RochesterRob
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3 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:
And Carolina wrote a big check for Cam, while they both were there.
I know all three QBs were already on the team, and that made less risky than a free agent, but the point is that if those teams are McBeane's models, all three have spent big bucks on QBs. (By the way, as a complete aside, I believe Kraft and Brady have a handshake deal that Brady is going to get paid some big dollars after he retires, doing public appearances or bein a consultant or something. Wait and see.) So I'm not going to be surprised if they write a big check for a free agent. They know what QBs cost.
As for Taylor, I hear you, but I don't think the total dollars are what matter. It's the 2018 cap hit. 2019 they can afford the hit.
I'm betting the Bills will be serious contenders for Cousins, or maybe Bridgewater or possibly Bradford. I don't think they'll have any interest in trading up, and I don't think they'll like the uncertainty of pinning the next two or three years on an unproven rookie taken in the first or second round, along with a guy who is placeholder. I think McBeane are actively building, and they'll want their QB of the future on board in 2018 if they can get him So I'm expecting they'll write a big check to someone.
Yes, I think the guys that evaluate talent for a living versus us keyboard GM's probably look at the top 4 prospects at not quite being a sure thing such as Peyton Manning was. Guys here that want us to burn three number 1's plus... will be the same guys brandishing torches and pitchforks in three years if "the chosen one" does not pan out.
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21 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:
Shaw....with all due respect I think we'd get general consensus on what a 'crazy buyer' would look like. Especially for a franchise that just got done using two first round picks on a WR who is no longer on the team. I simply cannot see the current leadership giving up their two first rounds picks, and as some have said, one of their seconds, or next years first, for EITHER a free agent or rookie. I just don't think that's in their DNA right now.
Agreed. If the Chief's for Smith want much more than a mid-round pick this year and as much next year the Bills will walk away. I still think our guys will place Bradford under an electron microscope (if it were possible) to know that Bradford was an option.
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7 hours ago, Wayne Arnold said:
The more I analyze this Buffalo Bills offseason, the more I think our 2018 starting QB could come down to either Alex Smith or Sam Bradford.
When it comes to the Draft, the Bills are in a tough spot at picks 21/22. Teams are going to want a king's ransom in order to move up to the Top 10 (much less Top 5).
I also see this QB class as being way more flawed than people choose to believe. Each prospect has his own warts. There might be a star in this class, but no one knows who it is. It might be the 1st rated QB in the class, or it might be the 5th rated. It's a total crap shoot.
So what is the Bills' best option for 2018 (and beyond)? It might be one of the veteran QB's that will be available.
Kirk Cousins: As much as I would love it to happen, I don't see Kirk Cousins being realistic for us considering the lack of cap space we have and the competition for his services.
Teddy Bridgewater: This guy is a total question mark due to his knee. I'm guessing that he'll stay with the Vikings on a prove-you-can-still-play one-year contract extension.
Case Keenum: I think the Vikings give him a solid contract extension.
The rest are trash.
That leaves Sam Bradford (Free Agent) and Alex Smith (under contract with the Chiefs)
Sam Bradford Upside:
- Despite having nearly a decade of experience as a starting NFL QB in this league, Bradford will still only be 30 years old when the 2018 season begins
- Won't have to give up any draft picks for him
- Considering his injury history, he may be good value if we can get him at a price lower than expected
- Career at an upward trajectory - had a career year in 2016 and played at a very high level in his two starts in 2017
- Played under Josh McDaniels in 2011, so may be already acclimated to many of Brain Daboll's concepts
Sam Bradford Downside:
- Has been plagued by injuries for much of his career. Can he get and stay healthy?
- Risky acquisition. Can we afford him considering all the competition for the services of quarterback out there?
Alex Smith Upside:
- Coming off the best season of his career
- Competitive guy, underdog 'me-against-the-world' mentality could fit in well in Buffalo
Alex Smith Downside:
- Must give up draft picks to get him
- Only one year left on his deal - is he worth it?
- Can he perform at such a high level without Andy Reid?
