Tyrod's friend

And you would know this because he played on which good team, exactly? Did I miss something in the last three years, where Buffalo had a "good team"?

Two things: Rudolph's arm was timed out as stronger than Peterman, Lamar Jackson and DeShaun Watson. It probably is strong enough for the NFL, but it is considerably weaker than the other top 4. And I've never seen Rudolph throw with his feet nearly as mucked up as Peterman on that particular toss. Just saying.

Nothing to do with being on a bandwagon, it's about football 101. I could care less about the Browns, I'd like to see the Bills win and not find myself throwing things at the TV. Win the turnover battle, you have a shot to win the game; win the ratio and control the clock, you'll almost certainly win more than you'll lose. And it won't matter if you have Tyrod t Let me share with you some names: Alex Smith Tom Brady Jared Goff Case Keenum Drew Brees Carson Wentz Philip Rivers Matt Stafford Russell Wilson What is A List of Playoff QBs? No. QBs with a low INT ratio. Funny thing that the rest of the NFL could grasp that idea, but Buffalo couldn't. Good luck with AJM, NP and a rookie. I'm guessing the over/under on INTs next year at ... 20? 25? Any-wayz ... good luck Ty. Thanks for doing a respectable job for $hit wages and no respect for three years. Hopefully you'll get paid in 2019.

Baker Mayfield - far and away the best QB prospect, and second best prospect (Barkley) that this draft will graduate. Just imagine ... if the Browns take Barkley first overall and practically goad the Jets into taking Darnold. It will leave them with Barkley AND Mayfield. SMH.

He isn't "good enough" - if that means you are looking for Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady or even DeShaun Watson. I couldn't agree with you more. What Buffalo never seemed to grasp about Tyrod was that you could win with him, if you surrounded him with a semblance of talent and didn't ship out his #1 and #2 WRs and have an offensive line in general disarray. Oh yeah, and team him up with an offensive mastermind that was able to come up with a nearly historic meltdown every second half. How we won five of the first seven games last year while doing OTJ training with three of the five OL is a mystery to me. 1%. Think about that next year and for the next five years. Every time you see a pick six or this team lose the turnover ratio, you remember Tyrod Taylor, and take a look UP at the Cleveland Browns.

Masterful response.

Why would other teams turn up their nose? It's a good enough point. If Rosen was good enough for us why is he less important to another team. Let's start with the premise that next year's 1st Rd = this year's 2nd Rd. And obviously we have what they have; a full compliment of 2019 picks (on top of what we have this year - which is more than what any other team has). In the case of the Patriots they sort of have a guy at QB. But seriously I'm pretty sure the Pats haven't made a huge move up since they jumped to 5 overall to get Seymour. And although the Pats have the picks, they are lower all along the way to what the Bills have. Finally, the Patriots have real, real roster problems that make the Bills issues seem tame. Again, the Dolphins have a QB, and they even have a guy behind the guy. You might conjecture that they want to replace him but a team moving veritably an entire draft to get a QB to replace a starter that's under control ... do you remember it ever happening? I don't. In both cases the reason to me is that you can build a case for them needing a a QB, it isn't pressing on the level of Buffalo's need. You are suggesting a radical reaction to a less than radical need. And in order to do it, they need to get into a pissing contest with a team that is a) desperate and b) better equipped than they are to get that need covered. . Go the distance and put yourself in their shoes. Are you denuding 2018 and probably 2019 in order to hopefully replace a guy that can play right now? In my mind, it's never happened. Cheers. Just a week away.

True, but this: If you bust with a presumably safe pick, nobody is second guessing you. If you bust at the top of the draft taking a guy everyone warned you about, you're a real idiot. It's said no stock broker ever got fired for telling a client to buy Berkshire Hathaway. But wouldn't buying Netflix five years ago feel pretty good right about now?

What, exactly, are the Cardinals using as bait to get someone to step away from the #2 pick in the draft? Or Miami, or the Patriots? When we were at 21 and 22, it was said we didn't have the ammo to get inside the top 5. And that was with multiple 2s and multiple 3s. Then we moved a starting LT and other teams with less have some way to get inside the 5? I really, really doubt it. But I agree. By the time Elway makes the decision to trade #5, our wings will be creating indigestion.

To five? No F'n way. And if so, so long, I'll wait to trade with Indy or TB.

12/53/65 should about cover it.

