ngbills

Thank you titans. I can now enjoy this game. Three drinks in. Go billls.

Buffalo 1 million - Dolphins zero

Finish them Titans finish them

Tomlin coaching scared on O.

Balt does not want to be there at all.

He is actually in the middle to bottom in nearly all metrics. That is the difference. Not that he is not the best yet. He is being used in the most conservative way possible and has way less flash or impactful plays than other teams TE's. You said, truth is he is a promising rookie - I am on board with that. I am not on board with the he is already elite talk. There is a ton of pushing on how amazing of a season he had and I just feel there are many players that given the opportunity could replicate his numbers. Not his fault that the Bills made him a safety valve and he did what many would do with that role. If he was turning all those dump offs into 50 yards then we should be talking about how elite he is.

We gave Knox the same contract as Njoku the same offseason...then we drafted Kincaid in the first.

To the "compare only rookie stats" comments Here is my issue with that mindset. Much of the rookie stats are influenced by opportunity not ability. Look at a guy like Devin Singletary. He rushed for ~800 yards and 5+ yards per carry. Does that mean he was that good or just that he was good enough AND given the chance to play. Could those same carries have very similar results with a ton of other RB's? His stats have not changed much since then so I say opportunity. A more extreme Bills example is Robert Foster and his 500 yard season as a rookie - ability or opportunity? Was it because he is amazing or the ball has to be caught by somebody? What has he done since? Hence I vote for opportunity. That is how I see Kincaid at this point. His stats are primarily opportunity not amazing play. Looking solely at the basic stats can be misleading. He is a 1st round-pick talent so obviously can play. But I think his record-breaking stats are more that the Bills fed him the ball and as the advanced data suggests much of it was easy stuff and he did not add a ton of extra to that (depth of targets, yards after catch, 1st downs, touchdowns). IMO you dont draft a TE in round 1 to use him that way so hopefully we see more in the future. I will say it again, he needs to be catching passes down the field not dump-offs. There are better guys to have the ball on short passes like Cook who can make guys miss or even Knox who can run a guy over.

I have accepted that the playoffs are pointless if the Bills can't win this Sunday. So I expect a victory and playoff success, anything less is a failed season. They lose on Sunday I want a restructure of the coaching staff and some major roster changes.

This is likely going to ruffle some feathers around here. Every year there are guys stats that overstate their performance. I think that is year it is Kincaid. This is less about his ability and more how he was used most of the season. This past game we finally saw him going downfield where he should be. He is not Cole Beasley who will catch and pass and quickly turn up field for the extra yards squeezing through guys, he is not a monster TE that will catch a pass and run guys over for 5 yards. Yet he was primarily used in that capacity racking up easy catches but limited yards or impact. Below are some comps from the other starting TE's around the league. Yards per rec Kincaid 8.9 Kittle 15.7 tops amongst TE's Most starters are in the 10-11 range TD Kincaid 2 LaPorta is top at 9 Many others have 5-6. Kincaid at the low end with 2 1st Downs Kincaid 26 Kelce 51 tops amongst TE's Most with similar rec numbers are in the 30's and 40's. Kincaid is low end. Average Depth of Target Kincaid 5.8 yards Pitts is tops at 11.4 yards; Kittle is at 9.4 yards Most are in the 6-7 range, though some in the 5's with Kincaid at the low end. Yards after Catch Kincaid 4.3 yards Kittle and Njoku at 7.4 yards are tops Many are in the 4-6 range with Kincaid at the low end. Broken Tackles Kincaid 3 McBride is at 10 and Njoku and LaPorta are at 9 Many other from 2-7 range. Kincaid at low end. This is not a Kincaid sucks post. This is a they are confused in how to use him post and lets not celebrate his # of rec's stats. He is not a throw it to and watch him run over or around guys like he is being used. He is a tall lanky TE that should be going down the same and catching contested passes. Most NFL caliber players could replicate Kincaid catches or they would be out the league. He can and should do more and I want to see that from him...like we saw some of last week. I am happy he broke some reception records blah blah, but lest see them cut him loose.

I think there is always wishful thinking around here. The guy we have is always better than the one we don’t. The coach we have is better than the last etc. the second they are gone they are terrible or not worth it. I think it just makes people feel better than wondering. It can be scary to question things for some. So in this case it’s if Brady is not the guy what if it’s someone worse?

How many other teams highlights on O look to be good schemes (guys wide open, easy runs, etc) vs the Bills? My not watching every NFL game brain feels like I see many other teams scoring wide open TD's or huge plays with guys wide open vs. my Bills highlights being contested catches and Allen Superman plays.

Got to see who is available but no issue taking two early. It is the premium position we need the most help.

These same coaches benched Tyrod for Peterman in a playoff race. I would not give them too much credit. They are very lucky that Allen has a beast mentality because they have not been the brightest and would argue not helped Allen (that was Daboll, not McD).

So the Bills were 13-3 last year. They were 2nd in the league in yards, points, and 1st downs. They came out this year and scored 38, 37, and 48 in 3 of the first 4 games this year. They struggled and the OC got fired. The new OC has some good games to start (with a lower bar) and has now also struggled. Yet many want to crown Brady not only better than Dorsey but good enough to give him the job. I don't get it. If Dorsey did enough to get fired then Brady has not done nearly enough to get the job. Hire outside of the building. Bring in a new QB coach.

Thinking Ravens. But a ton of options. MIA could be at play if Mostert out longer. KC with Pacheco banged up. SF and CMC. Moss been hurt in IND. Plenty of more.

Oh the DEN, PHI, NE, NYJ games...2 seed should be a lock.

Short-term memories. I was a huge critic of Dorsey and wanted them to move on from him. But before you jump to all these Brady is so much better take a look at Dorsey's numbers last year. I do not see how you can say Brady is that much better unless you look at only Dorsey's worst games compared to Brady's best. The Bills O is down this year and it is more than Dorsey sucks, Brady is better. I would not want either to be the OC next year. They need to bring in a fresh look and someone that can revitalize this O. They have gotten stale and predictable. New OC and new WR's will do wonders. Josh may need a new QB coach - he has admitted his technique is off and that is a part of it.

Are we stopping BAL from scoring? Are we stopping KC if they get their act together? Heck HOU and CLE can put up points. I don’t have much confidence a run first attack could keep up. The passing game will be required in the playoffs. Could be wrong and we return to the old days, but playoff football is a different beast.

Maybe on the same issues just with a different tilt. They still lack rhythm and sustained drives. Brady has benefited from a D that has generated turnovers at a high rate - 13 in the past 6 weeks. They only had 2 in Dorsey’s final 5 weeks. That is huge.

Got to win in mia to control our own destiny. Otherwise will take a lot of luck.

10 win team will be missing the playoffs. Hope it’s not us. I see HOU beating IND, Jax beating TEN, PIT beating BAL subs. We need to win.

Looking like next week may be do or die.

That will be the day…

McD prefers his d in the field. Said he wants more turnovers.