- Some describe him as Tyrod Taylor without the wheels - doesn't read the field quickly and hesitates to throw to WR who aren't wide open
- Turns 35 years old this May - how much does he have left?
Thoughts?
Assuming Bradford checks out on the physical I would be OK on bringing him in. It's far from certain that the Chief's will make Smith available and the cost might be steep (first rounder plus.....).
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13 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:
I seriously doubt the Bills are even thinking about Cousins due to the enormous amount of money he will command. Shoot, you might as well go for Garoppolo or Drew Brees. Even Keenum is going to need a truck to haul his money after this year.
I'm thinking more along the lines of AJ McCarron (providing he is a FA), Teddy Bridgewater or Sam Bradford. Perhaps Alex Smith as a bridge for now.
I think that we will kick the tires on McCarron and Bradford and then some.
42 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:If you already own a high draft pick, you're rebuilding, and it's a quality QB draft, the best strategy overall for the team is to draft your QB and sign a sturdy older vet to backstop and mentor him. If Cleveland owns 2 picks in the top 4 of the draft and doesn't draft a QB, they're nuts. Oh, wait....it IS Cleveland
Washington is not going to get into a bidding war for Cousins unless they're the ones opening the bids. It's all about the tag. If they franchise him, they either intend to be the only bidder this year for his long term-contract, or they intend to do what it takes to sign him. If they transition tag him, they want a chance to put in the final word, but they have to know teams will do their best to structure the contract so they can't answer.
I don't hear Minnesota mentioned as a home for Cousins, but I don't know why. All their QB are FA. They made it to the Championship game and arguably flamed out due to QB play that was not quite quite. They have a stout defense. Cousins is a better QB than any of their 3, and if they sign him, they could arguably compete for years. And if I'm Cousins, they're very attractive to me. They have good WR and a good run game, decent OL. He wants to win - Check.
I think Cleveland goes after Darnold as well as Barkley. The fourth pick makes a pretty good jumping point along with their other picks to make that realistic.
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3 hours ago, Capco said:
What are the relevant dates to keep in mind when considering the Bills QB of 2018?
When do certain decisions need to be made?
When are certain decisions "expected" to be made?
How long until the speculation ends and answers start coming in?
Relevant dates have now been covered but I honestly believe our GM & HC are operating from the standpoint of minimal expense in terms of payout and draft compensation. It's been mentioned that the portion that any team is responsible for concerning Alex Smith in 2018 is around 17M. That is going to have a definite appeal to us versus 29-30M for even a "process" QB (Cousins) . We can guess for the next several weeks what the Chiefs will do but if I were GM and Smith were the target I would be prepared to offer a third and a mid-rounder for 2019 but see what Reid's asking price is first to know if it is reasonable to expect to make a deal.
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Just now, MAJBobby said:
He was the solution IMO to fix Dareus
Nothing in WNY was going to fix Dareus. Dareus is one of those guys that responds to winning in that he does not want to be seen as the weakest link in a playoff caliber season. Which is to say Dareus is probably at a mental crossroad in Jacksonville at this point. His stats in Jacksonville are not at expectations I would imagine for at least Coughlin and Marrone. Does he come to camp this summer with the attitude that he will greatly improve his effort or does he hope that he can skate by because in terms of contract he is "too big to fail?" My money is on that he is going test Marrone in giving as minimal effort as he can get away with. The guy is not necessarily lazy but he at least got top 5 money on his rookie deal and then one big payday so for him what is the incentive to go full bore?
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2 minutes ago, Wayne Cubed said:
Business as usual in the NFL. Coaches come and go just like players.
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9 minutes ago, Doc said:
On the flip side, you can't dole out $13M/year to guys like Gilmore and expect to remain competitive. You have to know which players to let walk and yes, replace them in the draft or FA.
They extended him prior to knowing about any injury. That's just bad luck. And we'll see where this shakes out. Again I doubt he sees both the $4.3M remaining in unamortized SB and the $4.8M salary guarantee for 2018.
