RocCityRoller

OBD had to finally spend on a 'premium' guy since they have failed everywhere else. The best success of McBeane at DL was Addison at 7 sacks a year. When I pointed that out previously many disagreed. At least Addison led the team in sacks while he was here. Too bad QBs and RBs ran through his weak arm tackles too often. Von Miller is 33 this week. Might have 1-2 yrs of potential double digit sacks left. I know most top pass rushers in FA this year were older (Jones/ Miller) or were question marks to availability (Mack/ Z Smith). Keep in mind Buffalo has spent 2 x 1st and 2x 2nd round picks on DL the past 3 years. 0 legitimate hits. 0, on top of all the FA DL spending. The simple fact is that OBD has failed to produce a balanced and cost effective DL. That has hurt spending and draft picks elsewhere, like OL/ DB and WR. Safety is going to be an issue in the near future too.

That is how I feel about our DL TBH. We have become the Jets, looking for early DL gold draft after draft, or the Lions trying to draft WR. But not only do we miss in drafts, we also miss in FA. Lots of $$$ spent on subpar DL.

Jordan Poyer is 30 and a UFA after this year Mich Hyde is 31 and is a FA after 2023 (void years now go out until 2026!) May be wise to find a cheap and productive player to groom with these S

I like this pick up. Crowder is a sneaky good WR. Hope he stays healthy. Will push McKenzie for the slot. If he loses to McKenzie he is a solid 4th and an upgrade from Kumerow.

it did, but because of prior DL FA misadventures and failures in the draft. IMO at some point that blind spot needs a different set of eyes or coaching to fix it. Spending so much FA money on DL and premium (1st an 2nd round) draft picks on the same unit, over and over again, may point to an organizational weakness.

Well I can tell you I would rather see Bates than Ford as a starting OG blocking for JA. I can tell you he was a starting OG in one of the most explosive offenses I've witnessed in 35 years of watching NFL football. Watch Singletary's performance versus the Pats playoff game against a solid defense. Singletary's first TD was between G/T, and it was Bates who stacked his man up. On the second Singletary TD, McKenzie was in motion to block, and Bates pulled from LG to the point of attack. It was a classic Alabama pulling play. It was Bates who executed the pull play and helped free Singletary for a @20 yd TD run. Those pulling plays were not executed or even tried with Feliciano/Boettger/Ford. I think we agree IOL has been sorely overlooked in this $170 million dollar FA shopping spree. If anything, after Von Miller I am looking for OL/ CB help the most. Both of those positions were once again neglected for help on the DL. I hope Buffalo has enough OL to keep JA healthy, and our backs running. Even with Bates I would want more OL investment. If he does leave it looks bad.

I personally don't want my $250 million QB behind Cody Ford or a low draft pick at RG. Call me silly if you must. I agree not a first rounder (should be CB/WR etc), but a solid pick. Then again we saw a 2nd round pick in Ford, and a 5th in Teller.... I'm not sure how I feel about McBene and their talent evaluation/ coaching on OL/DL TBH. Based on what I saw in Chicago, they can use all the OL help they can get, much like New England, even with their recent additions.

You are right. It is $10.8M for Oliver by May 2nd

I see it as a zero sum game with a hard cap, since Buffalo is right against the cap, even with cuts and restructures. Buffalo could have put a 2nd round tender on Bates for $3.9 million. (They chose a $2.4M ROFR instead) If Buffalo spent the extra $1.5M to put a second round tender on Bates and another team offered Bates more than $3.9M, and Buffalo refused to/ could not match then Buffalo would get that teams 2nd round pick. Let's say a team thinks Bates is worth 2/$8M. On the current Right of First Refusal (ROFR), Buffalo has to match in 10 days. If they don't/or can't Bates goes elsewhere and Buffalo gets nothing. With a 2nd round tender ($1.5M more) if a team offers Bates 2/$8M and Buffalo refuses, Buffalo gets that team's 2nd rounder. It keeps teams from offering Bates 2/$8M because of the pick loss. Instead Buffalo cheaped out and played Russian Roulette with a $2.4 million ROFR offer. If a team offers Bates more than $2.4M in yr one Buffalo can match it or lose Bates with 0 compensation. Instead of signing Howard to a $3.5 million dollar contract, they could have spent $1.5 million of that money to all but assure Bates stayed put or at least got a 2nd round pick if Bates signed elsewhere, and been $2M better off against the cap. One can find a decent TE 2 in rounds 3-5 of the draft. Keeping a strong OL in front of my franchise seems more important to me than taking a risk on a banged up TE2, and the Bills would be in a better cap situation. Even if Bates returns, they need to find another $2.4M under the cap now since they signed Howard for $3.5M Buffalo is at the point every $1M counts, and wasting $3.5M on Howard is silly, when $1.5M more could have secured a starting OG, or netted a 2nd instead and saved $2M against the cap. That's how I see it. Other people disagree.

