DCOrange

I had heard whispers that the Patriots and Seahawks were talking about a Sherman trade a few weeks ago; curious to see if it turns out to be true. One of the deals they supposedly discussed was simply swapping Sherman for Gronk but I have a hard time believing that's what will actually happen.

I've watched almost every Louisville game from the last two years. You can see it in one of the charts at the link below. Edit: It should be noted that these numbers have slightly moved around since I originally posted it; I think I threw those charts together prior to the bowl games. https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2017/12/14/16776108/more-ncaa-qb-charts

If Louisville's WRs could catch footballs, nobody would be discussing Lamar's completion percentage. When accounting for all of the QBs dropped passes, Lamar's completion % is higher than Sam Darnold.

Sure, but he was nowhere near Fournette, Yeldon, or Corey Grant for that matter in terms of his running. He was sadly the best pass blocker on the team though according to PFF.

Ivory graded out as the #78 pass blocker in the league at the RB position this past season on top of being one of the worst runners. He finished 5th in 2015

I know it's not; that's why I said kinda Matt Ryan. His completion percentage would suggest he was absolutely inaccurate but it was more spotty accuracy rather than legitimately inaccurate for him. Stafford and Cam were definitely inaccurate despite Cam's stats suggesting otherwise.

Matt Stafford, Cam Newton, kinda Matt Ryan

Lamar remains my preferred choice followed by Darnold and Allen.

I agree with the principle in general, but I disagree with this meaning that Buffalo shouldn't try for a QB this year. This is a great draft for QBs. Five 1st round caliber prospects. The key is not overreaching in the middle rounds where it's pretty weak. In my mind, there are 5 1st round caliber QB prospects and 1 2nd round caliber. Outside of those 6, I wouldn't bother touching a QB until late on Day 3, but I'd absolutely try to get one of those top 6 guys. This kind of principle is also part of what makes the Ivory signing so bad. RB is incredibly strong this year and now Buffalo decided to invest a lot of money in a backup when they certainly could have gotten their backup in the draft at a far cheaper price.

In terms of the likely cap hit, some guys that were paid less last year: Frank Gore Rex Burkhead CJ Anderson Latavious Murray Alfred Morris Danny Woodhead Jamaal Charles LeGarrette Blount There will likely be a bunch of free agent RBs that sign for less than this, especially considering how deep this year's draft is at the position. I mean, Blount got $1.3 million last year after rushing for 18 TDs the prior year. Guaranteeing a guy over $3 million to be a backup just doesn't make sense in today's environment, especially when you already have a high-priced starter. Edit: His cap hit might come in under Gore, Burkhead, and Anderson depending on the way it's structured.

Isn't that kind of the point though? Buffalo could have easily gotten someone on a rookie deal that would likely be a better player too. He's roughly one of the 20 highest paid RBs next season.

This seems like a pretty poor signing on the surface, but maybe it suggests that the front office isn't planning on spending much in free agency so that they were okay paying Ivory this much. I suppose it at least allows Buffalo to focus on getting a good RB in the draft rather than specifically looking for a power back, but I can't help but think that Buffalo could have gotten a better option signed at a cheaper price. They're paying him like a starting RB.

I'd be happy to have him back.

As much as I want this speculation to be true, I would guess it’s a team that has no interest in drafting a QB, hence their willingness to tell Schefter. I believe Schefter originally tweeted that it was “Houston’s Lamar Jackson”; wouldn’t surprise me if it was the Texans that told him.

I would again refer back to this: This graph isn't using a formula to throw out one number that calculates a player's athleticism like SPARQ does. It simply shows how he performed relative to the rest of the position. The two possibilities here are that he had an awful day or that he's unathletic. Even ignoring the measurements (height, weight, wingspan, arm length, hand size) and simply looking at the physical testing, you can clearly see that he's a well-below average athlete compared to NFL WRs. That doesn't mean that it's impossible for him to be productive, but saying that he is old and unathletic relative to NFL WRs is simply a true statement.

I wouldn't be particularly happy about it, but I can at least kinda understand why Buffalo would do it. Definitely makes sense that it's Buffalo, New York, or Cleveland given the draft picks those 3 teams have.

He absolutely is. He literally tested out in the 7th percentile of NFL WRs. For perspective, over the past 3 drafts, these are the WRs that you may have heard of that tested as poorly (even ignoring the age part of the issue): Pharaoh Cooper Rashard Higgins That's the whole list. They have a combined 58 catches in 57 games. Edit: Is it possible that Ridley overcomes his lack of athleticism and becomes a productive WR anyways? Sure. But I'm just not interested in taking a guy with his athleticism and age in the 1st round.

No, it's the combination. To be 24 as a rookie and also be an extremely poor athlete are both alarming red flags for someone that's expected to be an early 1st round pick. I just don't think that's a good value at all.

No he's not. Brown was 21 years old at the Combine.

Yeah, sorry, that's actually one of the factors in the athleticism comment I made. Nobody at his age and athleticism level has ever panned out. I think it's basically 3 7th round picks and Ridley.

There has never been a WR that tested as unathletic as him that has gone on to be more than a fringe NFL roster player. I'd be fine taking him on Day 2 based on his tape, but I'm not using a 1st on that. In general I don't think this WR class is worth using a 1st round pick on; the guys that you get in the 3rd or 4th round will probably be just as good. Edit: As unathletic AND OLD as Ridley.

Going off of Mel Kiper's mock draft: Kolton Miller Orlando Brown Calvin Ridley Derrius Guice James Washington Geron Christian Donte Jackson And not included in Mel's mock as a 1st rounder but just to reiterate, Mason Rudolph.

The main guys I'd eat crow on if they turn out to be bad are Lamar Jackson, Vita Vea, Roquan Smith, and Quentin Nelson. Ronald Jones would probably be the 5th but you never really know with running backs. The main guy I'd eat crow on if he turns out to be good is Mason Rudolph. I think he could potentially become a below average starter but I just don't see upside in him at all.

Hard to see his draft stock increasing after today. He seemed to prove himself to be a 4th or so round prospect. The guys that stood out IMO were: Josh Allen Josh Rosen Baker Mayfield Kyle Lauletta Mike White I still have faith in Lamar, but it was a mixed bag for him today. The rest looked pretty poor IMO.