DCOrange

Re: Okudah, I’ve seen a few people mention they think Henderson could end up being the #1 CB taken

I'm not sure PFF can be any worse decision making wise than Gettleman to be honest lol

I love it personally, though I favor Jeudy over Ruggs but really can't go wrong with either IMO. FWIW, this is also who PFF believes the Giants should take.

I can't imagine he'd ever drop THAT far (not to mention it's just not really a need for us anymore), but FWIW, there's been a lot of whispers that he could potentially be someone that suffers from not being able to meet with teams due to his injury past.

Well, it's not like I'm leaving the house to go anywhere anytime soon, so I'm in haha. Bucs Packers Jets Edit: Which teams are left anyways? Might be easier to list 3 if I know what's available.

I view him as a 2nd or 3rd rounder and my #4 or 5 RB in the class. PFF has him in the 2nd round as arguably the #1 RB in the class. Their elusive rating tends to be the thing that translates best from college to the NFL and Moss is one of if not the most elusive back they've ever scouted. So he's pretty much insanely difficult to tackle, has good awareness of second level defenders, is a good pass blocker, and did a decent job catching the ball this year...there's not much not to like with him.

The Draft Network is probably the best option for free scouting reports. PFF's draft guide is very good if you happen to have a membership already but I wouldn't buy a membership just for the draft guide.

Probably two different things but I would imagine what you're referring to would be pretty closely aligned to the Breakaway %.

With regard to the elusive rating, people tend to think elusive = juking people out because that's how it's defined in Madden. Elusive Rating is more about forcing missed tackles, whether it's side-stepping guys so that you can easily run through arm tackles, juking people out, or just bouncing off guys. Moss is more about the arm tackles and bouncing off guys. So for example, in the video below, they would probably say the first two plays in this highlight video are 4 or 5 eluded defenders. As for breakaway %, that one is simple. He had a ton of big runs at Utah. Speed isn't really necessary to bust off big runs, especially if you're as elusive as hard to tackle as he is.

He's just saying that you shouldn't take RBs in the 1st round because they aren't very valuable and you shouldn't give RBs big long-term contracts because they aren't very valuable. It's a lot of words to say that, but that's essentially all he's saying.

I put together something similar for the WRs (which can be seen on the 3rd tab of this spreadsheet), but the RB stuff is on the 4th tab. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EGcKt-3OhHND7shQmY9LREGwBxtnUcFwQtQDz2U-3tk/edit?usp=sharing The first two columns identify RBs that we've scouted, met with, FaceTimed, etc. Dominator rating comes from PlayerProfiler.com...it basically shows the percentage of the offense's production that the player is responsible for. Anything above 40% is generally considered to be elite. Should be noted that the rest of the numbers are specific to this past season. So for example, AJ Dillon only dropped 1 pass this year on 16 targets, but his career drop % is much worse than that. I just don't have those numbers for all the prospects. Rush grade, elusive rating, and yards after contact are pulled from PFF's draft guide. Missed tackles forced/att is based on PFF's missed tackle numbers divided by total carries (this number is specifically for how they did as runners, not in the receiving game). Breakaway % = the percentage of their yards that were accumulated on 15+ yard runs (so for example, if a guy runs for 100 yards but 90 of it came on one play, breakaway % would be 90%). Drop % is based on PFF's drop numbers divided by total targets. The rest is just pulled from their regular stats and or NFL Combine numbers. Edit: For reference, I put this chart together last year that shared some of the same metrics.

I personally wouldn't trade up, but I know Beane almost certainly will. If he must, I think trading up from the 4th to get back into the 3rd probably makes the most sense. Won't hurt too much in terms of what we give up but that could allow us to get 3 very good prospects.

We literally have 1 decent RB right now. I don't know why anyone would expect our RB group to be ranked highly. As currently constructed, we'd be relying on a guy that was a healthy scratch the majority of the season and another who was a practice squad member (and possibly only on the practice squad because he didn't count). The fact that we're ahead of 6 teams at RB is pretty good considering we only have one guy. I'm not sure we should really care what Mike Clay thinks, but assuming we should, we should at least wait until rosters have settled. Our RB rating will almost certainly increase significantly by the time the season (hopefully) begins.

