DCOrange

I doubt Legette will be my preferred choice (or even one that I'd be happy with in general), but I wouldn't be surprised if he's one of the guys we consider. Having said that, Dane Brugler reported earlier this morning that most teams have a 3rd round grade on Legette, and that could potentially fall further after he measured 2-3 inches shorter than expected. He does admittedly have the physical traits to potentially really impress people, but I think there's a lot of physical traits types in this class and I'd probably rather opt for one of the younger ones if we go that route. A few thoughts on the QBs as that's really the only position I've really scouted thus far: I'm very early in my Penix review but I really liked what I've seen thus far. We'll see if that continues. Along the same wavelengths as the Brugler report on Legette, he also discussed Penix vs. Bo Nix and basically said Penix is currently viewed as a late 2nd or 3rd round prospect. He also added that he wouldn't be surprised if Michael Pratt ultimately jumps over Penix. Nix is viewed as a borderline 1st and could potentially go as high as top 10 if he has a strong Senior Bowl week. I ended up with a 4th round grade on Jayden Daniels (though I may watch some more film to try to understand what other people are seeing that I'm not), so needless to say, I'd be thrilled if the Patriots take him in the top 3. I have JJ as my #3 QB at the moment but only a 2nd round grade on him. I know most of the draft media thinks he'll be a 1st rounder, potentially to Seattle. Lastly, I think I'd lean towards Odunze over Nabers at the moment, but that's really just based off of some stuff I noticed while watching their QBs on All 22 as well as some of the metrics that I've posted in the WR thread.

I think ideally we kill two birds with one stone and get a wide out that can win with speed with one pick, but if we simply get a good wide out and then double dip later to add more of a speed element, that probably works for me too. I think Thomas' ability to beat press coverage will make him a far more consistent threat than someone like Gabe. I suspect that with his press abilities and in general the way he's able to separate with speed, he'll at minimum be very tough to deal with on vertical routes and crossers. If he can expand beyond that, even better. But the press beaters are his trump card that make him my #1 target assuming we don't make a massive trade up. I've also heard that when Nabers sat out the bowl game, Thomas showed a much more diverse skill set than what he showed most of the season, but I admittedly have not watched yet.

You're right. I had written that down in my scouting notes but didn't do anything with the notes yet so he ended up remaining in my spreadsheet.

Dane Brugler (The Athletic's draft guru) posted a Senior Bowl preview including a section on the WRs. Some cliffnotes: Mentions how Tank Dell and Jayden Reed dominated the Senior Bowl last year and went on to have successful rookie campaigns. Also mentioned Michael Wilson and Puka Nacua consistently making plays and the latter in particular obviously had a great rookie season. Malachi Corley is considered the best senior WR in the draft and some Deebo Samuel-type skills. Keeping an eye on how he tracks deep passes at the Senior Bowl because he didn't do it much in college. Ladd McConkey and Roman Wilson are two that he expects to stand out in practices; currently viewed as Day 2 prospects, undersized but "big time speed and an understanding of how to leverage that speed to get open". Says most NFL teams currently have a 3rd round grade on Xavier Legette; teams will be watching to see if he can create separation at the top of routes at the Senior Bowl. Compares Jacob Cowing Tank Dell due to similar size and blazing speed. Luke McCaffrey is one of the best in the draft at playing through contact. Tez Walker is a likely Day 2 pick thanks to his speed and ball skills. Ricky Pearsall has great hands. "I could keep going (about the WRs) but the word count for the article would get out of hand". Seems like he really loves this class. Behind a pay wall, but if you're subscribed/have other means of getting access, here's the link: https://theathletic.com/5228871/2024/01/29/nfl-draft-2024-senior-bowl-quarterbacks/?access_token=595014

