Tyrod's friend

The Washington Redskins are calling to say Hi. Something about not having a good draft position for years, and only getting freaking lucky a 4th round pick ... um .. FELL INTO THEIR LAPS.

Davis Webb was the 7th ranked QB in 2017; taken as the fifth QB and given a 5.4 rating - I've gone pretty far down the rankings for this year. Once you get to 5.4 NFL Tracker is notably unreliable. FWIW, Nathan Peterman was rated 5.7 - as was McCarron. A ranking of 5.7 would be "Early NFL Starter" - and Webb did not qualify. In recent years I believe only Dak Prescott scored below a 5.5 and actually was a first year starter. I can't say for other positions, but I find the ranking system for QBs to be pretty remarkable in terms of where players are drafted relative to peers. PLAYER POS HT WT COLLEGE GRADE WATCH DARNOLD, SAM* QB 6'3" 220 USC 7.0 ROSEN, JOSH* QB 6'4" 226 UCLA 6.1 MAYFIELD, BAKER QB 6'1" 215 Oklahoma 6.0 ALLEN, JOSH QB 6'5" 233 Wyoming 6.0 JACKSON, LAMAR* QB 6'3" 200 Louisville 5.9 RUDOLPH, MASON QB 6'5" 235 Oklahoma St. 5.6 WHITE, MIKE QB 6'4" 225 Western Kentucky 5.6

I don't like the idea of moving up and the cost in this year's draft picks, to be clear. People say it can't happen as well because the GMen wouldn't do it. But I can easily see #12/#22/2019 #1 and 2020 #1 being incredibly interesting to any GM. With 2, #1 picks for three years in a row, the Giants position themselves to annually completely remake their squad as they see fit. And it leaves the Bills with all the rest of their draft capital for this year to get something like Will Hernandez, or Isiah Wynn, or Kolten Miller, or Frank Ragnow and then a WR like Sutton, or Chalk. Bang. Surrounded what you would hope would be Darnold with a third, great lineman, Shady and a great WR along with KJ. Not my idea of heaven, but you can make it work.

Thanks for the sarcasm. You do realize that the Head Coach says his team basically has said that the team isn't nearly as far ahead as their record indicates, right? It's not what I thought,s*t for brains. It's things like pythag, it's things like your own head coach has said. Go back to sleep.

Data can be valid without being information. Information is of course useful data. By presenting it you are suggesting that getting to the Pro Bowl is some sort of meaningful hurdle. Hardly is. And beyond that, I doubt that anyone here is particularly interested in whether or not Elvis Grbec or Trent Green were drafted late and both got last minute access to a Pro Bowl. It is particularly the intersection of the age of the information and the watered down aspect of just making a Pro Bowl that makes it less information and just ... data.

Let's hope. Price's injury is a gift from Heaven; he could slip all the way to the 4th round. Wynn, to me, sounds like Dion Dawkins (at least, physically; they play a different game). I never understood the fascination with Vlad. God, don't let the improvement on the line be these two signings.

Bodine signed for two years and $5MM. You can feel free to continue to believe that he isn't going to definitely make the roster, that he's camp filler if that's your belief. But you don't pay $5,000,000 over two seasons to guys that are only intended to spend time at St. John Fisher.

Sure. The quality of the depth is less. And the line last year was frankly terrible - especially with the RT and RG. The idea that I expect everyone to be a starter is bull (not that you are saying it). But as fans, let's be honest enough to call a spade a spade. This team was bad at several positions last year and just damned lucky to make the playoffs - we should have won somewhere around 6 games. Now at center instead of a near Pro Bowl Center in Eric Wood and a high quality backup in Groy, you have a high quality backup and really, a below replacement. Now ... if we use three of the top 6 picks and return great young talent - say, Wynn, Ragnow, MIller - ok. I'm wrong. But we're out of money and the 7th cavalry to upgrade the line is a turnstile RT and a much below league average C. From bad, to worse.

If you were to compare the quality of the depth of the line from last year to this, and tell me that it was anything but worse, you know you'd be lying to yourself. Last year C: Eric Wood and Ryan Groy This year C: Eric Groy and Russell Bodine Replayed at nearly every position along the line.

bad oline gets worse

Most productive QB since 2016 draft? A guy not on the three year list.