If we're going to use Football Outsiders' numbers, DVOA probably makes more sense. DYAR will likely prop up 1st rounders because teams that take a RB in the 1st round will feel obligated to use them as more of a bellcow so they'll naturally have more touches and fare better in terms of DYAR. DVOA is focused on the value each RB gives on a per touch basis (also probably more important in our case due to the fact that Singletary didn't become a starter until well into the season). Singletary ranks 13th in terms of DVOA. It seems possible to me we already have our top 10 guy. And in terms of DVOA, 4 of the top 10 from last year were drafted in the first 2 rounds. 5 were drafted in the 5th round or later.

I think the two that probably best fit the idea of producing behind poor OLines would be Cam Akers and Ke'Shawn Vaughn.

Do we have any reason to think this is actually the case? I'm not saying it isn't but this seems to just be an assumption. If Wade is on the active roster, that would be a pleasant surprise. Dillon was pretty much never used in the passing game in college and when he was, he dropped passes at an alarming rate. He also just doesn't look comfortable running routes; it's not impossible that he ends up being an okay receiver in the NFL but everything we've seen from him to this point would suggest he will be a liability in that regard. And we can playaction with other RBs. We don't want defenses to be able to stack the line, especially with Allen's inability up until now to hurt them over the top.

Yep, this is one of the reasons why I don't want any part of AJ Dillon personally. Him being in the game will tell teams what we're doing (and also probably force us into formations that invite the defense to stack the line as well).

I would definitely prefer to just stay at 54 rather than trading up for a RB, especially considering we're very likely to end up with one of the top 4 being there at 54 or at worst getting Moss/Akers in the 3rd.

He was PFF’s #1 WR in the league this past season and I think he’s been top 15-20 each other year as well. They’ve always been extremely high on him (and deservedly so, he’s an incredible talent).

I tend to think Herbert and Love will go Day 1 as well, but I personally wouldn't touch Herbert at 6. I don't think Love would be a bad choice, but in their case I think I would personally just take the tackle they want and see what happens with the QBs. IMO, the best case scenario at QB and worst case scenario are both pretty much the same thing...Tyrod being their starter for at least most of next season. Question is how much they value getting Love or Eason or Hurts for example in the room with Tyrod this year versus just drafting one of the QBs in next year's class. I certainly won't blame them for just taking their QB at 6; it just isn't what I would do in their shoes and my guess is that they'll either trade up for Tua or pass on QB at 6. Might also depend on how invested they are in Lynn. If they still view him as the long-term coach there, I wouldn't be surprised if Lynn likes Hurts a lot and I would guess he doesn't value Eason nearly as much as other teams might.

I think they very well could go tackle there. I'm really curious to see what they end up doing. Certainly wouldn't be shocked by a move up for Tua, but they could also just go tackle at 6 and then move up into the late 1st or wait until their 2nd rounder to get a young QB if they want. If they came out of the draft with the tackle of their choice + Jordan Love for example, I think that would be a major win for them.

I get why people didn't like Tyrod as a QB while he was here. He obviously had a pretty low ceiling as a passer. But comments like this always crack me up. Tyrod ranked among the highest in the league each year in terms of how often he pushed the ball down the field. Allen has been worse in that regard (not to mention just far worse in terms of actual success throwing down the field). The idea that Tyrod only checked it down was a myth. He had plenty of issues as a passer but that wasn't one of them.

Yeah Adams and Watt were the two I disagree with. Still obviously great players so no big deal but I personally would take White ahead of them.

I would tend to lean towards one of the safeties as well. Ultimately depends who is there but safety seems like a good match of BPA, system value, and need. I think Dugger is probably the one they’re hoping for as well but it’s a really deep safety class so tough to say which guys will be there at 54.

I can’t remember for sure but I feel like someone around here mentioned Matt Miller saying we liked him awhile back. Might be where WGR was getting that from.