Great info on Achilles injuries. I did note that the last good medical journal I had access to so far ended in 2016. As I stated at least 30% of players are out of the NFL after their second year after an Achilles tear, nothing posted above disproves that. I believe Bates is a top 30-40 OG in the NFL. There are 64, he is in or near the top half IMO. You asked: "The cap is fluid, but Minnesota currently has <$2M of cap space. Question: do you believe Bates is the type of player you rearrange your cap and kick the can down the road for, to create a "poison pill" contract?" Let's be honest, you are kind of mixing up Minnesota's cap situation with Buffalo's strategy in that question. I believe signing a proven guard, and backup center for $3.9 million to protect JA is worth it. Maybe you don't. The Guard play I saw from games and reviewed in videos at the end of the season (see videos) from Bates is worth $3.98 million if unmatched. The net difference between the ROFR tender the Bills placed, and a 'poison pill' for a second round tender was only $1.5 million. Penny wise, pound foolish. This was a strategic miss. Let's look at Minnesota offering Bates a 3 yr/$15M contract (not a crazy amount) ROFR (Tendered by Buffalo): If I am Minnesota, do I make cap arrangements to offer Bates 3yrs/ $15 million and no draft pick penalty for doing so? Heck 2/$8M might do the trick. Yes I do. Easy question. Force Buffalo to make another cut or restructure to keep him. Buffalo already cut/ restructured for Von Miller and others. They even dumped Beasley already. Who would be next? 2nd Round Tender: (1.5 million more, the path I would have preferred) If I am Minnesota, do I make cap arrangements to offer Bates 2ys/$8M or 3yrs/ $15 million and have to give up my second round pick? No I probably do not. The cost of having to give up my 2nd round pick to Buffalo (46th pick in Minnesota's case), on top of the contract will heavily dissuade me from that signing even if the money is right. Minnesota may even want to offer Bates 3yrs/18M or 4yr/20M, but that 46th pick may be worth more than the cap adjustments and risk. That is the poison pill. It is worth $1.5 million IMO. Let's say in this situation, Minnesota does offer 2/$8M, 3/$15M or 4/$20M and the 2nd. Buffalo can not match, but at least they receive Minnesota's pick #46 to offset the loss. One can find some really good IOL around there. Creed Humphrey went later than that. In that case pair a 2nd and 1st and move up for a stud CB and still have a 2nd for a WR or OG/C. The options are endless. As for Buffalo, there is no need to 'rearrange your cap' by having the $3.98M 2nd round tender in place instead of the ROFR. Buffalo already put a $2.43 million tender on Bates. It is a $1.53 million dollar net difference, not 3.98 Million. If Buffalo could find an additional $3.5 million to sign McKissic or Howard on top of the $2.43 million ROFR tender to Bates, how could it not find the $1.5 million to offer a second round tender in the first place? That makes no sense. They found $3.5 million more already. 1.53 < 3.5 and you either keep a starter on OL or get a second rounder. In that case, Buffalo misses out on McKissic or Howard, oh well. I feel like the Howard signing was nothing more than an ego recovery move after McKissic duped OBD and resigned with Washington. Protecting my franchise QB for 480k more is more important to me than protecting my ego. I bet I can name 2 TEs in rounds 3-5 that will match or outproduce Howard next year and the year after. 14-135-1 is not that hard to beat. He will be lucky to get 30-300-2 next year. Bank it. I would rather protect my $250 million QB with a known starting OG (and backup C) than pay a TE2 almost the same money and 'hope' he beats the Achilles odds. Seems worth the 2nd round tender to me. But what do I know? Maybe we roll into 2022 with Ford at RG and Saffold at LG... But hey we got OJ Howard.

