DCOrange

Based solely on the 1 on 1's, I'd rank them like this: Tier 1: Denzel Mims Van Jefferson Tier 2: KJ Hill Michael Pittman Chase Claypool Tier 3: Antonio Gandy-Golden Quartney Davis Tier 4: Jauaun Jennings Devin Devurney James Proche Collin Johnson

I think this also goes back to the difference between being truly accurate versus giving your WRs a chance. For example, Allen was dead last in terms of his accuracy according to PFF, but they also track "on-target %". Here's how Allen fared at each level of the field: BLOS (behind line of scrimmage): 96% vs. 94% NFL average 0-9 yards: 79% vs. 82% 10-19 yards: 70% vs. 63% 20+ yards: 31% vs. 42% The 0-9 yard range is by far the most volume, so his on-target % was ultimately 28th in the league, but considering where he was last year, I think there's reason for optimism there. Compare this to Lamar, whose accuracy % was 21st out of 25 on their chart. But his on-target % was actually above average: 14th out of the 35 that they ranked.

I think ESPN and PFF technically keep track of this but it isn't something they make public to anyone. But it's a factor in ESPN's QBR rating and PFF's EPA metrics.

Sure but that’s one player. They’re ranking thousands of players; of course people will disagree with some rankings.

FWIW, Charlie Campbell is reporting that every team he’s spoken to views Epenesa as a 3-4 DE and an iffy fit in a 4-3 front.

He definitely is not as accurate as most other starting QBs. I do think the mental side of things is a larger issue at this point though. I think he’s accurate enough to be a good QB if he gets the reads and decisions right. Definitely hope to see him improve the deep ball though. I don’t need it to be good or even necessarily average, but it has to be at least a part of his game. This past season it was not.

My personal opinion is that their stats are undeniably helpful and interesting. Their grades are much, much more debatable. And in general, Bills fans seem to think higher of their players than PFF does.

Also for those interested in the game-by-game PFF grades: 2018: Above Average: 4 Average: 3 Below Average: 4 2019: Above Average: 5 Average: 5 Below Average: 6

He still graded as 25th worst in terms of turnover-worthy plays, 28th in terms of on-target %, and 33rd in terms of big time throw % (essentially, deep passes and or tightly contested passes), and despite those improvements in every category of passer rating, he was still below average in all of them outside of 3rd downs and red zone where he was slightly above average. He was also 28th in adjusted completion percentage. His accuracy % of deep balls was roughly 17% and aside from Mason Rudolph, nobody is within 10% of him there. They also have a chart with 4 quadrants where the bottom left = bad accuracy % and bad uncatchable pass %. There are some other QBs in that quadrant, but Allen is the biggest outlier by a wide margin; he's basically in the bottom left corner while the others are pretty close to the center but slightly still in the quadrant. So he basically improved from being arguably the worst passer in a lot of these categories to being below average.

Not sure what the policy is in terms of pasting premium content, so I'm going to hold off on pasting the entire thing, but PFF released their QB Annual Report today with roughly 10 pages of content for each QB. Some of the main takeaways for Allen: His improvement this year as a passer showed up in literally every passer rating category that they track. Passer rating when kept clean improved from 79.8 to 95.2. Passer rating with no blitz improved from 70.1 to 89.6. Passer rating under pressure improved from 47.4 to 60.5. Passer rating when blitzed improved from 62.9 to 78.0. Passer rating on 3rd down improved from 49 to 92.8. Passer rating in the red zone improved from 75.8 to 95.8. Having said that, the improvement did not show up in terms of PFF's Accuracy metrics. Last year, he hit the WR's frame on 53.7% of his passes; that dropped to 53.0% this year. Last year, he threw a catchable ball on 73.5% of his passes; that number didn't move at all this season (though confusingly, they also track "on target %" and they show Allen improving from 64.7% as a rookie to 71.7% this season). There are some improvements to be seen when you break it down by pass distance though. In terms of hitting the WR's frame, Rookie Allen was 3.2% worse than the average QB on passes behind the line of scrimmage, 3.5% worse on 0-9 yard passes, 3.9% worse on 10-19 yard passes, and 8.2% worse on 20+ yard passes. This year's Allen was 2.1% better on passes behind the line of scrimmage, 5.5% worse on 0-9 yard passes, 6.4% better on 10-19 yard passes, and 20.6% worse on 20+ yard passes. So all in all, he was legitimately good on the screens/swings and intermediate passes this year, but was bad on the 0-9 yard passes and ungodly terrible on deep balls. PFF has found that the shorter stuff is generally more stable year over year, whereas the deep ball comes and goes; based on that, they believe Allen's overall gains this year are pretty promising for his future projection. Route distribution was more or less the same as it was a year ago. There wasn't really any movement in terms of which routes Allen threw more of in Year 2 as compared to Year 1. Having said that, the routes seemed to be pulled in shorter this year; 51% of his passes as a rookie were within 9 yards of the line of scrimmage versus 62% this year. That resulted in his average depth of target decreasing from 11.5 yards as a rookie to 9.8 yards this year. In his rookie year, 6.8% of his targeted passes were dropped. This season, that number increased to 7.1%, so that's obviously disappointing. A breakdown of each receiver: John Brown: 2.8% Cole Beasley: 6.3% Dawson Knox: 18.4% Devin Singletary: 13.2% Isaiah McKenzie: 2.9% Edit: Staying away from the PFF Grades that are included since people seem to very much not be fans of their grades lol, but the grades remain mostly very bad, though there was some improvement in areas.