Yes, of course your underlying point is right; SSS are dangerous. But, the QB rating from NFL tracker was based on three or four years of work both the QBs put themselves through, and was a reflection against all the QBs they had ever seen. There is considerable reason to believe that the likelihood of these two QBs are more alike than not. So there's that. And to my knowledge, no one, in any sport anywhere, includes playoff numbers when making comparisons between players. Finally, there's this: SEASON TEAM G ATT COMP YDS INT TDS SACKED RATING 2010-11 Eastern Illinois 8 211 124 1639 13 14 18 133.6 2011-12 Eastern Illinois 11 349 217 2644 14 20 28 136.7 2012-13 Eastern Illinois 12 540 331 3823 15 31 29 134.2 2013-14 Eastern Illinois 12 492 320 4489 8 48 15 170.6 TOTAL 43 1592 992 12595 50 113 90 145.9 and this: Year School Conf Class Pos G Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate Career Alabama 686 1026 66.9 9019 8.8 9.6 77 15 162.5 *2010 Alabama SEC FR QB 13 30 48 62.5 389 8.1 9.4 3 0 151.2 *2011 Alabama SEC SO QB 13 219 328 66.8 2634 8.0 8.3 16 5 147.3 *2012 Alabama SEC JR QB 14 211 314 67.2 2933 9.3 10.8 30 3 175.3 *2013 Alabama SEC SR QB 13 226 336 67.3 3063 9.1 9.8 28 7 167.2 Do you think there is a whole bunch to differentiate between the two - other than Jimmy threw the ball more? I think those are pretty good sized numbers. As I say, you are right. But I think my point stands. Cheers, A

yeah. Data <> Information. Thanks.

Don't stop there. He replaced a QB that could have arguably been considered within the top 5 of all NFL QBs in 2015; he went on to complete 65% of his passes in his first year. He won two of three games, and the put in a reputable performance against the Steelers that in reality, the team lost through no fault of AJs. I'm pointing this particular point out because some people are wanting to look at McCarron and compare him to Tyrod. How absurd. The comp in statistics would be to the player he replaced, working in the exact same situation. It is reasonable enough to say that he was put in a hard situation and the Bengals absorbed very, very little headwinds from it. Did he not pass for a lot of yards? Surely anyone that offers that has got to be joking. Their team was in a playoff run, the top QB was replaced, and we're expecting the OC to put in an aggressive offensive scheme of downfield passing??? I digress. He heavily criticized his college HC - a legend. Still, after that Nick Saban came to his defense. I suppose that is irrelevant. You could go to NFL Tracker. In 2014, he was rated 5.7 (Eventual NFL Starter). The "other guys"? Bortles, Bridgewater, Carr and Garapolo were all rated between his 5.8 and 6.2. So, three guys that led their teams to the NFL playoffs and a $27MM guy - and that last guy was a career backup until when? Let's stop and take a look at Jimmy Garapolo's numbers. Jimmy Garoppolo Passing Statistics for Career Games 2014 to 2016 Games Passing Passing Year Tm G GS QBrec Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD TD% Int Int% Lng Y/A AY/A Y/C Y/G Rate QBR Sk Yds NY/A ANY/A Sk% 4QC GWD 2014-2016 NWE 17 2 2-0-0 63 94 67 690 5 5.3 0 0 37 7.3 8.4 11.0 40.6 106.2 8 51 6.26 7.25 7.8 He had a total of 94 attempts, nearly all of them not coming until 2016. Just to comp ... and remember, NFL Tracker considered the two QBs to be nearly identical in overall rating. A.J. McCarron Passing Statistics for Career Games 2014 to 2015 Games Passing Passing Year Tm G GS QBrec Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD TD% Int Int% Lng Y/A AY/A Y/C Y/G Rate QBR Sk Yds NY/A ANY/A Sk% 4QC GWD 2014-2015 CIN 7 3 2-1-0 79 119 66.4 854 6 5 2 1.7 66 7.2 7.4 10.8 122.0 97.1 12 63 6.04 6.27 9.2 Maybe you see a lot of difference there. I don't. They are different players with different limitations but there isn't a reason in heck why a two-time NCAA champion that is supported by Nick Saban, that has had his own level of success in the NFL, that completes passes at a 66% rate for his entire career and admirably led his team down the stretch to a home game against the Steelers ... can't do well in Buffalo. If only you surround him with talent. He's not going to do it on his own.

Two problems with this data point: Pro Bowl is meaningless; All-Pro is the standard Time frame is entirely too long. 15 years covers the current span of quality QB play; if you'd prefer to get back to the entire careers of people like Peyton Manning, so be it. Do we honestly care that in 1993 someone drafted an eventual Pro Bowl QB in the 8th round?

I'd very much agree; I think that Lamar is in play as well, but not with anything more than a second round pick. And that's a push. I think if we move up at all, it should be to take that #22 and get closer to 15, and move that #12 to #8. I'd rather leave this draft with knowing I surely got two potential Pro Bowl players. It sure looks to me that players like Price, Orlando Brown, PSU WR Hamilton, QBs like White, Falk & such ... there are going to be there in the 4th, 5th, 6th rounds. Get at least one if not two guys that are near sure-fire, Pro Bowl players in the 1st round and don't f around. If that means busting a move on two generational players (Nelson and Roquan Smith, for instance), then do it. Use future draft capital, move Jerry Hughes. LOL. That's what I think this day. Give me til after lunch and check back then!

You could see it that way; or this: There was hardly any difference out of college between a guy that has been given a $27MM contract, a guy that is on our roster right now, and a QB very, very likely to fall to us at 12. I'm reminded of the saying, "Don't just do something. Sit there."