It's not just a change of scenery. He has a busted Achilles. That doesn't change whether he is in TB, Buffalo, Berlin or Madrid. His best year prior to injury was on par with Clay in his best year here. You would honestly rather spend 3.5 million on Howard than putting in a poison pill contract with Bates ($3.9 million)?? Really?

Let's be honest. Lawson and Phillips signed silly contracts elsewhere when due. Good for them getting the $$$. It wasn't here. If I recall correctly that year Buffalo signed Addison, Butler, Jefferson to replace them. This board was so happy. I can't recall if Star and/or Murphy was the same year or not, but honestly, how much better was Buffalo with those signings and all that tied up FA money than with Lawson and Phillips? Addison was a success by sack numbers, but how many times did we see QBs and RBs run through his tackles? Jefferson was a non-positional bust Butler showed flashes here and there but never held down any position Star is a solid 1TDT when healthy and motivated (almost never), and we are still stuck with that contract Murphy was not an answer to any question. That is a lot of money spent to not improve off of Lawson and Phillips. With Lawson you have a run stopping DE who can generate 4 sacks (Time in Buffalo - Mean 4.1, median 4, mode 4), that is handy vs TN/ INDY/ SF With Phillips you have a definitive 3T guy. When motivated he is a mess to deal with. He was never more motivated than in Buffalo. Both guys love the team and have defined roles, something Jefferson and Butler never had. Happy to have both back TBH. Just wish other positions were addressed. Signing Miller, Jones, Settle, Lawson, Phillips is a hell of an indictment of prior DL FA spending, and 4 premium draft picks in the last 3 drafts on DL. Buffalo lacks in identifying and developing DL play. It should be obvious now. I hope Miller can point out a few things. The DC was a Safety on the 85 Bears, and McDermott was a S in college. Frazier and McDermott can make chicken salad out of chicken sh!t in the secondary. (Wallace UDFA and 7th round Dane Jackson being CB#1 and #2). They suck at the front 6/7. This is why IMO Buffalo plays a Nickel base. It is what our coaches are good at. The continued attention to DL is coming at the deficit of OL, WR and other positions. I hope this is the right mix and that the draft is spent fixing OL, DB and WR.

This is my favorite FA period signing. A young guy, productive, healthy, stuck behind a stud DL. Pushes Ed Oliver before a 5th yr option decision has to be made 2 yrs provides insurance in case Oliver does not produce, and the 5th year option is waived This is a smart DL FA move and signing. I love everything about it. Welcome to Buffalo.

He was beat out by a UDFA and a guy who was out of football for a year, because he was mediocre before his injury. His best year was 34-565-5, his very best year in his 2nd year as an uncontested 1st round pick. That is Charles Clay like production before an Achilles tear. Most NFL players with an Achilles never rebound. It is a career killer injury in the NFL (feel sorry for Ike Boettger). It's not a matter of zoning in or working harder. It's a loss of power, quickness and speed. As it was OJ Howard had difficulty separating, and had questionable hands. He has never been the inline blocker Gronk is, much less his hands. Even Cameron Brate, a UDFA has surpassed him in both regards. I would have rather spent the money on a 'poison pill' 2nd round tender on Bates,and take a swing on a mid round TE like Charlie Kolar in the draft. That is just my opinion. I hope Minnesota messes up and doesn't create a contract that is difficult to match. We did this with Clay.....

Happy Shaq is back in general. Not his fault that he was drafted in the 1st, and then got overpaid by Miami. Good for him actually. He is an excellent run defending DE and has enough juice to get about 4 sacks a year and push the pocket. 4 sacks would have tied as 2nd most sacks on Buffalo last year with Rousseau and Oliver. Buffalo had issues against the Tennessee's and Indy' of the AFC. Shaq allows a nickel to be played as a base, and play better run defense. I feel that way about adding Jones, Settle and Miller too. Welcome back!

I'm happy he is back overall. Not sure of the 5 DL signings while the CB position is in flux, OL may be an issue, and the WR room is weaker than it was at the end of the season. That is a lot of holes to fill in the draft to focus once again, on the DL. That said I have always been a fan of Phillips. Never understood the angst from the board. BUF picked him up off waivers. It's not like the Bills spent some high draft pick or a lot of FA money for him. Getting 9.5 sacks from a low cost waiver acquisition is a win. I am happy BUF did not pay him big money, but it's not exactly like Jefferson or Butler blew away his performance. Happy he is back to complete.

What do you think of Charlie Kolar who could be 4-5th round target?

