DCOrange

I wish Tampa would return to being a good team again, but I went with the Falcons. I think Carolina ends up in last place though.

5 wins could be enough to pick top 5 (it was this past season) and yes, I think 3-5 wins is absolutely a possibility this year. I'd lean towards 5 or 6 being where Buffalo ends up but I think it's more likely that they win 5 or less than it is that they win 7 or more.

Just doesn't make sense to me at all. Thankfully I doubt Beane sees it that way too.

I wouldn't trade a 1st for him. Obviously he's an awesome player, but if there's a chance the Raiders and Mack are splitting up next offseason, I'll take my chance on that happening and keep what I think is possibly a top 5 pick.

It seems like Kerley is basically a lock at this point, maybe moreso than Zay honestly.

The statistics basically say that the Bills would need to improve a significant amount this year to win 9 games again. I think they'll likely be a worse team this year than they were last year and last year's team probably wouldn't win 9 games again, so...yeah. We'll see though; obviously I'd like to be wrong about them; I'm just not as high on this year's team as I was last year's.

PFF ranked the Vikings as the #1 receiving corps in the NFL last year, saying: Diggs and Thielen were ranked #8 and #9 in the league this past season and I believe were both top 20 the year before. Edit: That's not to say that Buffalo can't slow them down. I think Buffalo's defense was pretty much average last year and I'm convinced they'll be better this season, but no doubt the secondary was very very good.

Even beyond that, all the indicators like record in close games, pythagorean wins, and point differential all suggest the Bills should be significantly worse next year before you even account for the changing of personnel.

Update to the OP: Barnwell has posted the article for the 6 most likely to regress: I got 5/6 right; the only one I got wrong was that he included Minnesota instead of Miami. http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/24228491/nfl-teams-most-likely-decline-win-fewer-games-2018-projections-schedule

Yeah, they stand out as one that he could be wrong about. It's basically because the numbers indicate that a team that played like Jacksonville did last year usually wins 12 games rather than 10, so therefore, if they play that well again this year, they're likely to improve. Seems very possible that it was just a flukey season though.

As I noted, the Bills aren't officially on the list yet. His article on teams most likely to regress is coming later this week, but I'd bet any amount of money that they will be featured in it. Literally every metric that Barnwell uses for these articles suggest a pretty sharp drop off this year for Buffalo. I should also note that of the 12 teams he mentioned in last year's articles, he was correct on 11 of them (Cleveland being the one he got wrong...he expected them to win at least 2 games last year). The prior year, he only made predictions for 6 teams, but he got all of them right, so he's 17/18 the past two years on this.

His 6 most likely to improve: Cleveland Jacksonville Houston LA Chargers Chicago Indy http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/24208950/nfl-teams-most-likely-improve-win-more-games-2018-projections-schedule My guess of who he'll pick as most likely to regress: Tennessee Buffalo Carolina Arizona Miami Pittsburgh Edit: Barnwell has posted his article of the 6 teams most likely to regress now: The only one I got wrong was Miami. He had Minnesota instead. http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/24228491/nfl-teams-most-likely-decline-win-fewer-games-2018-projections-schedule

That's not really true at all. It all depends on what you're looking for in game film. On his film, Allen showed all of the physical traits that trait-based scouts would love to have in a QB. The results weren't there consistently, but the physical abilities were very apparent. I imagine that scouts that liked Allen watched his film and thought "Wow, if we can clean up ______ and ______, this kid could be amazing."

What is Oakland's cap situation next year? Can they just franchise tag him?

I know it's perfectly normal at this point, but it's nuts to think that if he pans out, he'll be paid more on his 5th year option than all 4 years combined.

We shall see! I'm not convinced Edmunds will be an upgrade in Year 1 though he obviously has far, far more potential than Preston. The way I see it (solely for this season compared to last season): QB: downgrade RB: slight downgrade (another year of McCoy aging) and Ivory is only a slight upgrade as the backup IMO) WR: slight upgrade (hopefully a healthy Benjamin outweighs the "loss" of Matthews) O-Line: downgrade D-Line: slight downgrade (obviously he wasn't with the team the whole year, but we essentially swapped out Dareus for Star which is a significant downgrade and improved depth) LBs: ??? As I mentioned, I'm not convinced Edmunds is an upgrade as a rookie; he's just so young and inexperienced still. DBs: downgrade (Gaines > Vontae) As you can see, I'm pretty pessimistic in the short-term, but I'm also very excited about Allen, Edmunds, and the cap space moving forwards. And I think last year's team was roughly a 7 win caliber team, so being worse this upcoming year probably equals a top 5-10 pick IMO.

I'm not sure this is actually the course that the Rams plan on taking, but for awhile, I've been in the boat of "If you have an elite QB, pay him like one. If you have an above-average QB, let him walk and keep trying." There's no sense in paying a QB that's likely just average or above-average like Goff currently is (it's certainly possible he could improve and become worth re-signing) the kind of money it generally takes to keep them IMO; I'd much rather build the rest of the roster and hope to strike gold on a rookie salary scale QB than to lock myself long-term into QB play that probably will never be good enough.