4.55 would probably be damaging, but I think in general with him, it's more about the all-around athleticism than it is pure speed. 4.55 at 220+ lbs is still pretty damn good. I personally don't really like him unless we bring in an established WR to ease the load but I think you can make a good case for him to be the pick despite my concerns.

I know as Buffalo Bills fans, we're trained to hate PFF, BUT draft season often turns into the 10 draft media guys giving us basically identical big boards to one another. PFF and Daniel Jeremiah are two of the few that actually differ from the pack mentality. So with that said, here is PFF's most recent big board: https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2020-nfl-draft-pff-top-100-big-board-update And with so much discussion of the WRs (deservedly so), here's the WR's rankings on the big board (physical measurements based on The Athletic, which Dane Brugler has said is based on what NFL teams expect): 5. CeeDee Lamb - 6'1", 192, 4.48 6. Jerry Jeudy - 6'1", 195, 4.50 15. Laviska Shenault - 6'2", 224, 4.55 20. Henry Ruggs - 5'11, 192, 4.32 23. Tee Higgins - 6'3", 205, 4.47 28. Jalen Reagor - 5'10", 196, 4.46 31. Brandon Aiyuk - 6'0", 203, 4.45 37. Denzel Mims - 6'3", 206 39. Michael Pittman - 6'4", 223, 4.55 40. Jauaun Jennings 44. Tyler Johnson 68. Justin Jefferson - 6'3", 192, 4.53 80. KJ Hill - 6'0", 192, 4.55ish 82. KJ Hamler - 5'9", 174, 4.44 92. John Hightower - 6'2", 184, 4.41 99. Van Jefferson - 6'2", 197

To the first question, it's an insanely deep WR class. This means that (1) WRs could slide as there won't be a rush to grab one immediately and or (2) he can be a very good prospect while still only being like the #5 or worse WR in the class. To the second, Against press coverage, he basically just tries to use his speed to run around the DB on the outside. It worked in college, but I think he's average in terms of speed at the next level, so he'll need to learn other techniques if he wants to play as an X WR. He doesn't sell his routes or separate very well on his cuts. In the games I watched, he looked allergic to blocking (though Astro specifically says blocking is one of Shenault's strengths so maybe I just caught the wrong games) and when the play was designed to the other side of the field, he let the defense know right off the snap by half-assing his decoy routes. He's had issues with injuries. He needs a lot of work on the technical parts of the job and he didn't seem to improve on that this season (his fans will say this is because he was hurt, but for whatever it's worth, he was adamant that he was pretty much 100% healthy this year and simply didn't play well). That all probably comes off as harsh, and I am admittedly not a fan of using our first round pick on him (at least with our current roster construction), but I think the case FOR taking him would be: Daboll loves versatility in his players; think of the times we'd go no-huddle this year and have our FB, TEs, and RBs line up out wide and then either snap the ball or motion them back in and stuff. Shenault has lined up literally everywhere; he's a perfect fit for where it seems Daboll wants the offense to eventually get to. Buffalo was among the worst in the league in terms of creating plays after the catch this year; that is probably Shenault's best skill at the moment. Shenault has physically grown over the past few years; he was listed at 6'0" 195 when he was in high school and is now listed at 6'2" 220. It's not easy to develop your skills while you're still physically growing, so he might be sort of a late-bloomer development wise (and is already pretty good where he is right now). I don't think he's the athletic freak that others seem to (some think he'll run in the 4.3's, I think he'll be like a 4.53-4.58), but he's tall, strong, and pretty fast; he checks basically all of the physical boxes Beane likely has for a WR. Until his skills develop more, I think he can still be utilized in an AJ Brown type role; keep it simple, get the ball in his hands through quick hitters/manufactured passes, and let him make plays after the catch. If we sign/trade for an established X receiver, we won't need Shenault to be a go-to guy right away and can let him develop his skills while still being successful early on. Added bonus that if we have the X spot filled, we can essentially have Shenault fill in as the backup at the X, Y, and Z. If we do bring in an X WR, I would be a lot more in favor of taking Shenault for us. Absent that though, there will be other WRs available at #22 and probably at #54 that I would prefer over him.