Agreed. Maybe wrong thread, but Dane Jackson did acquit himself well, and if all of this DL spending (again) doesn't improve the pass rush, then there are bigger issues. The problem is there is 0 guarantee Tre White is ready opening day, or that he immediately returns as Tre White. If Tre misses time, who is the other day 1 starting corner? Who is depth? CB is a huge area of need now for a team with Super Bowl aspirations, and may be relying on journeymen or rookies.

Buffalo put a $2,433,000 tender on him for right of refusal. A second round tender this year was only $3,986,000 A starting level OG who played like Bates did, pulls like Bates and energized the run game (see the videos I posted) and is the backup C is worth $3.9 million to me. Far more valuable than a busted up TE#2 making $3.5 million, and making a potential roster hole on the OL. If Minnesota offers anything more than $2.43 million in year one of a contract Buffalo can match. If Buffalo does not want to/ can not match in 10 days he goes to Minnesota and Buffalo gets nothing but Cody Ford starting at OG, or another hole to fill in the draft. I guess the difference is whether the Bills FO (or the fans on this board for discourse) think Bates is a starter or not. I do and a handful of others do. Additionally it will depend on what Minnesota thinks. The man more than held his own in the playoffs on an offense that turned in two of the all time great offensive performances. I'd rather spend $3.9 million on the 2nd round tender, and have a full season to evaluate him full time. If Minnesota or another team wants to show him starter money, and Buffalo can not match, at least OBD has Minnesota's 2nd to backfill the position. Putting the 2nd on a guy deters a lot of teams from considering making him an offer in the first place. The second round tender makes other teams consider if a guy is worth the contract and a 2nd rounder.

Howard's best season was very Charles Clay like 34-565-5. That was his 2nd season and before injury. As good as medical advancements have been on ACL/ MCL/ PCL (Knee injuries) the recovery rate in the NFL is abysmal for Achilles tears. It seems that we disagree that 1) Ryan Bates is a starting level OG worth $3.9 million, and that 2) OJ Howard is washed up ($3.5 million)

I sure would. Better than nothing. $3.9 million is not breaking the bank. They spent that on a washed up TE#2.

Yeah, it's mind numbing how Buffalo didn't put a 2nd round tag on Bates. The cost was $3.9 million for that tag. With the money offered J. D. McKissic/ Howard they could have locked up a 27 yr old G who helped spring Buffalo's offense late last year. Once Buffalo moved on from the Feliciano/ Boettger/ Ford experiment the run game improved, and Buffalo exploded in the playoffs. Bates can pull better than any of the three he replaced, and adds C backup ability with Morse having his injury history. With Feliciano gone, and if Bates moves on not only is a 2nd starting OG needed, but a backup C becomes a need. Singetary TD up the middle behind Bates and Dawkins in Playoffs vs Pats One of the best executed runs of 2021. McKenzie motions left and Bates 71 pulls left and seal the backside blocking. Those who enjoy excellent blocking scheme and execution should enjoy dissecting this play. Pulling concepts like this only worked once Bates was put in at LG and Singletary benefited. So a broken down and underwhelming TE2 was worth the same money as #71? If Bates signs with Minnesota, that leaves Cody Ford and Rodger Saffold (better run blocker) to protect our $250 million dollar man. Seems penny wise and pound foolish to me.

Good point about only having 4 games with Brady. That said Howard lost his job to a UDFA (Brate) and a guy who was out of football for a season. His best seasons are very Charles Clay like from a production perspective. That was before he tore his Achilles. I looked up a bunch of sports medicine journals, the last study went to about 2016. A full 1/3 of NFL players with torn Achilles are out of the league within 2 years. Most others are middling players after. Cam Akers (RB/ Rams) is really exceptional in how he came back. The best I would expect from Howard is a Lee type guy, but inline blocking was never his strength. Given that Bates could have been given a 2nd round tender for 3.9 million, and Howard is 3.5 (up to 5 with incentives) it seems like money poorly spent in a tight cap situation. A TE prospect like Charlie Kolar should be avaailable rounds 3-5 and would have been cheaper and offer more IMO.

Or OJ Howard etc etc....

Cool, seems like a lot of cash, but will depend on the numbers and built in escape clauses as Von Miller ages. Happy they moved on from Jerry and Mario. Will want to compare contracts for Jones/ Von Miller and Z Smith for the first 3-4 yrs.