DCOrange

I've used Sunday Ticket's streaming service the last couple years, but I just can't do it anymore. Way too much buffering and sometimes low quality video for my liking; I did a trial of HeheStreams this preseason and it is absolutely incredible how much better it is IMO.

It's possible, but outside of the rookies, it's not like these players are unknown. They've clearly gotten worse on the O-Line for example. All three levels of the defense could go either way IMO. Same with WRs and RBs and the QB play will almost certainly be worse this year. I think the best hope is that Daboll might be a huge upgrade over Dennison.

It was considered overachieving because basically all of the stats suggest that the Bills are ripe for a major regression to the mean. They were a huge outlier team last year. It's not impossible for them to be an outlier again, but it's pretty rare.

It's really sad to see this. Can't help but think that it's just a matter of time before he seriously hurts someone. I hope someone is able to help him.

This is pretty close to how I feel. I have Cleveland pegged for 6-8 and Buffalo for 4-7, so there's some overlap where Buffalo could end up with more wins, but I'd lean towards Cleveland personally.

Tough break for the Redskins to be stuck with him

I agree that I'm not ready to throw in the towel on the run defense yet. I do think it could be an issue though, especially if Star is more like the player I think he is rather than the one that McDermott apparently thinks he is. Looking back at last season, specifically in regard to the run defense: Buffalo allowed 4.3 yards per carry if you include all 17 games that they played, tied for 7th worst in the NFL. If you exclude the 3 game horror show that they had as well as the blizzard game that simply didn't resemble real football, they allowed 4.1 yards per carry, which would have tied for 14th in the NFL. If you then eliminate the plays that Dareus was on the field for (54 carries for 136 yards), the Bills would have allowed 4.4 yards per carry even after eliminating the awful stretch. 4.4 YPC would have tied for 5th worst in the NFL. So even without counting the the awful 3 game stretch that the defense had, the run defense was still among the worst in the NFL last year.

158 yards or so on 29 passes so far. At this point he looks like the Jets 3rd best QB at the moment IMO. Having said that, all 3 appear to be serviceable which is obviously a nice problem to have.

I think it's probably this way with a lot/almost every NFL team, but as someone that's currently going through "High Powered Organizations in the 21st Century" training this week, watching the way the Browns operate is such a shock to the system; they pretty much go against everything that you learn about how a well-functioning organization should be run.

I don’t expect Buffalo to do it but I think DeSean Jackson could be had relatively cheap, like a mid round pick. Supposedly he’s looking at being the #4 WR in Tampa this year and that’s without accounting for the TEs that will be very involved too.

Just based on watching their preseason games and not what I thought of them before, I’d go: 1. Baker 2. Allen 3. Darnold 4. Toss-up between Rosen and Lamar 6. Rudolph with a big dropoff after Darnold

Was hoping to see more progress with his footwork...seems like all his bad habits are still there (which is probably to be expected this early but I was still hoping anyways). Seemed to throw a more accurate ball last night than usual despite the same footwork flaws though. He still reminds me a lot of Cam Newton, which makes me very excited. Really happy with the playcalling from Daboll. Makes me wish we had him last year; I never understood playing Tyrod while transitioning away from the shotgun handoffs that Buffalo excelled so much with under Tyrod/Rex

I cant watch the video at the moment but is the one you’re referring to the play that happened in the end zone? If so, that was ruled defenseless receiver rather than the new helmet rule.

Not to detract from the Reid argument that appears to have taken over this thread, but I think people are making a bigger deal out of the Mahomes INTs than it should be. Rodgers has also thrown 7 INTs in 5 practices and he's a pretty decent QB IMO.

For those that are reading through this thread but didn't catch the game last night, someone compiled a video of the penalties last night (though I believe the last two were actually called for defenseless receiver penalties rather than the new helmet rule but the commentators didn't realize that).

I wish Tampa would return to being a good team again, but I went with the Falcons. I think Carolina ends up in last place though.

5 wins could be enough to pick top 5 (it was this past season) and yes, I think 3-5 wins is absolutely a possibility this year. I'd lean towards 5 or 6 being where Buffalo ends up but I think it's more likely that they win 5 or less than it is that they win 7 or more.

Just doesn't make sense to me at all. Thankfully I doubt Beane sees it that way too.

I wouldn't trade a 1st for him. Obviously he's an awesome player, but if there's a chance the Raiders and Mack are splitting up next offseason, I'll take my chance on that happening and keep what I think is possibly a top 5 pick.

It seems like Kerley is basically a lock at this point, maybe moreso than Zay honestly.

The statistics basically say that the Bills would need to improve a significant amount this year to win 9 games again. I think they'll likely be a worse team this year than they were last year and last year's team probably wouldn't win 9 games again, so...yeah. We'll see though; obviously I'd like to be wrong about them; I'm just not as high on this year's team as I was last year's.

PFF ranked the Vikings as the #1 receiving corps in the NFL last year, saying: Diggs and Thielen were ranked #8 and #9 in the league this past season and I believe were both top 20 the year before. Edit: That's not to say that Buffalo can't slow them down. I think Buffalo's defense was pretty much average last year and I'm convinced they'll be better this season, but no doubt the secondary was very very good.

Even beyond that, all the indicators like record in close games, pythagorean wins, and point differential all suggest the Bills should be significantly worse next year before you even account for the changing of personnel.

Update to the OP: Barnwell has posted the article for the 6 most likely to regress: I got 5/6 right; the only one I got wrong was that he included Minnesota instead of Miami. http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/24228491/nfl-teams-most-likely-decline-win-fewer-games-2018-projections-schedule

Yeah, they stand out as one that he could be wrong about. It's basically because the numbers indicate that a team that played like Jacksonville did last year usually wins 12 games rather than 10, so therefore, if they play that well again this year, they're likely to improve. Seems very possible that it was just a flukey season though.