Two of the top 4 should be available at 5. First, don't negotiate against yourself. Second, I am in no way worried about another team out negotiating Brandon Beane. DEN, INDY, TB ... they aren't doing a thing until 1BD says "too rich". I think the reason our brain trust went to see Darnold is because they are pretty sure of Allen/#1 Mayfield #3 and both Rosen/Darnold available at the turn.

my namesake says Hi. Completion percentage - and by that, I mean 67% is base minimum. If you are completing that many passes, all the other numbers fall into place.

i think there is a fair chance one of the four is available at 12. Don't negotiate against yourself, don't assume anyone but you really, really wants the guy you want. I voted to stay put, but I'm open to moving to #6.

Three guys I would identify as potential HOF from 2011 to 2016. JJ Watt, Luke Keuchley and possibly Aaron Donald. There are NO QBs I would say are HOF in that time period. Watt makes his team good. I think Keuchley does as well; basically Cam Newton is a one year wonder but I'll grant you that's a tossup. Aaron Donald is too soon to tell. Does the QB make the team or the other way around? I give you Jared Goff, 2016 and Jared Goff, 2017. Two important changes in coaching, some WRs, and an OT does wonders for a guy, doesn't it? Let's put this another way: if the team doesn't make the QB, how can you explain the lack of success of some college QBs that make it in the pros? I'm constantly reminded here about how this guy or that guy suddenly got better in the pros. Why wasn't that immensely talented guy able to lift his team? How could anyone possibly consider Josh Allen as a #1 pick? How is it that the very best season you've seen by a QB not get replicated someplace else immediately - and have people tell me that Nick Foles is not a franchise QB? You can't have it both ways.

And what you quoted was ancient history which I could care less about. Circumstances changed drastically in 2010, making analysis relevant through that time period. If you can't understand the dollar investment and how that would change decision making, then forget about it. I stand on what I posted. There's a stack of **** you aren't even close to talking about (like normalizing returns on a decision) which makes the entirety of your argument about as flawed as could be.

Because I don't want to put this some other place ... A recent "mock" suggested something I think most of us would welcome: the Bills being able to move #12 and #22 to get Josh Rosen at #4. (No mention of 2nd round picks also going, which I would believe would be necessary but doesn't impact this question). The resulting draft sent Daniels at 21 to Cincinnati and McGlinchey at 22 to the Browns. Understanding in advance the lunacy of the 100% accuracy of the rear view, would you prefer Josh Rosen behind our current line or Glenn Groy (Miller?) Daniels Dawkins McGlinchey I would tend to think that offensive line could be one of the most dominant in football, stocked nearly from end to end with players that are 28 or younger and under control for some time at a reasonable price. I would think that this offensive line makeup is probably an annual savings of over $40,000,000 or more on replacement costs. It is reasonable to say that this offensive line would provide you with the financial flexibility to acquire a Tier 1 WR and possibly a Tier 1 LB.

I based the response on Bandit's reasonable limitations of on the salary capped years. Second, the main point in my post was that Bandit's sample itself had 38 QBs drafted in after the 3rd round. I will stand on that being a reasonable basis for making a conclusion. Finally, at the end of the day neither you nor Bandit account for the fact that using a top pick on a QB doesn't come without a cost. Between 2011 and 2016, All-Pro appearances by non-QB drafted in the top round far outpace QBs. In point of fact, there are very likely at least two (reasonably enough, three) Hall of Fame players drafted in the first round in that time period and I highly doubt you'll see one QB. You don't get to use that first round designation for free. All players drafted in the first round are more likely to be successful than players later. A failure to use that pick wisely on a QB doesn't only stagnate the offense - you likely ruined your chances in other ways. Cheers.

