DCOrange

Jefferson's contested catch % this past season was the highest in the entire draft class, going 12/13. If we focus on just the Day 1-2 WRs (rough list of them), their true catch rates last year were (making the calculation based on PFF's drop numbers here): Ruggs: 96.0% Lamb: 93.0% Jefferson: 92.0% Shenault: 91.5% Jeudy: 91.3% Pittman: 90.9% Claypool: 90.5% Aiyuk: 88.8% Mims: 87.7% Higgins: 84.6% Reagor: 79.9% Hamler: 78.9% Peoples-Jones: 78.4% Of course this can be greatly influenced by how deep the targets are; deeper targets are generally more difficult to catch, and Jefferson's average depth of target was the lowest among those players (the only player in single digits). Basically all the players with high average depth of targets are at the bottom of the list in terms of true catch % and vice versa. The exceptions are Lamb (high in both categories), Aiyuk (low in both categories), and Ruggs (average ADoT and the highest true catch %)

It'd be fine because once you acquire him, you can always cut him if you ever need the cap space. Having said that, he's the 6th highest paid RB in the league and I think Singletary is better than him. I would rather be seeking a WR or pass rusher in a trade.

I think he holds the team back and don't think he was anything more than a game manager in the Super Bowl. Looks like we simply disagree on him as a player and that's fine. I'm sure other teams agree with you and that's what I would be counting on if I were in SF's shoes.

Boston media guy just to give you an idea of the angle their spinning it with: Big difference between the two is that moving Jimmy frees up a ton of cap space. Moving Foles does not.

It's not 30+ million. It's like $26-27 million. Someone would do it for a 1st or 2nd round pick IMO. But it would be a mistake.

Peter King was talking about it this week as having both Brady and Jimmy on the roster this season but that doesn't make any sense to me.

It all boils down to what they think of Jimmy. If I were in their shoes, I would be making my contingency plans this offseason anyways; I would be looking to move Jimmy a year from now so I would want to bring in a rookie this year that can take over in the future. Trading Jimmy now for assets and then significantly upgrading (IMO) to Brady makes sense to me too, even moreso if they end up bringing a young QB in to sit behind Brady for a year or two. The bigger question is whether or not the Jimmy to NE part makes sense, which would depend on what Belichick wants to do there. But at any rate, I'm sure SF could find someone else that would trade assets for Jimmy and that's a win to me as I think he's in the no man's land of QBs. Good enough to get a big contract but bad enough to kill your team's chances because of your contract.

I think that's partially just because of how special he is too. He absolutely embarrassed CBs that tried to press him at the line and teams quickly learned not to try it; they had a much better chance if they just played off coverage. He's just a filthy player; I would be very surprised if he doesn't become a Pro Bowl caliber WR (unless he becomes injury-prone). He's so much more skilled than Goodwin it's not a comparison at all. Ruggs is a good all-around WR who happens to be blessed with incredible athleticism. Goodwin is a fast guy that can catch sometimes.

I don't think he's any worse than Lamb in this regard honestly and at least from the games I watched, he dealt with press coverage more often than Lamb or Jeudy did. Jeudy was incredible against press coverage though, which is one of the main reasons he's my #1 WR. I would tend to go with Ruggs > Lamb for #2.

Unless Jeudy slides a lot, a 1, 2, and 5 probably won't get us high enough. It would probably cost a 1, 2, and 3 to get up to 10. Turn the 2 into a future 2 instead and now you're probably talking around 14ish. 1, 2, and 5 might get you up around 15 if you get lucky but I doubt it and I doubt Jeudy is available there anyways. Edit: I think the trade charts would say 1, 2, and 5 is enough, but in reality, I don't think that would be the case. Pittsburgh moved from 20 to 10 last year with their 1, 2, and 3 for example.

FWIW, Matthew Fairburn says it sounds like extensions for White, Dawkins, and Milano are a matter of when, not if and that McBeane view those three as long-term core players.

I promise you Clemson has been scouted plenty.

Which experts are you referring to? Just at a quick glance, McShay, Jeremiah, and Matt Miller all do not have him in the first round. I don't doubt that there's a mock out there that does, but I haven't seen one yet.

Foles + 20 for 22 is possible. The 9th pick is not. To move from 22 to 9 would cost roughly #22, plus a 2nd round pick, plus a 3rd round pick, maybe more. There's no way they view gaining like $3 million in cap space as being worth all of that.

I just can't imagine the Jaguars would move down from #9 to #22 just for a couple million dollars in cap space. I think people have gone way off the deep end regarding all these ideas of teams attaching high value draft picks to players to move them.

Really interesting trade. Bouye struggled a lot this year and wasn't anything special the year before either. Denver banking on him bouncing back obviously.

I'm hoping we ultimately go big fish hunting here, but I think that ultimately will require a trade. If that's unpalatable to Beane, I think there will still be potential upgrades on the market (probably short-term upgrades), but you could make a decent case he might end up being our best option.

Very interesting. I like Higgins quite a bit and think he's been critiqued more harshly than other WR prospects for some reason. I would be pretty happy to have him at #22; probably not my #1, maybe not even among my top 3 realistic options, but he's close. Something like Higgins in the 1st (or possibly trade-up in the 2nd) and someone that's a little more explosive after the catch like Duverney, Hightower, or Edwards on Day 3 would be a pretty nice haul for us IMO.

Not a rumor, but the more I've thought about it, the more I think we might see Beane pursue Paul Richardson as a free agent. There were rumors we were one of the teams most interested in him back when he ultimately signed with Washington and he would make a lot of sense for us still today.

The talk going around right now is that he's locked himself in as a 2nd rounder. You never really know though; there's so many good WRs in this class that it widens these guys' potential draft range a lot. Teams can like Mims a lot and still have 10-15 WRs ahead of him in this class.

I don't see him getting over $10 million a year. I think somewhere in the $8-9 mil range gets it done. Whether that's with Buffalo or somewhere else, we'll see. Even with all the guys getting tagged, there's still a lot of pass rush options on the free agent market, not to mention guys potentially available for trades. I also don't think the Instagram post really tells us anything; just means free agency begins in two weeks and we've known for awhile now that Beane was fine with him testing the market.

Judon as well

It's kind of weird how we have people insisting the Bills don't have enough cap space to bring in a free agent like Ngakoue and also have people arguing that we should not only bring in Ngakoue, but also roughly double the amount of money to do so by taking Foles too. A move like this would pretty much mean we're waiting on giving out the big extensions right? Would we need to wait one year before we could cut Foles or can the team that acquires him then immediately cut him and recognize cap savings? I can't remember exactly how it worked with the Osweiler deal.

Interesting to say the least. I'm not super big on trading up for a WR in a class like this, but I know Beane can't help himself sometimes and I imagine the top 3 WRs are all very tempting to him. #14 ahead of Denver seems like the sweet spot if he doesn't care which of the 3 he gets (though there's a chance they're all taken at that point too). #10 ahead of the Jets, Raiders, Colts, and Broncos makes sense if Beane wants to go up and get a specific guy. Edit: To put in perspective what we're talking about in terms of price, Pittsburgh sent #20, #52, and a future 3rd to move up to #10 last year so it would cost something close to a 1, a 2, and a 3 for us. Maybe slightly more than that depending on how high we want to go.

You're totally right. I glossed over the "business" part.