Just my opinion but you can't have more than 6 guys under large contracts for your starting 22 never mind big deals for QB's, CB's, C (the elites bring huge money), and DL for instance. This all points to needing to pull out more players from the draft which Pegula has addressed by expanding scouting dept resources. Every position at some point should realistically be expected to work off of a rookie contract including QB. Obviously, unusual circumstances arise but having a 2 or 3 year plan to address most positions on a team is vital. In regards to QB for the Bills I have no problem with a FA QB for this year along with a high end developmental prospect but within 3 years I would like to see a young draftee starting on a rookie deal.
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2 minutes ago, SoTier said:
I'm not going to argue that the Bills didn't/don't need an upgrade at center because I agree that they have needed that for a while. I have been arguing since last summer that the interior of the Bills OL needs upgrading and/or better depth because of age and talent level not to mention how frequently OLers get hurt, as Glenn has shown.
That Wood was never as good a center as Glenn was a left tackle doesn't mean he wasn't worth extending. There may have not been any better options either on the team or available on the FA market. His deal might very well be the going rate for a starting NFL.
My argument is simply that complaining that Wood's contract was "bad" because of his injury is nothing more than hindsight.
While Wood may or may not have been a top 10 center he was just about always in the top 12. At that point how much effort do you put in chasing down a replacement when you have at a minimum a half dozen other problem areas including RT? As league GM's point out good centers are hard to come by and it's not unusual for a draft not to have anything more than backup up quality or swing guys who can play center. Look at how Atlanta improved when they wrestled away Alex Mack from Cleveland. Some could rightfully argue Mack never planned on going back to the Browns but he was a very valuable free agent to Atlanta and other teams nonetheless.
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51 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said:
Reimer, who is in his mid-20s and sometimes appears on the "Kirk & Callahan Show," called Brady's daughter "an annoying little pissant."
Kirk Minihane, one of the hosts of the show, said on the air Monday that Reimer had been suspended for the entire Super Bowl week.
"I've tried to come on this show for many years and showed you guys a lot of respect," Brady said. "I've always tried and come on and do a good job for you guys. It's very disappointing when you hear [the comments about my daughter], certainly. My daughter, or any child, certainly don't deserve that."
I agree with everybody else in that leave the kids out of it.
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10 minutes ago, Batman1876 said:
The team knew they would be dealing with a lot of dead cap space in 2018 and that there would be a lot of new players in 2017. As a result keeping a pillar around, who was also a good player was important. Wood's hit was mostly going to come into play in 2018 and for 2019 he could be cut with minor cap implications. Until the injury those factors make his extension a logical choice, turn over the roster now with a few leaders kept around for continuity and work towards a wide open cap in 2019 when the previous regime's choices are done hurting us.
18 minutes ago, Doc said:Just for some perspective, Wood was going into the final year of his contract this past season and was scheduled to have a $4.125M base salary. The Bills figured they could lower the cap number for 2017 and extend him for a couple more years, figuring they could get out of the deal after the 2108 season.
I agree with both statements. I think sometimes peoples' memories are short on matters such as the Wood extension.
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45 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:
You're right, because when they signed Ninkovich to an extension in 2016, he was in his 11th year, not his 9th like Wood.
Signed the extension in 2016, in Feb. extending through the 2017 season and then retired in July before the season, costing them a bunch of dead money.
It's not a mistake. It's a cost of playing the game. And the Pats do it same as everyone else. They've ended up with dead money from Jerod Mayo (re-structured him in April 2015 and cut him in Feb. 2016) , from Scott Chandler, and it would be easy to go on and on with guys like Revis, Mankins and Kyle Arrington who cost them $12.5 mill in dead money in one year between them.
Ouch. Hang in there, and good luck.
So far, the Gillislee contract hasn't proved a good one for them, but it wasn't $30 mill. $6.4 mill over 2 years. Was that a typo? Did you mean $3+ mill per year?
In any case, hasn't worked out for them.
Winning can cover up a lot of sins where the Pats are concerned. Had things unfolded differently when Brady was drafted and that he went to a different team the Pats of the past 15 plus years would most likely look entirely different. Far fewer AFC titles and Super Bowls.