It'll be fun to see if a win causes people to overreact (it almost always does). I think Baltimore is a pretty bad team, so I think it's completely possible that Buffalo wins Week 1 and goes on to have a bad season regardless. I'm not rooting for a bad season by any means; I just think the team is likely worse than it was a year ago, and I don't think last year's team was very good either despite sneaking into the playoffs.

-scratches name off list of free agent WRs for next offseason-

I doubt Buffalo goes for it, but I could logically see the thinking. Buffalo obviously has more money than they're likely to even be able to spend next offseason and a Bell deal could easily be structured in a way that it basically clears him out of the picture just in time to give Allen a huge extension (if he happens to warrant it at that time). Obviously a pursuit of Bell assumes that McCoy is gone. Bell is certainly a very, very special talent that can impact the game in a way most RBs cannot. I'm all for taking advantage of this time period where the Bills are being cheap on the QB position to build out the rest of the roster and lord knows this team needs some weapons.

I know Greg Gabriel is guessing he runs a 4.45-4.50 while Charlie Campbell is guessing a 4.56. NFL Draft Scout casts a much wider net, projecting him anywhere from a 4.44-4.64. I'd guess he's in the 4.55-4.60 range personally; in his highlights you can see him get chased down from behind by a guy that were clocked at a 4.55 at the NFL Combine and he just doesn't look all that fast to me whenever I watch video of him. I'm pretty pessimistic on AJ personally but we'll see; hopefully he continues to improve on his game this year. He catches way too much with his body for my liking/doesn't seem to high-point balls the way I would hope a slower, bigger WR would.

I would guess that her lawyer is saying: 1. She's never technically been a squatter because she's never unlawfully lived somewhere. The lawyer would argue she's always had a legal case for living where she lives. 2. That McCoy has never personally asked her to leave; hence all the references to other people doing things for him (i.e. a non-lawyer submitting legal papers to a minor, McCoy's mother taking things from the house without McCoy ever talking to Cordon, etc.

FTFY.

Cliff notes: Summary of the instagram/facebook posts that we all know about already Statement from Cordon's lawyer where he says the attacker demanded specific items that McCoy had also been requesting/hinting could be stolen Police statement that the attack was not random, but a specifically targeted attack McCoy had filed eviction papers roughly a year ago, but eventually he had the order dismissed as he and Cordon patched things up McCoy then had eviction papers filed again roughly one month ago; Cordon's lawyer says that this was illegally done because the papers were signed by McCoy's friend (who is not allowed to practice law) and the papers were served to a minor: Cordon's son. McCoy was in Miami at the time of the attack, so he could not have personally carried it out (though Cordon has not accused him of this anyways) Cordon claims that McCoy had their security cameras removed and replaced by a new system that only he had access to. McCoy claims that Cordon had the security cameras removed (not sure if this is referring to the new system McCoy had installed or the original system) In the aftermath of the attack, Cordon's son was missing. The window in his bedroom was open with a bedsheet tied and draped down the side of the house. The attacker walked out the front door, so either this window part is completely unrelated (maybe her son snuck out his room the night of the attack and it had nothing to do with anything at all) or this could have potentially been how the intruder got in. I'm guessing it's the former. Cordon says the neighbors have cameras, so they might have a view of the attacker, though she also says he was wearing all black and a mask. Seems to me that the only way they'll be able to identify the attacker is if they have a view of his license plates or if there's some physical evidence at the scene. Police released reports regarding all the other times they were called to the house. In July of 2017, they came to the house to find piles of clothing and stuff on the ground; Cordon had apparently followed McCoy to Vegas and caught him cheating and they were breaking up. At this time, McCoy mentioned that jewelers often loaned them high-value jewelry to wear at events and that Cordon hadn't returned some of the items. He also told Police that he was nervous about being around Cordon because of the climate of domestic abuse in the NFL. At this time, Police informed McCoy of the eviction process that they would have to go through. In April, Police arrived once again after hearing a heated argument over the phone, during which McCoy was trying to remove Cordon's belongings. By the time Police arrived, things had calmed down and they had worked things out between themselves. In June, Police arrived once again after Cordon called to inform them that McCoy was having her possessions removed again. When Police arrived, it turned out that it was McCoy's mom who had shown up to pick some things up for McCoy. The disagreement was regarding some furniture which both McCoy and Cordon viewed as their own personal property. The furniture was left at the house. They were supposed to show up in court on July 10th, but it was delayed to August 14th due to a medical emergency in Cordon's family (I think initial reports said it was her lawyer's family though; not sure which is true)

Yeah, there's just something weird to the window thing. Maybe there's a logical explanation for it but it seems to me that there's a couple possibilities: 1. The attacker had been inside the house already at some point (maybe some sort of contract work where he also scoped things out) and left the son's window cracked to come back later on and used this as both the entry and exit point for the attack. 2. The son is involved in some way. 3. The attacker was able to waltz right in through the front door, but for some reason decided to grab a bed sheet, tie it something, and use that window as his exit point for no real good reason. It just seems very strange to me, but if they have video surveillance of the outside of the house, that should help a lot.