DCOrange

I actually don't think his downside is very low. In the very least, he's a guy that if you just get the ball in his hands, he can be electric as a runner. The downside of guys like, for example, Mason Rudolph, is that if he doesn't improve as a passer, he's nothing. If Lamar doesn't improve as a passer, he can still be a playmaker. I actually think Lamar is one of the safest options considering how many holes all of the other QB prospects have this year.

The missing pieces regarding the completion percentages are: 1. Where are they completing the passes? 2. How often are their WRs catching the passes? 3. Is the completion a well-thrown ball or just a good catch? I can't answer the 3rd with the available data (though Ben Solak from NDT Scouting is working on that), but the other two can be factored in. For example, take Lamar Jackson, Sam Darnold, and Drew Lock. Raw Completion %: Darnold: 63.1% Lock: 57.8% Lamar: 59.1% So based on this, we'd say Darnold was pretty significantly more accurate than the other two. But if we take drops into account and split it out based on the distance of the throw, you get the attached table, which shows that both Lock and Lamar had a higher adjusted completion percentage overall. In the short+intermediate range, they're all within 1% of each other, but on deep balls, Lamar is 2% better than Darnold and Lock is nearly 9% better.

It's not the distance that's an issue with Rudolph; it's the velocity. He can get the passes down the field (though he has a tendency to underthrow them when he misses). But his passes float too much IMO; think of the Peterman INT against Jacksonville for example. The ball just hangs in the air too long on those throws to the perimeter. I don't agree with the "nobody did less with more" take...Rudolph did throw for what, 5,000ish yards and around 40 TDs while rarely turning the ball over? That offense was insanely good this season. But I do think it's mostly to do with who he was throwing to and the scheme that he was playing in rather than Rudolph's actual skillset. Just a ton of one-read throws to wide open guys and just throwing it up for his amazing receivers to go get the ball when they weren't wide open.

I'll hopefully be around! Never posted here before, but I've watched more of this year's QB class than probably the last 5 classes combined since I thought this was certainly the year that Buffalo would finally be aggressive in getting one.

I think Mayfield has below average arm strength too, but his ball placement is leagues ahead of Rudolph from what I've seen. I guess we'll see what happens with Rudolph, but it honestly kinda blows my mind that there's even a discussion about him possibly going in the 1st round. I thought he was a good sleeper candidate when there were rumors that he might enter the draft last year, but he just isn't a first round prospect, especially in a class that's so deep at QB. I think it would be pretty surprising if he ever turns into a starting QB; not impossible, but surprising. Like I said, I just don't see anything with him that you can hang your hat on. I put him on the same tier as the smaller school guys like Logan Woodside and Kyle Lauletta, but even then, those two at least have very good/borderline elite ball placement. Rudolph just isn't really good at anything.

I personally like Jackson as a prospect a lot; it certainly takes a certain willingness for risk though. He's an incredible athlete with great arm strength and he's a much better passer than he's given credit for. If you adjust for drops, his completion percentage is ahead of Darnold and on par with Rosen/Rudolph (Mayfield is wayyyy ahead of the pack). And despite not being a traditional pocket QB, Louisville's offense has more pro concepts in it than what was run at USC or either of the two Oklahoma schools. If you watch Lamar, you certainly see him sail some passes high, but you also see him make a lot of "NFL throws", throws into tight windows, and just some absolute dimes down the field. I like Rudolph as a guy to target in the 4th round, but nothing higher than that. He just doesn't really have any strengths. His arm strength is probably below average. His ball placement is generally below average. His athleticism is below average. He doesn't really show the ability to work beyond his first read very often. He's just a middling prospect, like a slightly better Nathan Peterman from last year. If Buffalo can't get one of the top 5 QBs (in my mind, Rosen, Darnold, Allen, Mayfield, and Lamar; not in that order), I wouldn't bother taking one at all until around the 4th round. There's plenty of worthy projects to take after that top 5, but they're all significantly worse prospects IMO. I don't think anyone outside of the top 5 projects as a starter in the NFL; I'd give Rudolph, Lauletta, Woodside, and Falk a snowball's chance at least, but they're far more likely to end up being backups.