Tyrod's friend

I'm sorry, if you think that Mayfield got less right on the white board than Rudolph, you heard the wrong interview. All Rudolph did was repeat verbatim what Mooch said. Baker actually elaborated on Mooch's commentary, he amplified and gave different variables. I don't think the conversations were even marginally in the same area. I don't care one wit if Mason remembered the names of the players. Mayfield talked about different looks that he might face using that offense and how he'd respond to those variables. Every fighter has a plan til he gets hit - Mike Tyson. You want a QB to handle pressure, Baker Mayfield knew his reads and his performance - pretty much, from what I've read, this is what he did alone best of any QB this year - got better when the play broke down.

Honestly, not to be snarky or anything ... but with ALL THAT NFL level talent around him, all those great skill players ... is it fair enough to show that he completed 56% of his passes? That he still had 15 INTs against 28 TDs? This was in his "good season". He is a walking time bomb. I don't care how strong his arm is. Any GM blowing a 1st round pick on this guy, in this particular draft had better be so correct that he's just proven the earth is flat. Worse yet if that guy is the GM for a team as needy of talent as ours.

Two California QBs are available for the Broncos.

Yeah, thats right. Good choice! Have you spent a couple of good minutes there? For me, to watch the NFL draft I could care less about the food. Beer (sorry) is beer. It's about a room full of fanatics. Big Tree is pretty hard core.

Yeah, I hear this. I always loved Tyson's line: Every fighter has a plan until he gets hit. Schemes are where you start. Great coaching starts when there is 29:59 left on the clock.

Surprised no one has suggested Big Tree Inn on Abbott. Might take a little doing to get a hotel I suppose.

If Mason Rudolph is off the board at 12 (and presuming someone actually does take Allen) ... it means the draft has pushed down to you probably one of the top six positional players in the draft. Most analysts are suggesting there are around 8 Pro Bowl players - possibly as many as 12. I know it's heresy, but there is a worse situation to be in than to have that kind of situation. You'd be at 12, with 22 and a bunch of ammo to move up to 14 or 15 and get two of the highest quality players in a stocked draft. Hell, I'd almost prefer to see 5 or please God! 6 QBs gone and be in that kind of situation. Reading Gunnar's analysis I like that scenario even more.

very true.

good sense of humor here. My vote would be for anyone strictly an offensive tackle inside the top 64. Possibly, inside the full first three rounds. Too much talent elsewhere, no much in needs. Turnstile needs to be replaced, but if you put add either a near Pro Bowl C or G into that line you can make him disappear.

In a scenario where Rudolph is on the board at 12, and the big three (sorry. Allen is no where near that group) have been drafted ... would you rather take the chance that someone like Falk or White was available in the 2nd, or pre-emptively take Rudolph to prevent another team from taking him? So many teams at the bottom of the draft with a match to him that could move up inexpensively above 22. (Presumes that several truly blue-chip opportunities are at 12 - possibly at least 2 or 3 Top 8 talent players (for argument's sake, Nelson, Davenport, Edmunds, Fitzpatrick, James, Ward - depending on the ranking). )

I'm not worthy. Just a great write-up, better than literally every single "pro" write up I've read. Congratulations.

It's a good thread, btw. I have no problem with you being Debbie Downer. In the case of this particular OC you know with almost certainty he's going to use the Erhardt Perkins offense. It's all Daboll has ever known. We know this offense to be the most QB-centric approach in football. It focuses on versatile skill position players that can line up all over the field and handle a fairly easy communication scheme. It is neither run nor pass centric, neither fast paced nor methodical. I've argued the OPs side before; he'd never really developed a positional player to stardom. But a great deal of the benefit of the EP approach is that it de-emphasizes specificity in drafting particular skills and emphasizes flexibility. Flexible players are not those designed to stardom, generally. Look at the skill set players we've brought in for visits: Goedert, Penny, Samuels. I don't know these guys specifically but their write-ups tell me a story of players that do multiple things well. And either your QB has it or he doesn't - accuracy and timing, as I've detailed elsewhere, is not a skill set you develop in the NFL. QBs are remarkably consistent in their completion percentage for the first four to six years in the pros. He is going to run the same play he has been running all day and the success is going to be based on pre-snap reads. Again: the massive interest in Baker Mayfield, and Falk, and Rudolph. To a lesser degree, Rosen. It strikes me that either McCarron or Nate Peterman would be excellent at running this type of offense. It wouldn't surprise me in the least that the HC's fascination with Peterman played a (small) role in Daboll getting hired. IMO, there are limited trigger men in this draft that fill the bill for Buffalo and Daboll. But I think my favorite Buffalo targets are known. I would think that they have ruled out Josh Allen; they might be intrigued with Lamar Jackson because he comes from the same offense, but he hasn't been truly successful. I'm not sure if Daboll will be successful but either you get the right QB for him or you are absolutely, positively sunk. The Bills should float okay with McCarron and even Peterman. But either the QB can complete the pass or he can't and no downfield passing is going to temper that. A pre-snap read should be the simplest thing to teach in the NFL - easier than changing footwork, easier than manipulating your throwing motion. It's going to be a pretty interesting year.