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2 minutes ago, John from Hemet said:
At the time Wood was given the contract extension I didnt understand it
- He was getting older
- Groy has shown that he can be inserted and the team not have a drop off in production
but....not all bad contracts are created equal.....the Marcel D. contract was a bad crippling contract......this one really does not hurt us that much
Groy was also brought in as insurance for OG. As I recall it was along the lines of being a pleasant surprise that Groy performed as well as he did when he filled in at center. Dareus was about not letting a Top 5 pick walk without compensation for the team. Even then the best thing the team could have said was don't let the door hit you in the behind as you walk out.
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7 minutes ago, teef said:
these things happen. my brother in law as a pro athlete. he signed a 5 year guaranteed contract, and had to retire this year because of concussion issues, (team still has 3 years left to pay). he had had concussions before this contract was signed, but after this season, he had taken more, and it was determined that he shouldn't play anymore. he felt he could still play, but the team doctors didn't want him to continue. it's life.
i get this team has done a lot wrong, but people try far to hard to be angry about something.
If we knew what was going on in a given team's front office we might be surprised at the risks they knowingly take. And let's not kid ourselves in that a number of times taking a risk is unavoidable. No doubt the Bills took stock of its O-Line situation and that high quality centers do not grow on trees and it is difficult to find one through free agency or the draft so they took a chance on Wood.
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3 minutes ago, Yav said:
Wow, only a Bills fan would spin this into something more.
Dude's career just ended and yet here we are with a thread crying about his contract. SMH.
Yep, hindsight is always 20-20 but to make the right decisions as they come due is an entirely different proposition.
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3 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:
While its certainly possible, I think a lot of people are over looking just how impactful losing Wood is going to be on the Bills plans in regards to trade ups. Beane already is fretting the cost of moving up...but now, we have another hole to fill to go with the many other holes.
In no particular order, we have all these to consider outside just a QB:
- DT - Big need
- LB - Big Need
- DB - Might be a big need if we lose Gaines.
- WR - Need some speed here and guys who can stay healthy
- OL - Need multiple people here to help the line, terrible in pass protection and we also might lose Glenn this year. We honestly might have 4 new starters on the OL next year, and they aren't on the roster right now.
- Pass Rush - One of the worst in the NFL last year, needs a significant upgrade.
Those are a LOT of things we need to address, and yes I fully understand the importance of a QB, but the NFL is a team game and 3 of the last 4 QB's in the playoffs this year were Foles (in the Super Bowl), Bortles, and Keenum. Most would agree all are a heck of lot closer to a backup quality QB than a starter.
I wont be surprised by a trade up, I just think the odds of it went even further down after the Wood situation. And again, not suggesting we don't trade up, but Beane COVETS his draft picks and wants to build his TEAM through the draft...and hard to build a team with that many holes if you trade them all to gamble on a QB. If you're gonna do it, you do it for a QB...but I just don't know Beane will pull the trigger to get one of the big 4 because its most likely gonna be a top 10 pick we have to get to and with all the needy teams, its going to be expensive.
All that being said, FA changes a lot of this here. If we spend smart in FA and say add speed at WR, maybe land Star and some OL help, then I think the odds will go up. But if they are just adding depth and don't land any quality starters, then I just don't see a big trade happening.
I think some how we keep Gaines on a team friendly contract. I don't think that he is in a position for a big day.
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3 minutes ago, Steve Billieve said:
We have plenty of high picks already this year. I don't think I would trade down unless I was getting something for next year.
How many rookies do you really want in 1 year?
I think this would be a good year to take on a number of rookies. I think the expectations for the 2018 season are going to be modest. It was like winning the lottery that the Bills made the playoffs last year and nobody expects that given the the stats that the offensive and defensive units had last year with no super star free agents coming in to bolster things.