Yeah this is basically where I land. I think the Saints are just trying to hype him up so they can get more compensation in return for him. I’m gonna go ahead and call BS on the idea that they view the 30 year old backup to their backup as a franchise QB. Aside from the one flukey bomb he completed, they’re basically petrified of ever letting him throw the ball in one of the most QB-friendly systems in the league.

Yeah, he's supposedly up in the NW tip of Florida. Point being, there isn't a team that makes sense geographically speaking. Seems like he's likely not going to live at home next season or he'll be retiring from football.

If the rumors of where he moved to are true, Nashville, New Orleans, and Atlanta are all closer to his new home than the Florida teams. He's not really close to any NFL team. Would be like driving in from NYC to play for the Bills every day.

A lot of it is just public information. I've tried to track this this season and almost everything he has in terms of scouts was found online from schools tweeting out who is at their games and stuff. There were definitely a few that I never found public record of though. Doesn't mean it's not out there somewhere; just means I personally never found it.

If his market ends up not being too crazy, I'd have no issue with bringing him in. I would just want it to be more of a flier on him rather than investing long-term money.

The power they run with despite how short they are is similar. CEH seems to have more speed and far better receiving skills though. As OP mentioned, I think he probably gets taken too early for us, but I would also love to have him on the team. Think we go in a different direction though.

I watch the Bucs almost every week. I'm still highly skeptical of Perriman because he looked like crap up until those last few games when he was thrust into a big role, but to be fair, he really did look outstanding in those games. He made some ridiculously good catches and was obviously very productive. Also, his true catch rate of 83.7% is pretty good: #38 in the league in that metric. Yards/catch and Yards/target were #6 and #21 respectively. He really did turn it on in those last 5 games; I'm just nervous about committing much to him because he had basically been terrible for the previous 4 or 5 years or whatever it's been, including most of this past season. It's possible that he's really turned the corner, but I would probably just opt for drafting a couple rookies and or signing/acquiring an established good WR.

Sikkema, the guy that wrote Cleveland's scouting report, didn't write one on Metcalf, but their resident WR expert had this to say: https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/kelly--full-2019-nfl-draft-wide-receiver-rankings

He’s a favorite of PFF. Think they had him like top 15 in their mock or something like that.

Yep, for sure. I think that also just kinda happens in a class like this where there's so many relatively high-level QB prospects. People will beat other QBs down to raise the guy they like up. I'll be astonished if Herbert slides out of the first round and pretty surprised if he slides out of the top 15. I expect he'll be the 3rd or 4th QB taken (think it's between him and Love). I just personally am not relatively high on him (still a 1st round grade, but just barely).

Like you, just an initial take. I have my full scouting reports done on Burrow, Herbert, Hurts, and Patterson, but that's all so far. I have Burrow tied with Lamar Jackson as my 2nd highest rated QB of the past 4 drafts (Mahomes being #1). Herbert, Hurts, and Patterson are all a long ways behind him; I have Herbert on the fringe of the first round (which would be the lowest grade for anyone that's actually been taken in the 1st round these past 4 years), Hurts as a 2nd-3rd round pick, and Patterson more like a 3rd or 4th (though I suspect I'm much higher on him than most are as it seems like a lot of people think he has zero hope whatsoever). I still have to finish the rest, but I suspect that Love and Fromm will both be ahead of Herbert for me and Eason probably close to him.

I think this is all probably true, but I just want our first WR of the draft to be more refined personally. He certainly has the tools to be a good and versatile WR, but I'm not really sure he's productive early on outside of manufactured touches (which, to be fair, would be great to get more of in our offense lol). I just think you can find what he can provide today pretty easily around the league. What he could potentially develop into is much harder to find but I haven't really seen much reason to assume he gets there.