Actually, from another poster! He mentioned that the data was available and shared conclusions on it. When I checked the data it seemed he was correct. Cheers. http://wonderlictestsample.com/nfl-wonderlic-scores/

You are accepting common beliefs. Don't limit yourself. First, that you need a lot of picks to succeed. In a great year, you have two impact players in a draft. The rest of the draft is, on a normal year, just players. We've come off a great draft and although there were some players (is Milano that good? Maybe, we'll see.) it's mostly great because you got a cover corner and a LT (who was, let's face it, supposed to be RG). If you are really, really right at #2 or #3, you just need a stroke of luck for that other player. Second, that you absolutely need to denude this year of draft picks. Simply moving #12, a position player (Shady? Lawson? Shady & Lawson??) plus maybe next year's 1st and possibly one of the seconds this year should get you awfully close to #2. I'm not a GM and I don't play one on TV. You work around the edges and make it happen. Fans can pull this idea apart but don't get stuck in the weeds. If you have the second pick this year, at least three (four?) more picks in the top 100 you have more, MORE than enough shots to make it happen. The draft is deep enough for you to get a lineman, a running back and possibly, a linebacker/edge rusher inside the top 65. There are a great number of average-to-mediocre WRs in the draft to be taken after the 3rd round. A cornerback would be nice but you have 4 potentially outstanding players in your secondary today - no need to be greedy. Finally, this is not nearly a playoff team no matter what the draft delivers. Get the pieces you need, help the process along. I'm not saying you have to move up to #2 or #3. I'm' just saying concluding out of the box that you can't have enough draft choices remaining after you trade up to get help this roster is a non-starter for me. It would take some unique thinking and a reasonable idea of what is possible. If you retain all your picks it only increases the likelihood you'll be really successful - but at the end of the day, 2 superior players pretty much is the top of the mark. A great, franchise changing draft is 3. Edit: And to Tuscon - welcome and as of this moment I am incredibly jealous. Tuscon in April is wonderful I hear.

maybe so, seems logical. But I'd guess the parameters of the deal are already written. And the more I think about a trade with the Giants, the more I think Shady gets included and not Lawson. It's not an easy trade, but the Bills seem to have met with four or five draftable running backs, and that's a lot when you've just invested money in a backup running back.

Let me draw attention to the fact that the Bills are hosting/meeting an unusual amount RBs for a team that just invested a fair amount in Ivory and some roster guys ...

I envy guys like you. You probably have really, really big sneakers. Seriously, is there anything you've seen that correlates small hands to failure among QBs? One of the things an older poster set up here was a history of the Wonderlic. It helped to frame how I see Lamar Jackson; did he simply not study that exam in the way he stubbornly decided not to run/not have an agent and then on some level is actually a person to be possibly admired, or is he frankly sort of stupid? Hand size. I hear it a lot and I've never seen it substantiated. edit: nvm. Gotta love Google. https://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/09/upshot/big-hands-small-colleges-and-the-nfl-draft.html

Yeah ... but if you run that simulator a couple of times, it has like the Browns taking a CB #1 overall - and not even one of the top CBs. Terrible AI powering the choices.

And this is what makes you a jacka$$. Because you continually - and not just to me, but to everyone - want to deny them the right to have an opinion. The WHOLE POINT of doing objective analysis is to come away with an opinion. OBVIOUSLY I DO NOT KNOW. Does that it ANY WAY need to be stated clearly? Get off your high horse and stop condemning people for thinking something. Edit: Really. I mean just look at the history of your posts. You are f-in ja$$, tell-people-to-shut-up loser. We are all entitled to have an opinion here. And in my entire time posting on boards like this, going back nearly 20 years I've never felt the need to put someone on ignore. Always gotta be a first and you are it, fella.

so three of the people Beane/Panthers brought in wound up as being a pick of either the Bills or Panthers. And you say you wouldn't look too much into this?

