DCOrange

It is, but the section about a QB's ceiling was particularly interesting to me considering that there were zero outliers in the dataset.

I'm not certain, but I don't think the stats used for this study exist at Lauletta's level of competition.

Based on that article, it sounds like he had Snead as a 90 going in the preseason but by the time he actually declared for the draft, he was no longer in the top 100 of his draft class.

Really interesting article, basically arguing the opposite of my Scouts Inc thread...this article basically says that this year's QB class is weak, and notably gives guys the following comparisons based on projected success at the next level (listed in order from high to low success rate). As you'll see below, the comparisons are downright frightening, but I would urge you to read the article anyways because it's a really interesting look at things using some advanced metrics. Baker Mayfield: Russell Wilson Sam Darnold: Colt McCoy Mason Rudolph: Jared Goff Logan Woodside: Nick Foles Riley Ferguson: Zach Mettenberger Nick Stevens: Mike Glennon JT Barrett: Jake Locker Luke Falk: Brett Hundley Lamar Jackson: Brandon Weeden Mike White: Jacoby Brissett Josh Rosen: Brandon Weeden Chase Litton: Tim Tebow Josh Allen: Deshone Kizer https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/4/5/17046116/2018-nfl-draft-quarterbacks-josh-allen-sam-darnold-projections-hype Edit: I should mention that this study focuses solely on passing, so for example, it would be reasonable to expect Lamar Jackson and probably Josh Allen and JT Barrett to outplay the expectations from this study.

Pretty interesting tweet, and one that I felt the need to look back on past draft classes for. ESPN archives all of the Scouts Inc. grades dating back to the 2004 draft (Eli, Rivers, Big Ben, Losman). It appears that either in 2014 or 2015, they tweaked their grading formula and became much harsher. For example, 2008 had 13 players rated 95+. 2013 had 9. 2014 had 5, and 2015-2018 has had 5 combined. So in that context, the tweet above is even more impressive. Unfortunately, there's no way to adjust the ratings from past years to match whatever this new rating system is, so I made no attempt to. I did, however, gather up all of the QBs from 2004-2018 that had a grade of 90+ and came up with the following, in order: T1 Ben Roethlisberger T1 Aaron Rodgers T1 Andrew Luck T4 Eli Manning T4 Alex Smith T4 Matt Leinart T4 JaMarcus Russell T4 Matt Ryan T9 Vince Young T9 Brady Quinn T9 Sam Bradford T9 Robert Griffin III T9 Jameis Winston T14 Jay Cutler T14 Matt Stafford T14 Blaine Gabbert T17 Philip Rivers T17 Mark Sanchez T19 Ryan Tannehill T19 Sam Darnold T21 Brian Brohm T21 Cam Newton T21 Marcus Mariota T24 Josh Allen T24 Josh Rosen T26 Blake Bortles T26 Carson Wentz T26 Jared Goff T26 Baker Mayfield T30 Chad Henne T30 Jake Locker T30 Johnny Manziel

He reminds me of Stefon Diggs a bit too and not just because they both went to Maryland.

Answering the question in the OP, I'd go with Roquan Smith. I simply think he's a stud at possibly the biggest weakness on the roster right now and maybe the 2nd most important position on a McDermott team. Some other candidates at various positions: HB: Ronald Jones WR: DJ Moore D-Line: Nathan Shepard/Harold Landry

Those light blue jerseys are soooo bad. Dark blue is okay but they just went from bad to pretty bad IMO

His velocity looks fine on the short and intermediate passes IMO. The deep ball is a struggle for him though; he definitely struggles to physically get it down the field and he has to put a lot of air under it to have a chance at getting there. I think he throws with more velocity on the 20 and under yard passes than a guy like Mason Rudolph does but like I said, the deep ball is a serious issue for him.

For what it's worth (I usually don't put much stock in his reports, but he seems really confident/in-depth with this one), Manish Mehta is saying that everyone in the top 10 knows that the Patriots want Baker Mayfield. He also says: The Jets are still divided about who to take at #3 They had Mayfield a tier below Darnold, Rosen, and Allen back when they made the trade up, but that may not be the case anymore Part of the reason the Jets traded up was out of fear that Buffalo would beat them to the punch The belief is that the Bills want Josh Allen (which obviously we already knew, but in conjunction with the Jets fear, I would guess that Allen was the leader in the clubhouse at the time of the trade at least)

The way I see it, the Rams were screwed in a couple years anyways when they'll likely be paying Gurley, Goff, and Donald roughly $70 million per year, so they might as well push their chips in for these next couple of years and hope that it's worth the pain and suffering that will come in the future.

Good for him. He probably won't get a shot to start there even if Flacco struggles, but who knows? It's not like Flacco is good.

There's still plenty of time for that to change. Buffalo has only slotted people in for like 4-7 of their 30 private workouts so far.

This guy is probably just a special-teamer right?

We'll see what happens on draft night but my guess is that Rosen is #4 on the Jets list.

I prefer Kiper's for Buffalo personally

There's definitely some similarities between Lauletta and Jimmy, but the sentence about his resume being equal to Jimmy isn't really accurate. Lauletta was awesome at Richmond, but Jimmy threw for over 5,000 yards and 50 TDs his senior year.

He's the #1 WR in the draft IMO

I'd be incredibly disappointed if he's the only QB that Buffalo drafts, but I'm still kinda intrigued by Chase Litton as a late round flier. His accuracy makes Josh Allen look like Drew Brees, but you don't find many guys in college with the combination of physical tools and ability to make adjustments at the LOS that he does.

His numbers are pretty similar to Carson Wentz with the exception of the completion percentage. On a per game basis during their two years as starters: Wentz: 207 yards, 1.8 TDs, 0.6 INTs Allen: 201 yards, 1.8 TDs, 0.8 INTs If you normalize their numbers for the same number of pass attempts (for ***** and giggles, I extrapolated it as if both of them threw the same number of passes as Dak Prescott this season; he was 16th in the league in pass attempts)... Wentz: 4,123 yards, 36 TDs, 12 INTs Allen: 3,822 yards, 34 TDs, 16 INTs The numbers aren't identical but they're pretty freakin close, and Allen played against a higher caliber of competition than Wentz did. People shouldn't be so scared of a player's completion percentage IMO. YPA is much more important, and while Wentz is still better in that regard, it's a difference of 0.6 yards per attempt and if you want to be optimistic and focus on Allen's sophomore year, his YPA was actually better than Wentz.

I'm guessing it's either 7 for 12/56 or possible more because this trade probably only happens under two scenarios: 1. Saquon and Nelson are both gone, which probably means one of the top QBs is sitting there and Buffalo pays a premium to move up for them 2. The Bills move up to 7 before the draft begins so that they can jump up one more time, in which case Buffalo pays a premium to convince Tampa to not bother sitting there to see if Saquon/Nelson are available.

That’s pretty interesting. I don’t really trust Schultz though.

If I remember right, the question he was answering specifically asked about #7 rather than Beane bringing it up himself I would imagine at least 12 and one of the 2nd founders. Probably only happens if Saquon/Nelson are off the board already too.

The Bucs part is almost certainly true. Their GM pretty much publicly stated that he's been talking to a lot of teams about sliding down from #7 and implied that a QB would likely be taken in their slot in that scenario.

Let me start by saying that the people making a big deal about him asking his coaches why are dumb. But considering that obviously everyone in the draft is a millennial, I think it goes without saying that they mean Rosen is basically the stereotypical millenial whereas Darnold supposedly isn't. This quote is a bigger deal than the "Why" BS IMO