DCOrange

Was hoping to see more progress with his footwork...seems like all his bad habits are still there (which is probably to be expected this early but I was still hoping anyways). Seemed to throw a more accurate ball last night than usual despite the same footwork flaws though. He still reminds me a lot of Cam Newton, which makes me very excited. Really happy with the playcalling from Daboll. Makes me wish we had him last year; I never understood playing Tyrod while transitioning away from the shotgun handoffs that Buffalo excelled so much with under Tyrod/Rex

I cant watch the video at the moment but is the one you’re referring to the play that happened in the end zone? If so, that was ruled defenseless receiver rather than the new helmet rule.

Not to detract from the Reid argument that appears to have taken over this thread, but I think people are making a bigger deal out of the Mahomes INTs than it should be. Rodgers has also thrown 7 INTs in 5 practices and he's a pretty decent QB IMO.

For those that are reading through this thread but didn't catch the game last night, someone compiled a video of the penalties last night (though I believe the last two were actually called for defenseless receiver penalties rather than the new helmet rule but the commentators didn't realize that).

I wish Tampa would return to being a good team again, but I went with the Falcons. I think Carolina ends up in last place though.

5 wins could be enough to pick top 5 (it was this past season) and yes, I think 3-5 wins is absolutely a possibility this year. I'd lean towards 5 or 6 being where Buffalo ends up but I think it's more likely that they win 5 or less than it is that they win 7 or more.

Just doesn't make sense to me at all. Thankfully I doubt Beane sees it that way too.

I wouldn't trade a 1st for him. Obviously he's an awesome player, but if there's a chance the Raiders and Mack are splitting up next offseason, I'll take my chance on that happening and keep what I think is possibly a top 5 pick.

It seems like Kerley is basically a lock at this point, maybe moreso than Zay honestly.

The statistics basically say that the Bills would need to improve a significant amount this year to win 9 games again. I think they'll likely be a worse team this year than they were last year and last year's team probably wouldn't win 9 games again, so...yeah. We'll see though; obviously I'd like to be wrong about them; I'm just not as high on this year's team as I was last year's.

PFF ranked the Vikings as the #1 receiving corps in the NFL last year, saying: Diggs and Thielen were ranked #8 and #9 in the league this past season and I believe were both top 20 the year before. Edit: That's not to say that Buffalo can't slow them down. I think Buffalo's defense was pretty much average last year and I'm convinced they'll be better this season, but no doubt the secondary was very very good.

Even beyond that, all the indicators like record in close games, pythagorean wins, and point differential all suggest the Bills should be significantly worse next year before you even account for the changing of personnel.

Update to the OP: Barnwell has posted the article for the 6 most likely to regress: I got 5/6 right; the only one I got wrong was that he included Minnesota instead of Miami. http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/24228491/nfl-teams-most-likely-decline-win-fewer-games-2018-projections-schedule

Yeah, they stand out as one that he could be wrong about. It's basically because the numbers indicate that a team that played like Jacksonville did last year usually wins 12 games rather than 10, so therefore, if they play that well again this year, they're likely to improve. Seems very possible that it was just a flukey season though.

As I noted, the Bills aren't officially on the list yet. His article on teams most likely to regress is coming later this week, but I'd bet any amount of money that they will be featured in it. Literally every metric that Barnwell uses for these articles suggest a pretty sharp drop off this year for Buffalo. I should also note that of the 12 teams he mentioned in last year's articles, he was correct on 11 of them (Cleveland being the one he got wrong...he expected them to win at least 2 games last year). The prior year, he only made predictions for 6 teams, but he got all of them right, so he's 17/18 the past two years on this.

His 6 most likely to improve: Cleveland Jacksonville Houston LA Chargers Chicago Indy http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/24208950/nfl-teams-most-likely-improve-win-more-games-2018-projections-schedule My guess of who he'll pick as most likely to regress: Tennessee Buffalo Carolina Arizona Miami Pittsburgh Edit: Barnwell has posted his article of the 6 teams most likely to regress now: The only one I got wrong was Miami. He had Minnesota instead. http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/24228491/nfl-teams-most-likely-decline-win-fewer-games-2018-projections-schedule

That's not really true at all. It all depends on what you're looking for in game film. On his film, Allen showed all of the physical traits that trait-based scouts would love to have in a QB. The results weren't there consistently, but the physical abilities were very apparent. I imagine that scouts that liked Allen watched his film and thought "Wow, if we can clean up ______ and ______, this kid could be amazing."

What is Oakland's cap situation next year? Can they just franchise tag him?

I know it's perfectly normal at this point, but it's nuts to think that if he pans out, he'll be paid more on his 5th year option than all 4 years combined.

We shall see! I'm not convinced Edmunds will be an upgrade in Year 1 though he obviously has far, far more potential than Preston. The way I see it (solely for this season compared to last season): QB: downgrade RB: slight downgrade (another year of McCoy aging) and Ivory is only a slight upgrade as the backup IMO) WR: slight upgrade (hopefully a healthy Benjamin outweighs the "loss" of Matthews) O-Line: downgrade D-Line: slight downgrade (obviously he wasn't with the team the whole year, but we essentially swapped out Dareus for Star which is a significant downgrade and improved depth) LBs: ??? As I mentioned, I'm not convinced Edmunds is an upgrade as a rookie; he's just so young and inexperienced still. DBs: downgrade (Gaines > Vontae) As you can see, I'm pretty pessimistic in the short-term, but I'm also very excited about Allen, Edmunds, and the cap space moving forwards. And I think last year's team was roughly a 7 win caliber team, so being worse this upcoming year probably equals a top 5-10 pick IMO.

I'm not sure this is actually the course that the Rams plan on taking, but for awhile, I've been in the boat of "If you have an elite QB, pay him like one. If you have an above-average QB, let him walk and keep trying." There's no sense in paying a QB that's likely just average or above-average like Goff currently is (it's certainly possible he could improve and become worth re-signing) the kind of money it generally takes to keep them IMO; I'd much rather build the rest of the roster and hope to strike gold on a rookie salary scale QB than to lock myself long-term into QB play that probably will never be good enough.

It'll be fun to see if a win causes people to overreact (it almost always does). I think Baltimore is a pretty bad team, so I think it's completely possible that Buffalo wins Week 1 and goes on to have a bad season regardless. I'm not rooting for a bad season by any means; I just think the team is likely worse than it was a year ago, and I don't think last year's team was very good either despite sneaking into the playoffs.

-scratches name off list of free agent WRs for next offseason-

I doubt Buffalo goes for it, but I could logically see the thinking. Buffalo obviously has more money than they're likely to even be able to spend next offseason and a Bell deal could easily be structured in a way that it basically clears him out of the picture just in time to give Allen a huge extension (if he happens to warrant it at that time). Obviously a pursuit of Bell assumes that McCoy is gone. Bell is certainly a very, very special talent that can impact the game in a way most RBs cannot. I'm all for taking advantage of this time period where the Bills are being cheap on the QB position to build out the rest of the roster and lord knows this team needs some weapons.

I know Greg Gabriel is guessing he runs a 4.45-4.50 while Charlie Campbell is guessing a 4.56. NFL Draft Scout casts a much wider net, projecting him anywhere from a 4.44-4.64. I'd guess he's in the 4.55-4.60 range personally; in his highlights you can see him get chased down from behind by a guy that were clocked at a 4.55 at the NFL Combine and he just doesn't look all that fast to me whenever I watch video of him. I'm pretty pessimistic on AJ personally but we'll see; hopefully he continues to improve on his game this year. He catches way too much with his body for my liking/doesn't seem to high-point balls the way I would hope a slower, bigger WR would.