Hey bud. Hope you are enjoying the day. There's a couple of problems I have here: first of all, when you are taking a "top five" selection and using it on a QB, you are leveraging true opportunity costs - and they have to be adjusted for the risk involved. To use the vernacular of the Giants GM, those are Gold Jacket picks. Comparing the possible results of a lottery ticket used on a 4th round pick to a top five choice ... you can see where I am going here, right? There's been ONE All Pro season delivered by a QB drafted between 2011 and 2016. Again, you can argue about relative value but you have to get back to the cost of the pick. Second, from 2011 to 2016 in rounds 2 and 3 I've got five guys I'd call a Franchise QB out of 15 choices (Carr, Garrapolo, Foles, Wilson and Dalton) - 33% hit rate. These are players a team is going to give a reasonable shot at winning the job. Of the 38 picked in the 4th or later, not a single one of those guys had a snow ball's chance in hell (and yet a couple still made it). A 4th round pick, playing a normal position, has an uphill battle to win a starting position. To be drafted in the 4th round, a QB is automatically ticketed to AT BEST hold the clipboard and hope for disaster in the injury department. Statistically speaking, I think your analysis has got one helluva a long tail going on here. I mean we can quibble about Foles or Dalton, but there's a clear delineation that using the same analysis of guys after 3 can't be used to paint R1 to R3. And beyond that we can go back to the value the likelihood of ANY 4th round pick turning up a franchise player at any position. Finally this: in the last two years, your case has water but let's be careful to not fall prey to recency bias. Sure, Winston, Goff, Wentz, Marriota were hits. Look at strictly the top three rounds between 2011 and 2014 - the rounds where teams are truly trying to at least find a starter at QB - and more Franchise Guys were found after the top 5 than in the top 5. Don't get me wrong; I pretty much agree with your conclusions but likewise, you are playing pretty free and easy with this whole thing. F'ahk. How many days left? Can't we just pull a Namath? Hide Baker in a hotel room and sign him before he gets an offer from someone else?

first two years of playing he put up nearly exactly Wentz numbers; over his first three years he was equally outstanding. Moved into the vortex of Fisher's black hole and then to KC. Not my cup of tea, but he can play ball. Period. His first three years in the NFL he was fine. You are going to hold it against him that he was playing for Jeff Fisher? Ask Jared Goff how that goes. Comes back to Philly and all he does is win three straight post season games. Consistent enough.

Two good choices. It's almost inconceivable to think of what Barry could have done with a legitimate franchise. LT was the greatest force I ever saw, far better than Bruce. But Barry touched the ball 20-30 times a day, and Taylor impacted all 50 plays on offense. Taylor.

2004 says hello. No reason we should have lost that season finale against Pitt; we were primed to go 10-6, great offense and good enough defense. Like him or not, Drew was a franchise type QB. Great special teams play. Fans forget that team averaged nearly 40 points a game on that five game stretch towards the end. I think it was the most well rounded team since Jim Kelly was the QB.

I understand your haste in trying to take me to task for attacking your boy. But re-read my post. All I was saying was that he was familiar with the system, buddy. Was he or wasn't he familiar with the offense in 2016? With all that, in a defense-challenged conference he managed to be part of barely a .500 team. Nearly every team he played against in his conference scored 35 points per game and despite having an 1900 yard rusher was the second best QB to an immortal QB out there. By your own admission he was surrounded with great talent. I think those are pretty important facts, and they are straight, and they go to the point that Josh Allen had a reasonable but not statistically significant season in 2016. Try a little decaf.

Yeah, I'm going to Mobile! You wanna ride? I got the map right here under my shirt ...

No intent on snark here but ... He was completing around 49% of his passes on a JUCO team in 14, right? He was with the WY program in '15 riding pine, and then in 16 he played on a team with five or six NFL offensive talents ... in the MWC ... and his team lost six games. So, not for nothing, but it's not like he was some nube tossed to the lions; the opposition wasn't like he was playing in the SEC and he had by even your account a superior supporting cast. He had starting collegiate experience at a lower level and it's not like he didn't know the offense. It didn't result in really great season and really just ordinary statistics. '17 he had no talent around him. OK. Fine. But what I did not hear Metz saying and I certainly didn't see was Josh Allen improving his game. I think that's a universal opinion among people that know a lot more than any of us. Part of being a QB is knowing to take what the defense is giving you, and part of it is making the read and knowing when and where the blitz is coming from and adapting. What I saw in admittedly limited viewing, and it's clear it's different than Metz, is a guy that wasn't making that read, that was in a constant hero mode. Yeah, he had crappy teammates. I heard that already; so you don't try and jam the ball 60 yards downfield and emulate Brett Favre. Maybe you just drop it off to the guy on the hot read and live to play another down. Hey, the original poster got to see him live; none of use can say that and I think it's fair to say that the Buffalo scouts probably saw fewer live games of Josh Allen that Metz did. So thanks for sharing. It was definitely a good take and a good read.