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24 minutes ago, stuvian said:
http://billswire.usatoday.com/2018/01/28/full-buffalo-bills-7-round-nfl-mock-draft-1/
as much as I want a saviour QB we are an old team and need to score on most of our picks. I don't want us mortgaging our future. I like the enclosed draft even if it doesn't include a franchise QB. I think a veteran like Smith or Cousins would be enough of an improvement for a deep playoff run
Agreed. There is too much potential gain to be had in this draft. As I said in another thread just a while ago there appears to be a good match of talent to team concerning the Bills. Let's bet the farm when it is not clear what we should do in the second and third rounds. There are very little in the way of big contracts due in 2019 and 2020 never mind who we find this spring so we can flex our cap muscle to a free agent QB this year and next year.
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9 hours ago, SouthNYfan said:
Why would we be trading down?
Your name is "simpleman" yet your post is anything but that.
Seriously though, trade down?
This spring's draft is shaping up so there could be plenty of value in the picks 23 down through 90 for the Bills. A lot of years even the 2nd round pick and down are sketchy in terms of matching players ideal for a given team. Most of the time it is an assessment of the player's measurable's versus fit. Sometimes it even happens in the first round such as it was for us concerning Eric Flowers back in 2000. Anyhow there is a real chance the draft could yield 5 starters or more come opening day this September. On average you hope your first two picks start opening day with your third rounder contributing and fourth rounder a reliever for a starter. If you can have a 1979 or 1987 style draft where you yield multiple starters good things lay ahead even if you have to miss out on one high profile player.
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1 hour ago, Direhard Fan said:
Sure looks like they are pushing the Mayfield want. Might be smoke. Keep what we have and go for five starters in the first five picks.
There is going to be a lot of misdirection by teams between now and the draft. People need to get used to that concept.
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1 hour ago, SouthNYfan said:
Smith has one year left on his deal
Who says he will re-sign if he knows we have a QB in waiting?
He was forced out by kaep
He was forced out by mahomes
I don't think he wants that again
Unless we sign him long term he's not gonna be more than a year
That's why I wouldn't risk not taking a QB if we have a chance at a guy we like
Nate has potential, but I'm not willing to bet the next decade on "Nathan Peterman and maybe Alex Smith will re-sign"
Setting aside the issue of whether Smith is traded or released I feel that Smith being signed for only one more year is of minimal concern. If he ages during the 2018 season then we would only want that commitment versus another long contract to eat. Most QB's are not a freak of nature and cannot plan on playing until they are 40. If true that the 2019 cap numbers suggest we have over 90 million dollars of room then we are in the driver's seat in that if we really want Smith and cannot work something out before 2019 we can tag him. Having said that I think before it gets that far either the Bills will come up with something acceptable for Smith or target another vet QB via free agency or trade.
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On January 25, 2018 at 8:28 AM, NewEraBills said:
Did Beane say they would not do it or did he simply say, "It's a high price to pay", or something along those lines? In any case, I've always advocated that if the move up is small move up, but if it takes a kings ransom, we have way too many holes on the team to do that, IF our goal is to continue to build on the success we had this past season. We'll see what happens.
I could see them move up to pick 16 if somebody was really there that they liked and not burn an additional 1st to do it. I think they want to build a foundation after considering 2017's draft so any additional picks to make a move will come out 2019's choices. Further, baring a meltdown I think McD/Beane have 4 years instead of the traditional 3 so I don't think they have to find their QB this spring meaning FA bridge. Wentz got the Eagles through most of the regular season so unless Foles throws 5TD's a week from today I don't think his price will be too astronomical. I would love to know what Daboll is thinking right now.
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Count me as one of the ones who would not mind a mid-round RB as the Bills Wire mock shows. I worry about McCoy making it through a season. Any prospect would probably have a similar profile to McCoy in terms of capabilities.
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I don't think this will be sorted out until the combine and more prospect interviews are completed. If I had to guess based on reports the Bills are looking at 4 players very seriously at draft slots 25-55.
THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - The GM's QB Decision Tree
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
What is the goal you ask? Honestly for 2018 it is not what most members here will want to hear. Making the playoffs was like hitting on Lotto and for me just posting a winning record would be reasonable given the stats we finished with and the roster changes coming. Setting the foundation this year with the draft along with 2019's prospects will set the table to expect to go at least as far as the divisional round in the playoffs in 2019.