DCOrange

Yeah, this has always blown my mind too lol.

http://walterfootball.com/nflhotpress/article/Teams-Project-Jonah-Williams-in-Mid--to-Late-Round-1

Breakdown of one of my favorite WRs in the draft class. Would love to target this guy on Day 2 or early Day 3 depending on where his draft stock is by April. https://thedraftnetwork.com/2018/12/19/video-content-stanleys-morgan-vertical-route-running/

I don't know why people are even mentioning Aaron Donald as a possibility. There's no way that a defensive player on a below average defense is going to win the MVP award. We went through this with JJ Watt already, who had a far stronger case for it IMO. Oddshark has it right; it's Mahomes or Brees with an outside shot of Rivers and a super outside shot of Luck.

Martez Carter from the Saints practice squad.

For those wondering why catches + drops doesn’t equal catchable targets, watching Zay today was a good example of it. He really struggled to make contested catches.

I still don’t really trust his hands or ball tracking at the moment but he’s so freaking fast and is able to stop on a dime that he’s a really tough cover for anyone 1 on 1 right now. He and Levi were the two undrafted guys that I was at least moderately excited about. Both have looked good so far.

I said that McCoy is paid like a top 3 RB and is not that level of player anymore and you asked if I was sure about that. At any rate, we'll have to agree to disagree on McCoy being good still. Even ignoring the O-Line, he's simply not as elusive as he used to be. His elusiveness rating has dropped off from being elite early in his career to simply being good/great for a few years and has now been flat out bad for the past 2 years. Ivory, on the other hand, has been more successful in terms of making people miss, which is part of the reason that Ivory is ranked 22nd by PFF while McCoy is ranked 52nd out of 63. McCoy is dead last in DVOA versus Ivory being 29th out of 40, and Ivory is 30th in success rate versus McCoy being 36th. Pretty much everything out there suggests that Ivory is better than McCoy at this point and Ivory is at best a below average starter. The O-Line was relatively fine last year and McCoy still ranked among the worst qualified RBs in the league in all those categories with the exception of PFF where he rated as a below average starter.

And if he is, then it's only a wash of an investment. That's the whole point. Having the 2nd pick in the draft is a gigantic asset to be used at a position where you can actually extract value. Paying an elite QB backup QB money for example is life-changing for an NFL franchise. Taking Bradley Chubb there and having him pan out would be a great value. Taking Saquon and having him pan out is basically a net-zero investment. He's already being paid like an elite player whereas taking a QB, pass rusher, corner, etc. at that spot would be paying them like an average or below average starter.

Also for those that think defenses just stack the box against him, he faces 8+ in the box less than most other RBs do. He's 37th out of 54 qualifying RBs in terms of how often he faces 8+ in the box.

I don't think anybody would argue that Barkley isn't a good player. The issue is that if he's a top 10-15 RB, which is basically the highest you'll see him rated by any metric, he's underperforming relative to his contract. The Giants took the most valuable asset in football and punted on it.

My login for PFF isn't working at the moment, but I think Lindsay ranks ahead of Saquon in PFF Grade, DVOA, and Run Success Rate. It's definitely debatable who has been better as a rookie and the Broncos guy provides insanely better value.

Even if Barkley were the best RB prospect in NFL history, I wouldn’t take him at #2. The Giants are paying Saquon roughly 1,200% more than the Broncos are paying their rookie RB and the Broncos arguably have the better player. The Giants would have been far better off taking a QB, Chubb, Denzel Ward, or basically anything other than Barkley.

Yeah, I can't see Robinson or Star being cut personally. I fully expect DeSean Jackson to be. He's just too expensive for what his role is in Tampa at this point. Evans and Godwin are a great 1-2 combo and Tampa can free up $10 million by cutting DeSean. The ones that I'm personally interested in are: Robinson (but like I said, I highly doubt he gets cut) Kenny Stills Marvin Jones Demaryius Thomas And not super interested, but I could see Buffalo bringing in a veteran presence like Pierre Garcon if he's cut. I'd be fine with taking a shot on Devante Parker too.

Am I sure that McCoy is no longer a top 3 RB in the NFL? Yes. Are you actually questioning that? I honestly didn't think anyone would object to that at this point. If you think McCoy is still an above average starter, I can at least understand that even if I don't personally agree, but I don't think anyone in their right mind can argue that he's a top 3 RB anymore.