Welcome. I hadn't tried this simulator, but this is what I came up with (no trade version). At 12 I had two QBs, and a couple of top 10 DBs on the board. At 22 there was two stud linebackers - Evans and Vanderder - and Guice was the 6th overall talent in the draft. We still get Malik in the 2nd, a stud defensive lineman in Phillips, Ragnow was a gift at the top of the third. Best part of the system is it's incredibly fast. Pick Player Pos College 1:12 Baker Mayfield QB Oklahoma 1:22 Derrius Guice RB LSU 2:21 Harrison Phillips DE Stanford 2:23 Malik Jefferson LB Texas 3:1 Frank Ragnow C Arkansas 3:32 DaeSean Hamilton WR Penn St. 4:21 Shaquem Griffin LB UCF 5:29 Kameron Kelly CB San Diego St. 6:13 Scott Quessenberry G UCLA Here are the insane computer generated picks ahead of us ... so you have to wonder what sort of AI is powering these choices. Pick Team Player Pos College 1:1 CLE Sam Darnold QB USC 1:2 NYG Connor Williams OT Texas 1:3 NYJ Roquan Smith LB Georgia 1:4 CLE Maurice Hurst DT Michigan 1:5 DEN Josh Rosen QB UCLA 1:6 IND Joshua Jackson CB Iowa 1:7 TB Minkah Fitzpatrick FS Alabama 1:8 CHI Saquon Barkley RB Penn St. 1:9 SF Calvin Ridley WR Alabama 1:10 OAK Denzel Ward CB Ohio St. 1:11 MIA Bradley Chubb EDGE NC St.

Interesting as well their interest in running backs - particularly what I would call Tier 1 running backs, after putting a fair amount of cash into Shady's caddy. Perhaps I'm reading too much into it, but it strikes me that it implies a trade of one of the remaining big contracts isn't an impossibility.

At the end of the day, I see microeconomic theory as applicable when the costs are known or at least can be nearly quantified. I think Beane did a remarkable job of this during the offseason and even during the previous year. He's manipulated the cost structure/talent level/output with a scalpel. But dealing in variables like the NFL draft and in particular, the outcomes of an NFL QB from the draft, life gets pretty muddled pretty fast. And in this particular situation, it's not only the costs involved to you. It is the costs associated with allowing someone else - particularly your rival - to use that excess value against you for the next 10 years. The process is in place and I'll trust it. But if the next 20 years turns out pretty much like the last 20, there are going to be only a few teams standing with a real QB that takes them to the Super Bowl year after year and this seems like a pivotal point in that process. Baker Mayfield, possibly Josh Rosen. The rest of it is noise.

There is a difference between having a competent starter in place and having a franchise QB. Other than Brady and Roethlisberger, only two QBs have started a SB for the AFC in the last 16 years. We are looking for that magic in a bottle, and those two guys are leaving the stage. Opportunity's knocking and there are two chances - Rosen and Mayfield. Baker Mayfield, #1, overall. If he isn't you should move heaven and earth to get him. Don't let him get to NYC.

It was a good defense. No doubt. The scope of a player isn't told on one day. Josh Rosen is a talented man. He has great footwork, as every tennis player would, and it leads to consistent delivery. Behind the right offensive line he will win several Super Bowls. Things that you do, over and over and over (or fail to do) in college ... between 23 and 30, these things don't change. I'll say this: Baker Mayfield strikes me as the best QB not only in this draft but in several. Because being a truly, truly great QB isn't what you do on any given Sunday. It hasn't a thing to do with your God given ability. Its what you do when the world is falling apart around you. Baker Mayfield is a winner in the tradition of Doug Flutie, in the tradition of Archie Manning, in the tradition of Russell Wilson. But the difference between Baker and those other winning, quick-twitch QBs is he's the most accurate QB I've ever seen. That inspires others and I think at the end of the day will put fear into a defense on Sundays. He is the only guy I could understand opening up the vault to obtain. Mason Rudolph? He's just another QB. He doesn't stink but he strikes me as Josh McCown. I'd rather take a great linebacker (Smith) and a great offensive lineman (Wynn) in the first before I'd take Mason Rudolph. As I've said too many times. Baker Mayfield should go #1, overall and I think we'll be able to get Josh Rosen at the 6th or 7th pick for much less than what people think we'll need to give up.