DCOrange

Mayfield has now become the betting favorite in Vegas to go #1 after it being Darnold basically the entire year.

He reportedly filled the front office/coaching staff in on who the pick is yesterday.

I’m hoping for better than a potentially injury prone Eli, but um, you could do a lot worse than being pretty certain you’re getting an above average starter.

Assuming you’re referring to Derwin James, some people think he could be a LB in the NFL

Not a good look but this is nothing like the Tunsil stuff that was going down. On a related note, who was that guy that got accused of murder or something the night of the draft and went from 1st round to undrafted?

I think we should keep in mind that even if we don’t end up with the QB each of us prefers, it appears extremely likely that Buffalo will have the most physically talented QB it’s had in a decade or two. Tomorrow should be a very exciting night.

Besides the big arm, Mahomes and Allen aren’t all that similar IMO. Mahomes was somewhat undersized, smallish hands, uber productive and Mayfield-esq in terms of being kinda frenetic in the pocket. I think he’s more similar to Mayfield honestly. Cardale simply wasn’t a good prospect. Its possible that Peterman and McCarron aren’t the preference; they simply were the best remaining options. I admit you might be right about the Peterman/McCarron angle though. Although I don’t think Peterman was an accurate passer in college either; he really wasn’t good at anything in particular.

I for one am happy to see them pick Allen over Rosen, though the fact that Rosen and Lamar slid to 15 and 16 respectively would annoy me.

I don't want to get to 2 either

Trading next year's 1st would be a nightmare IMO

So we can now mark down two QBs that reportedly worked out or met with the Bills that are now saying they never did.

He absolutely did. Roughly 3-5 times per game and that's not even counting RPOs and other QB Keepers that they ran.

I've seen this posted a few times, but it's very strange because Barnwell posted an article roughly a week ago that laid out all the numbers and found that while Allen did indeed attempt 30.7% of his passes under 5 yards, that was significantly lower than Darnold, Baker, or Rosen, who were all between 38-40%.

I like Allen personally, but regarding the idea that you need to add 6-10% to Allen's completion percentage due to how few screens, etc. he threw, if you take Allen's splits and normalize it based on the target distribution that Josh Rosen had (who threw it short more often than anyone else), it only bumps Allen's completion percentage up to 58.3%. Normalizing everyone's numbers based on Rosen's pass distribution, you get (this is based on their career numbers rather than just this past year): Baker: 70.5% Darnold: 65.9% Rosen: 60.9% Lamar: 58.7% Allen: 58.3% Unrelated, I looked at the splits between passers when kept clean versus when pressured and then normalized their 2017 numbers as if they were pressured as little as Rudolph was (who was protected better than any of the other top 6 QBs) and doing so gave me these numbers: Baker: 71.1% Rudolph: 65.1% Darnold: 64.2% Rosen: 63.5% Lamar: 60.8% Allen: 60.6%

Depends on the cost, but I prefer Allen over Rosen personally.

Allen isn't the runner that Cam is but he can still be a good read option guy. Beyond that, he has roughly the same physical build, same ability to shake off tackles, similar arm strength (though Allen's is better), similar issues with footwork, and similar ability to make throws with velocity without stepping into the pass.

12. Lamar Jackson 22. DJ Moore 53. Uchena Nwosu 56. Josh Sweat 65. Nathan Shepard 96. MJ Stewart

It's a little low, but I think the usual number is around 20 give or take.

My point is that the idea that Allen busts = front office overhaul isn't the case with just Allen. It's likely the case with whatever QB the front office ties itself to. The idea that the Pegulas would fire Beane if Allen busts but not if Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield, Lamar, Rudolph, etc. bust makes no sense.

Josh Allen never played against Colorado and his completion percentage was never 53%.

This is probably the case no matter which QB they take

I’d be okay with Rudolph at 96.

I'm relatively low on Rosen (have him as my #5 QB), but I don't really buy the lack of winning argument personally. The guy led one of the best offenses in the country despite having WRs that dropped a lot of passes. I agree on basically all the other stuff though.

It's possible that Buffalo lied, but I think the assumption is that Buffalo told Tampa that they'd make a trade if Baker is on the board at 7.

Presumably he got excited and tweeted it out and then his source said he was only telling him under the condition that he keep it to himself or something.