You're trying way too hard here. Obviously Allen is not an exact clone of Tyrod. Tyrod was a running QB who took deep shots but didn't force passes. Allen is currently a running QB who takes deep shots and does force passes. That is the comparison. And the comparison is being made because Tyrod was, based on PFF, QBR, etc., performing as roughly an average starting QB and Buffalo decided to move on to find a guy that was presumably more of a pure passer, which has made the comparison even more fun to look at because Allen has been the opposite so far. The other rookies were all replacing career backups (McCown & whatever the Browns had last year), guys that retired (Palmer), or were forced to play due to injury (Flacco/Lamar) so the comparisons for them aren't remotely as interesting.

Yeah, I mean, I personally think Star was a waste of a contract and I would love to hit the undo button on it, but I don't at all foresee Buffalo cutting him after one year and I don't think it really makes sense financially to do so either. They mention in the article that they think he might have been the worst FA signing of the offseason though. It seems like they think the Bills would simply improve by not having him on the team. Mills is a free agent

Yes and no. I think pretty much everybody would agree that at this point in time, the teams that took QBs are happy with their guys because they're showing flashes of what got them drafted. That's really all we're looking for. Barnwell wasn't going for that; Barnwell was trying to determine if they're playing well relative to other starting QBs, which for the most part, they are not. And to also discuss how they're progressing (though I didn't really get much of that in the article). I think it's fair and accurate to say that Allen has not been as good as Tyrod was. I also think it's fair and accurate to say that it doesn't matter right now because we really care how Allen is playing two years from now rather than right now.

Spotrac published a list of players that they think could potentially be cut in the offseason and provided some notes about whether or not they really think it's realistic that they could be cut, cap ramifications, etc. It's sorted by position so it's pretty easy to scroll down to the guys you want to read about. https://www.spotrac.com/research/nfl/potential-2019-nfl-roster-bubbles-819/ Of note, the WRs discussed: Allen Robinson Mohamed Sanu Demaryius Thomas DeSean Jackson Kenny Stills Devante Parker Michael Crabtree Marvin Jones Pierre Garcon Cameron Meredith Travis Benjamin Allen Hurns Willie Snead Bills players discussed: LeSean McCoy Chris Ivory Charles Clay Star Lotulelei

The Bills moved on from what was viewed as a roughly average starting QB after making the playoffs, and they moved on from Tyrod to a guy that's playing basically a more aggressive style of what Tyrod did. The fact that Bills fans clamored for Buffalo to move on from Tyrod because they wanted more of a passer and they have subsequently ended up with a QB that is currently more dependent on his running ability than Tyrod ever was makes for an interesting comparison between the two. The Jets moved on from a bad journeyman QB. The Cardinals moved on from a guy that retired. The Browns moved on from a collection of horrific QBs. The Ravens are running a completely different style of offense with Lamar vs. Flacco so it's difficult to really make any comparison whatsoever. It's probably more accurate to compare Lamar to guys like Kaepernick and Tyrod, which is what he did.

It means that he's being counted on to make plays with his legs like Tyrod but he's not protecting the ball or throwing it as well as Tyrod did. It's not really that complicated. I don't think he means that they're identical players and that Allen won't develop at all, but it's pretty simple to look at the fact that Allen is literally replacing Tyrod, and like Tyrod, is currently a running QB and make that comparison. At the moment, Allen doesn't compare well to Tyrod statistically but obviously the hope is that that changes as he gains more experience. As Barnwell pointed out, Allen and Tyrod both threw pretty deep on average, with Allen averaging 10.5 air yards per throw versus Tyrod's 9.0, but Tyrod completed a far higher % and did so while protecting the ball far better than Allen has. The hope of course is that Allen will progress, which Tyrod never did, and Allen has certainly shown some improvement since returning from injury so hopefully that continues. But just because comparing Allen to Tyrod is "lazy", doesn't mean it isn't an apt comparison to make right now, and I think pointing out that Allen hasn't been as good as Tyrod was is an accurate statement at the moment, even if it's not really important in the grand scheme of things since obviously we're concerned with what Allen becomes rather than what he is right now.

I think, and I could be wrong here, that he's probably comparing Allen to Tyrod because Allen is replacing Tyrod. The fact that he happens to be running more often than Tyrod ever did only makes the comparison more obvious. There aren't many QBs in the league that run a significant enough amount to really compare Allen to and it just so happens that one of them is the guy that he's replaced.

I went with Nagy because I think the way he's covered up for Trubisky's weaknesses is just tremendously impressive. I think Reich and Reid would be #2 and #3 for me.

The article literally includes clips that he took while watching the Bills games.