DCOrange

I like Cooks a lot but this whole thing just makes no sense.

I don’t buy his draft guide but he’s a good Twitter follow at least. I assume his draft guide is good too.

He's basically just a super well-known film guru guy. Publishes a huge NFL Draft document each year that people pay $20ish to download and access.

He has Buffalo #1 in projected points allowed

This doesn't really work because of rounding. At any rate, he includes a total point projection on the right hand side: 328 points or 20.5 points per game. 21st out of the 28 teams he's released so far, which is basically exactly where we were a year ago. Last year, our top 3 were responsible for 64% of the team's passing yards. Clay projects they'll be responsible for 65% this year. No, that's for fantasy football.

I personally hate Dillon. He's pretty much the opposite of what I want in a running back. I like Moss though and I think he's versatile enough to get me excited and enough of a power back to get Beane excited about using him as a complement to Singletary.

If Beane wants him, there's pretty much a 100% chance he'll be available to us. It would be shocking to see him taken before our 3rd round pick, much less our 2nd.

People should understand this is basically him replicating the sorts of odds you get in Vegas, meaning that everyone is pushed a bit towards the middle. He almost certainly won't have teams projected 12+ wins or less than 4 wins. A good example of that is he has the Bills defense allowing like 60+ more points than they did last season, but that's also the best in the league. So if you look at the points allowed, it looks like he thinks the defense will be worse this year, but he literally thinks they'll statistically be the best. And I believe the 8.5 wins is enough to win the division based on his projections/is like 4th best in the conference. Also, as I mentioned in the last Mike Clay thread, it's kinda pointless to be looking at this stuff when the roster isn't complete. Like he has Buffalo as one of the worst RB groups in the league right now, but it seems very likely that we will improve on that before the season begins.

Honestly probably shouldn't be up there at all. We took Claypool with the first pick. Between the Diggs play and Claypool, there's just no way we invest a 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th round pick into WRs.

I voted Simpson here but if it were my choice I’d be taking Amik Robertson

I'm really curious to see what the Packers end up doing. I think Michael Pittman is a really good fit for them, though people that are not me would probably say that's too early for him. I think he checks all of the boxes the Packers and LaFleur are generally looking for though.

Yes

To be fair, Atlanta is literally known as ATL. I don't think people really walk around saying "Welcome to the Buf." It still looks gross on these jerseys though.

The throwback is really sharp. Everything else...yikes. The two on the left are the best of the new jerseys but they're saying they'll be going monochrome for their main jersey combos. What I had heard was that the Falcons and Rams were going to be gross and the Bucs, Browns, and Chargers were going to be relatively decent. Seems like they're 2/2 so far.

Aside from both having red and white, they aren't really similar at all.

With the 76th pick in the NFL Draft, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers select Terrell Burgess, safety out of the University of Utah. This was easily the most difficult decision I had to make in this draft. In the first round, I had it narrowed down to whichever tackle fell, Kinlaw, or whichever of the 3 stud WRs was on the board. Ultimately Andrew Thomas was the only one that remained from that grouping, so easy enough. In the second round, I was tempted by Ashtyn Davis and JK Dobbins, but I knew that I needed a WR that could come in and start on day 1 out wide and Michael Pittman was one of the very few that I was that confident in, so ultimately, it wasn't that difficult for me. This pick though...this was brutal. I ultimately narrowed it down to Burgess, my heartthrob Amik Robertson, Josh Uche, Zack Moss, and Antonio Gibson. Ultimately, I decided to gamble on good RB prospects still being available on Day 3. Since this is my final pick of the mock, we won't know how that gamble turns out, but looking at who is still available, I'm comfortable thinking that I can get a starting RB and if not, there's starting caliber RBs available in free agency still. The same more or less goes for the edge rushers, except I'm just looking for developmental depth rather than a starter. Tampa only has two edge rushers right now though so that pick will need to be prioritized very soon (though again, there are starting caliber edge rushers available in free agency still so we could sign someone there). That left me with Amik Robertson, who I've loved throughout the draft process, and Terrell Burgess. Robertson has some size/athleticism issues that will give teams some pause, but his quickness, instincts, toughness, and ball skills give him a chance to become a great nickel corner IMO. In this case though, all of Tampa's corners showed promise last season as the year wore on. That was a pleasant surprise/potentially a fluke, but ultimately, corner just wasn't a disaster the way the safeties were last season. Justin Evans should be returning this year, which will help, but Burgess can step in and be a starter from day 1 (and he can line up in the slot if needed as well).

Just don’t really care to publish that online if I can help it haha

Yeah, I'm not saying I wouldn't do it...just saying it is a very high price to pay. I could go either way on it but I do agree that he's almost certainly better than what you'd get at 54 or even any pick after #2 really.

I think a pretty decent number of people would say he's at least on Ford/Clark's level if not better. It's obviously a very high price to pay though, especially considering we already don't have a 1st round pick.

That'll obviously depend on who is available since we aren't picking until 54. I tend to think one of the safeties are the most likely match of BPA and underrated need. I'm low-key hoping that Delpit ends up sliding like some people think he could but really, there's like 5 of them that I'd be happy with at 54. From the skill positions that I spent most of my time on, of the guys that are most likely to be available at 54, I would say Michael Pittman at WR or Clyde Edwards-Helaire at RB are probably my favorites. There's a chance that a better WR prospect slides to 54 but we'll see. And I would guess right now that Beane will ultimately take a DB or a lineman. I haven't spent too much time on them, but just off of what I've read, I'm not particularly high on the defensive linemen. I think an OG could be a solid choice though.

Rather than post the 1000 words or whatever it is again, here's a link to my BR post that includes everything I've worked on for this year's draft: https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2020/4/7/21212006/melancers-draft-info-who-weve-met-with-scouted-rb-wr-metrics-qb Included in this are: Links to my QB scouting reports for this year's prospects as well as the prior two years (and draft grades for the Mahomes class but unfortunately I lost my scouting reports from that year when I got my new laptop, which is part of the reason I do it online now) A color-coded breakdown of which prospects we've sent scouts to watch in live action A list of prospects we've met with during the draft process (including the FaceTime meetings) A breakdown of the WRs based on NFL Combine numbers, PlayerProfiler.com, and everyone's favorite, Pro Football Focus A breakdown of the RBs based on those same three sources And lastly, links to some of my older draft-related posts/metrics breakdowns to get an idea of any historical trends. For reference, I believe roughly half of our draft picks in the Beane era have been players that we scouted live, and FWIW, Singletary was one of the main standouts of my RB analysis last year. That should pretty much do it for me up until draft time. I'll obviously still be around discussing prospects in more detail, but I don't have any plans to scout additional QBs or create any other breakdowns at this time. Hope you all enjoy!

Hey man, just checking out some condos. I'll be back in 6 hours to make my 7th round selection.

I have a feeling he will go much much earlier than this in the real draft. Nice pickup this late.

I have to say I am with you Kirbs. He is no more than a late day 3 guy in this class to me. I concur with you guys. Really enjoyed watching him...his hands and contested catch ability are among the best in the class IMO, but man, to say he struggles to separate is an understatement. I think I've compared him to Duke as well. I think he could be better than Duke, but I don't really see him playing a valuable role in the NFL even if he develops nicely. Like Gunner, I'd take him late on Day 3 and see what happens, but I'm not touching him before that. It's entirely possible I've propped Shea up a bit due to how bad the bottom of the QB class is this year. Once you get past Hurts (my QB7), it's tough for me to really justify taking any of these guys. Even guys like Patterson and Anthony Gordon have very low ceilings IMO.