the Broncos fiasco 7. Will this season end up being the most unlikely of Bills' Super Bowls?

Losing Waddle will hurt the Phins during this stretch but not as much as their decimated O-line will. Oliver, Rousseau, Ford, and Floyd are going to have a day. Tua will have to create off schedule when his pocket is gone one second after the snap. That's not his thing.

I don't pretend to be an expert on NFL coaching or hiring, but McCarthy is a Super Bowl winning coach and has a 155-98-2 NFL coaching record. There may be racism in the hiring of NFL coaches, but Mike McCarthy isn't a very good example of it. The constant refrain of racism when there isn't any dilutes the power of the word when something truly is racist.

KC stacked ugly win after ugly win in the first half of the season when their offense wasn't clicking. Sometimes that's how you have to win. I wish the Bills had one more ugly win in the first half of the season. I'm not going to complain about this one.

Admittedly I’m not on TBD as much as I used to be, but it makes me very happy to see @YoloinOhio posting again! I was worried about you during your hiatus. Great to see you back!

Great set up for next week, the Phins will be sniffing their own farts all week after skunking the Jets 30-0, and the Cowboys just got humiliated by the Bills in the marquee game of the weekend and will be looking to put things right. I like it! Go Dallas!!!

That sack of Dak by Jordan Phillips in the 4th quarter made me scared for Dak's well being. Phillips is as big as a mountain and got redirected right into Dak's path with a full head of steam. I expected to see an imprint in the turf shaped like Dak's body when he slowly got up off the ground. Nasty.

No doubt he's played well but he's a statue and at 84 years old he's one defensive end or blitzing DB away from hospice care.

I was listening to ESPN radio on the way to work this evening (penance for something really bad that I did) and they were really talking up the Browns' playoff chances because Flacco was now their QB. Flacco? Like I said, it was ESPN...

I was listening to ESPN radio on my way to work this evening (penance for something really bad that I did) and they were really talking up the Browns' playoff chances because Flacco was now their QB. Flacco? Like I said, it was ESPN...

Under Dorsey Josh has regressed. It doesn't matter what the record is or what happened with 12 men on the field Monday night. This franchise will live or die, win or lose based on how #17 plays. If Dorsey can't get the best out of Josh, even if it is primarily Josh's fault, and I'm not making that claim, then they need to get someone in there who can. It's as simple as that. Better to do it now and see what Brady can do than wait to the end of the year and then start to look.

If Beane is going to go out and bring in a big free agent signing at the trade deadline and restructure a bunch of contracts to do it I would rather he add tot he offensive side of the ball. Our defense now is stellar and going to get better with Von back in two weeks. Another weapon to help Josh keep up with the Phins is where resources should be spent.

The Phins are going to be sniffing their own farts all week and come in cocky. I think that’s good for the Bills.

She's not dead. After years of brutal last second losses and watching the Bills ***** defeat from the jaws of victory, poor Becky finally snapped and kidnapped a Patriots fan named Edwin, keeping him chained up in a storage unit where she blared the Shout song at him non-stop for three straight weeks. Becky also set up a projector in the storage unit and hit poor Edwin with one of those orange foam chicken wing hats every time she showed him a picture of Tom Brady. Becky now lives in Miller's Merry Manor a "rest home" for those with severe emotional issues. In a twist of fate too strange for fiction, Becky has become great friends with Edwin who is also a resident there. They spend most of their days together writing threatening letters to Tom Brady that the rest home staff throws away.

Twelve of their writers were asked for their pick for AFCE champs in 2023. Below is all twelve of their picks and their reasoning. The Bills came out on top garnering 7 out of 12 votes; Bills - 7 Jets - 4 Phins - 1 Division odds per Yahoo: Buffalo Bills +125 New York Jets +250 Miami Dolphins +300 New England Patriots +800 Prisco: Bills. Despite all the fanfare for the Jets with Aaron Rodgers as quarterback, the Bills are still the team to beat. They will be improved on defense with Sean McDermott taking over and Josh Allen will again have a big year on offense -- even better than a year ago. The Jets and Dolphins will fight for second. Benjamin: Jets. The Bills are rightful favorites, but if Aaron Rodgers actually gets protection, Robert Saleh's squad is too talented in key areas -- on the ground, out wide, all across the defense -- to be a total disappointment. Better to bet on the future Hall of Fame QB than the injury-bitten Dolphins or sluggish Patriots. Dubin: Bills. Perhaps if Jalen Ramsey were still healthy or I had more confidence in the Jets' offensive line, I could pick against the Bills. But there's a reason we've thought this was arguably the best team in the league for several years now. Edwards: Bills. The pick may lack creativity but I have fewer concerns about the Bills than I do the other teams in the division. I still do not know what to expect from Mac Jones. Tua Tagovailoa's health is a concern in Miami. As a rule, it is often a fool's errand to place too much confidence in a 39-year-old quarterback even though I would generally be inclined to pick New York. It is a make-or-break year for Josh Allen and Buffalo. Wilson: Jets. I wasn't sure Aaron Rodgers would be a good fit in New York, but he appears as happy as ever, his teammates speaking glowingly of his leadership, and he's still one of the best QBs on the planet. And the Jets also have that dominant defense. Sullivan: Jets. I would have gone with the Dolphins had it not been for Ramsey's injury, but I do think the Rodgers-led Jets will have some spunk to them this season. The weapons around him are solid and the defense is top notch. This is more Stafford/Rams and Brady/Bucs than it is Wilson/Broncos. Dajani: Jets. Give me the Jets! This defense is a top-five unit and the offense finally has some consistency at the most important position in the game. The Jets have a nice wide receiving corps and a loaded running back room. Plus, a motivated Aaron Rodgers is the best Aaron Rodgers. DeArdo: Dolphins. Buffalo's three-year reign as the beasts of the East comes to an end. The Bills should get a wild card spot, though, along with Aaron Rodgers and the Jets. Semi hot take: One of these three teams will be in the AFC Championship game, if not the Super Bowl. Kerr: Bills. Love this value as Buffalo still has Josh Allen leading a loaded offense. Offensive line is a concern. Von Miller is also coming back at some point. Podell: Bills. The Bills are the current three-time reigning champion, and they have been one of the NFL's most dominant teams across the last three regular seasons, leading the league in points per game (29.4) and points allowed per game (19.4) in that span. Quarterback Josh Allen is the engine that drives the Bills, and he'll once again factor into another strong run for Buffalo in 2023. He provided gigantic production in 2022, ranking second in the NFL to only MVP Patrick Mahomes in total yards (5,045) and total touchdowns (42). With the additions of first-round pick tight end Dalton Kincaid and second-round pick guard O'Cyrus Torrence, Buffalo's offense could be more efficient in 2023, leading to a fourth straight division crown. Brinson: Bills. The lack of respect and interest in the Buffalo Bills this offseason is wild to me. This team has the second-most wins in the NFL behind the Chiefs over the last three years, has morphed into the new dominant franchise in their division and no one wants to back them to win this year, even in the division. Thank Aaron Rodgers and the Jets for the free chip on Buffalo's shoulder. Breech: Bills. It seems like the Bills have somehow become the forgotten team in the AFC East, but I would like them to know that I haven't forgotten about them.