DCOrange

Thing is that was a different staff. They were connected to Allen because of Arians’ need for a guy that focuses on the long ball. That’s no longer needed, hence bringing in two guys that tend to lean on the short stuff in Bradford and Glennon. Nobody seems to know what to expect from the Cardinals now but based on the few dots that we have to connect, I would think the previous regime was much higher on Allen than the new one is (doesn’t mean the new regime doesn’t like Allen though). seems like Buffalo could wait a little longer to move up if things played out this way but I suspect that they’d consider it a win if they only give up one first round pick and get the guy I suspect they have at 1 or 2 on their board.

Darnold is the one that everyone always refers to as having the clutch gene. No idea what the numbers would suggest. I’d assume Mayfield since he was so dominant statistically.

For what it’s worth, the Bills O/U in Vegas is 6.5 wins

Obviously the draft can change things but I expect 5-7 wins which is basically the exact range Clay’s official predictions falls within. Think his predictions pegged Buffalo for 6 wins based on predicted point differential and that’s exactly where the Bills point differential ended up.

I'm pretty much locked in on Lamar Jackson. Darnold is my #2 QB in the class, and I'd love to have Allen or Mayfield too, but there's really no sense in trading up for one of them when Buffalo can get the guy I want the most at 12 (or maybe a tiny tick above 12).

I would say he's a very low upside pick. A team that's simply looking for a backup QB (ex: Tampa) might value him but I don't really see any reason for a team looking for a starter to do so.

Once the splits on his pass attempts start to resemble more of what you see in the NFL, I'd bet he's able to hit 60%. Hell, he might hit 60% just by playing behind a better O-Line. If you split up his numbers between under pressure vs. kept clean and then weight it as if he was kept clean as often as Mason Rudolph, Rosen is around 61%.

It looks a lot better when you trim the comeback down to 1:00 showing only the good/lucky plays. Rosen was not good in that game IMO. During the comeback alone, he had like 3-5 plays that would be easy turnovers in the NFL and that's not even getting into how he helped them to get into that hole in the first place. Rosen has plenty of games where he played very well, but this isn't one of the games I'd use if I'm trying to highlight him.

This is essentially what that new football league is doing, except I think it's just a 4th and 10 for them. "Namely, there will be no kickoffs. Teams will start with possession at their own 25-yard line. While this does eliminate onside kick attempts, teams can try to keep possession after they score. That team will be given the ball at their own 35-yard line, and will be given a fourth-and-10 to begin the “drive.” If the team converts the fourth-and-10, then the team will keep possession. If not, then the other team will gain possession." Personally, I think the idea makes a lot of sense (though I think 4th and 15 is probably better in terms of creating similar odds to converting an onside).

I wish I were confident that Buffalo likes him, but the only real hope is that they've orchestrated a fantastic smokescreen.

For whatever it’s worth, one of the Browns radio guys says he knows for a fact that the coaching staff doesn’t want Darnold. He says it’s down to Allen and Mayfield in their mind.

In this scenario, the person I'm responding to is saying that Rosen and Mayfield are a tier below Darnold and Allen. It absolutely is relevant. It's ridiculous to think that this year is so radically different from the past that trades that generally prove to cost 3-4 times more than the reward is suddenly a worthy investment now, especially considering the volume of options available this season. If anything, the argument should be that with as many options as this year's QB class has, trading up should be expected to carry even less value because the volume will likely push worthy draft picks down lower.

I'd be okay with a small trade up, but I'd prefer to stay at 12 rather than trading up for the #2 pick for example.

I imagine that NFL scouts don't view him as nearly the work-in-progress that fans do.

Assuming this is referring to me, my point is that Rosen, Mayfield, Lamar, etc. are all basically the same tier as Darnold/Allen while costing far, far less to acquire. History shows that trading up for the #1 or 2 QB almost never actually nets you the #1 or 2 QB and studies have shown that trading up based on the Jimmy Johnson chart that basically all teams follow is an incredibly poor decision. By trading up what it would require to get one of the top 4 picks you're trading picks that are worth far, far more than the actual value you're likely to get out of the pick. Perhaps the Bills will do so and luckily nail their pick, but history would suggest it's a very poor idea despite the occasional outlier. See the chart below for example that compares the value assigned to each pick by the Jimmy Johnson chart to the actual returned value of those picks.

People are scared of taking a guy in the top 10 that is generally viewed as a work in progress.

You really don't think we can count on at least 2 of the first 6 picks being non-QBs?

Of course, but there's countless reports at this point that a guy like Rosen is likely to slide, perhaps as far as out of the top 10 entirely. Certainly the Bills can get one of the top 5 QBs in the 7-12 range and there's a good chance they'll have multiple options depending on where in that range they settle in.

It makes perfect sense. Again, I'm not saying that Buffalo should wait until 2019 to trade up. I'm saying that due to how many good prospects there are this year, in my opinion, you can get a QB in the 7-12 range of the draft that's just as good a prospect as the one you're getting at #2 or #4. Basically all of the media scouts agree with that take; I'm not even remotely alone in that line of thinking. Regarding the hypothetical that it's impossible to trade up in a year where there are only a couple good QB prospects, that was disproven no longer than two years ago and the Luck draft proved it as well. But again, I'm not advocating that Buffalo should kick the can down the road and try to trade up another year. I'm saying that Buffalo can spend 2 picks to get a guy like Mayfield, Rosen, or Lamar in that 7-12 range versus spending 4 or 5 picks to get Darnold/Allen in the top 4. I don't think the latter group is worth 2-4 times more than the former group.

Yeah, obviously I would hope that if they trade up into the top 4, it's because they disagree with the way draft pundits have graded the QBs this year and that they believe _____ is easily a better option than the #4 or 5 QB. Edit: As I said in my original comment, I don't personally believe a trade up that high is wise this year so obviously that's based on how I personally feel about the QBs. I'd much rather invest one or two picks in Lamar or Mayfield or Rosen than investing 4 or 5 of them in Darnold. I'm not saying that they should pass on QB this year and trade up in a future year instead. I'm saying that IMO, Lamar/Mayfield/Rosen are on par, if not better than Darnold, so why would I want to spend two or three times as much capital on Darnold?

In a year where there's only 1 or 2 good QBs, I think it makes sense. In a year where, for example, I think the gap between QB#1 and QB#5 is non-existent, it doesn't.

I simply don't think trading up to the top 4 this year is wise.

New Dolphins jerseys are really nice. The Jags are just beyond lame, but the helmet change is such a dramatic upgrade that it makes the overall jersey an upgrade.

I hope so, but I don't have much faith that the Bills want him in all honesty. I'd love to find out that all of the attention they've given other QBs was just a smokescreen, but it seems unlikely.

It's possible that they simply think they can evaluate OLine on tape rather than bringing them in and putting them in front of the whiteboard.