I put together a spreadsheet of many WR metrics, including stats on their contested ball abilities.https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12pCgsJPa9X-jjNMOZ_exJTAEfxmZOeETzEm8SNkuXec/edit?usp=sharing Contested catch % tends to not be very stable, so hard to tell really. For example, these guys were all 50% or higher on contested catches this season (bolded guys that are considered to have at least a remote chance of going in the 1st round): Rome Odunze, Washington Malik Washington, Virginia Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint, Georgia Luke McCaffrey, Rice Tez Walker, North Carolina Tory Horton, Colorado State Javon Baker, Central Florida Jermaine Burton, Alabama Ainias Smith, Texas A&M Bryson Nesbit, North Carolina Ja'Lynn Polk, Washington Brian Thomas Jr., LSU Ricky Pearsall, Florida Dominic Lovett, Georgia Zakhari Franklin, Ole Miss (barely played this season, but was good at it the prior year) But of those 14, only 3 of them even had 20+ contested targets; it's all small sample size stuff. Also of those 14, only 6 of them managed to catch 50% or higher the prior season: Luke McCaffrey Javon Baker Jermaine Burton Bryson Nesbit Ja'Lynn Polk Brian Thomas Jr. There's also always debate about whether or not that's really something to be prioritized in the draft; it's great if they can make contested catches, but if they're being forced to make those catches in college, it's probably a sign that they'll struggle to get open in the pros. Of the 14 listed above, I would say Rosemy-Jacksaint and Luke McCaffrey should potentially be red flagged for having a high % of their targets that are contested. Tez Walker and Ja'Lynn Polk are borderline red flags IMO. The consensus top 2 WRs in the class, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers, were both over 50% a year ago but were in the 40s this season. Keon Coleman was over 60% a year ago but down to 33% this year. Harrison and Coleman are potential red flags for relying too much on contested targets as well. Nobody relied on contested targets more this past season than Coleman, but he was okay in this regard the year before when he played for Michigan State. Harrison has been in the orange both of the last two years (red being bad, green good, yellow neutral).

This game’s about to be over

I mean, they played one of the strongest schedules in the league and when you solely look at how teams fared against good teams, Baltimore lapped the field.

Seriously that was incredible. From the disguise to Hamilton’s closing speed that was just perfection.

Lamar for sure. One of my favorite non-Bills in the league

Officially 6’0.7” and I will be extremely shocked if he runs 4.2s. Probably late 4.4s or early 4.5s if he has a bad day.

Yes they all received votes. Not necessarily 1st place votes though.

I’m obviously frustrated the Chiefs keep knocking us out but I don’t hate them. And if it couldn’t be us, Lamar is probably the player I most want to see win a Super Bowl so people can finally shut up about if you can ever win playoff games with him, so I am excited to watch this one.

I already did the deep dive. He was one of the best in the league this season in basically every category, and if you expand it to the last 3 years or something, he’s still well above average. And the only people that get targeted nearly as much as him downfield are basically all the big name WRs in the league so he’s in great company. He just unfortunately provides nothing else beyond those deep passes.

Gabe’s numbers over the last 4 years put him among the best deep threats in the league. The issue for him is that was the only way he was useful and with those targets being higher variance/higher risk, the numbers don’t look great next to more all around receivers.

I think this is mostly as simple as Davis is generally targeted on deep passes and deep passes are more likely to be intercepted than shorter ones. Having said that we’ve obviously seen a few shorter option routes get intercepted too.

Don’t get the people saying Dak shouldn’t be in there. He had a great season; arguably better than Josh. Obviously sucked in the playoffs though.

Yeah just went back and listened again. Field Yates said if he runs at the combine he’s going to absolutely fly and said he thinks a 4.38 is in the cards.

I don’t think Lamar would be my choice for MVP but I don’t think there’s any rational argument that he’s easily replaceable in that offense. Votes are submitted before any playoff games are played so the latter is not a factor. The performance against Miami definitely carries some weight though.

I think everyone knows Lamar won. Question is really how many votes went to other candidates/who finished 2nd. We know Josh received at least one first place vote so it won’t be unanimous for Lamar.

I’d have to go back and listen but I’m pretty sure they said nobody would be surprised if he runs like a 4.39 or something like that. Just looking around the internet it seems like people are all over the place on his speed. I’ve seen reports that he’s been laser timed at a 4.56, in the 4.4’s, and the 4.3’s so no idea lol. At any rate, he doesn’t really look like an explosive downfield guy to me. More of a quick slot guy that’s good at finding holes in zones.

Kiper and Field Yates were saying they think he’s a potential 4.3’s guy and like I said, they were basically saying Worthy is probably the fastest in the class but McConkey is in the discussion for #2. I don’t really see it personally but that’s what they were saying.

I know the draft guys at ESPN expect McConkey to have one of the fastest 40 times at the Combine after Xavier Worthy. I don’t think he’s what we need though. More of a slot only guy and zone specialist, both things we already have covered. I expect him to be one of the better rookies immediately though.

The current expectation is he ends up with Washington. Seems like an open secret in DC right now. Everyone’s already talking about him as the new HC here.

Not sure about order within tiers but probably a top 11 of: Tier 1: Mahomes Josh Lamar Tier 2: Burrow Herbert Stafford Tier 3: Dak Lawrence Cousins Love Stroud

Wilson is definitely on my watch list too. Checks a lot of boxes in terms of metrics and he was probably the only Michigan skill position guy that really popped on film to me. Downside is he’s mostly a slot guy (mostly, but he did play like 25ish % out wide) and we’re probably locking Shakir in there. If we’re only taking one WR in the draft, he’s probably not the one for me, but if we want to double dip, he’s a guy that I’d be very happy to add.