Just another player to make my case.

I don't think it's overrated; if 5.7 is considered to be Early NFL Starters, there's a fair number of them. It's not unusual though. PLAYER POS HT WT COLLEGE PICK TEAM GRADE WATCH Bortles, Blake QB 6'5" 232 Central Florida Pick 3, Round 1 (3) Jaguars 6.2 Bridgewater, Teddy QB 6'2" 214 Louisville Pick 32, Round 1 (32) Vikings 6.1 Carr, Derek QB 6'2" 214 Fresno St. Pick 4, Round 2 (36) Raiders 6.1 Manziel, Johnny QB 6'0" 207 Texas A&M Pick 22, Round 1 (22) Browns 6.1 Garoppolo, Jimmy QB 6'2" 226 Eastern Illinois Pick 30, Round 2 (62) Patriots 5.8 McCarron, AJ QB 6'3" 220 Alabama Pick 24, Round 5 (164) Bengals 5.7 To me this is the most similar draft to this year. The only thing this year has is one presumably outstanding QB in Sam Darnold. There's nothing wrong with the 2014 draft - ultimately it might prove to provide two unexpected Franchise QBs in the second round. (With two understandings: NFL Draft Tracker isn't the be-all and say-all, and knowing that the NFL Draft Tracker has gotten the QB picks at the top pretty much on point since 2012). PLAYER POS HT WT COLLEGE GRADE WATCH DARNOLD, SAM* QB 6'3" 220 USC 7.0 ROSEN, JOSH* QB 6'4" 226 UCLA 6.1 MAYFIELD, BAKER QB 6'1" 215 Oklahoma 6.0 ALLEN, JOSH QB 6'5" 233 Wyoming 6.0 JACKSON, LAMAR* QB 6'3" 200 Louisville 5.9 RUDOLPH, MASON QB 6'5" 235 Oklahoma St. 5.6 WHITE, MIKE QB 6'4" 225 Western Kentucky 5.6

That was very cool website ... my outcome ... I moved up and spent some of next year's capital to get a great LBer. Then I traded down, twice, to compile back the picks this year and get Lamar Jackson, both the OSU WRs, a good TE to split out wide, got a gift in Orlando Brown being available in the 3rd round. Round 1 Pick 7 (T.B.): Smith, Roquan, ILB/OLB, Georgia (A-) Round 2 Pick 13 (G.B.): Jackson, Lamar, QB, Louisville (A) Round 2 Pick 24: Chark, DJ, WR, LSU (A) Round 2 Pick 29 (JAX): Hurst, Hayden, TE, South Carolina (A-) Round 3 Pick 1: Washington, James, WR, Oklahoma State (B+) Round 3 Pick 12 (G.B.): Holmes, Jalyn, DE, Ohio State (B+) Round 3 Pick 32: Brown, Orlando, OT, Oklahoma (A) Round 4 Pick 1 (G.B.): Brown, Andrew, DT, Virginia (A) Round 4 Pick 21: Jones, Jamarco, OT, Ohio State (A+) Round 5 Pick 29: Haley, Grant, CB, Penn State (A+) Round 6 Pick 13: Ateman, Marcell, WR, Oklahoma State (A+)

and we all do recognize the pedigree of our new OC, right?

not enough information; beyond that, I am arguing about a generational guard. Alan Faneca, Steve Hutchinson and Dave DeCastro played almost all of the entire careers for one team. I suppose that tells you what the NFL thinks about the choice between players.

Two ways you could look at it. In the last 20 years or so, there have been exactly three great guards drafted. Faneca, Hutchinson and I would say DeCastro. Over that time there's been many, many great QBs. Offensive tackles galore; you could have replaced a great WR many times over, probably every year. I see it as there is a scarcity of great players at the position - and when one comes along, it is a "generational" player. You could say that they don't provide value. Frankly, that's stupid but you are entitled to your opinion and no doubt you think I am stupid for mine. Cheers.

Again, the numbers tell. The most value in the draft come from the 1st, then 2nd, then 3rd round. Internet analysts, at best, are held to whether or not they got their picks aligned with the NFL - not whether or not they accurately got abilities right. Most often their failures are simply ignored. And using an Internet analyst to make your decisions leaves you like the kid cheating off the student that is going to get at best a C anyways. Hey, whatever. Have a great Sunday.

Please. There are few players I so loved in any draft as I loved DeCastro. Short term burst, strong, great punch on initial impact, could pass protect and run block. Perfect size - at least, at the time. Yeah. He was late round because he was pushed down. And it turned out on some levels he should have been because it was a great draft - and at the end of the day it could turn out to be one of the best drafts ever. And he was very MUCH being touted as generational. He had and other than Quinton still has the highest grade of any pure Guard since 2012. He was widely mocked at the time as potentially being the first guard to go top 10 since that guy from New Orleans. At the time, it was widely considered a great draft for PIttsburg to have gotten a talent like DeCastro so late in the draft.