DCOrange

I think your latter point is more important in reference to Allen honestly. Progression isn't a linear thing. Allen looked promising as a rookie IMO, though still easily below average compared to all starting QBs; you're counting on him progressing to become anywhere near the player that Mahomes is right now and that progression isn't something that we can safely assume will happen. If Mahomes simply plateaus at his current playing ability, he's a future hall of famer and perennial MVP candidate. Do I think Mahomes would be the same player he is today if Buffalo had drafted him instead? It's hard to really say; personally, I had Mahomes pegged as the best QB prospect since maybe Andrew Luck (possibly beneath Jameis/Mariota instead, but I can't say that with certainty as I didn't assign number grades back then. Suffice to say, I always believed Mahomes had the goods to be an elite QB so while I'm certainly a bit shocked at how quickly he's ascended there, I think he had that potential regardless of where he was drafted and I think his playstyle allows him to rely less on the talent around him than most QBs do (I'd argue this is the case with Allen too btw). He probably wouldn't be in the MVP conversation if he were in Buffalo because his numbers likely wouldn't be as good, but I think he might still be an elite QB with MVP potential if Buffalo were able to add a couple more pieces.

I think there's at least a chance that Jameis gets a huge contract in Tampa. I don't really foresee that at this point with Mariota, mainly because he can't stay healthy, but he also hasn't been very productive even when he is healthy. I don't envy the position either of those teams are in though. In my opinion, the worst QB situation to be in is having to pay a guy you know is an average-ish starter $20+ million per year. In that situation, I'd rather kick them to the curb and take my chances with a cheap vet and the draft. I imagine that if Jameis has another solid season, he'll get paid though; he already owns basically every passing record in Tampa's history and he's only a year older than Baker Mayfield.

Agreed. I loved Allen as a prospect, not as much as I did Mahomes, but I don't see any reason yet to think Allen can't become a great QB. Obviously in retrospect Mahomes is already there though and while Allen has that potential, it's always a very small percentage chance of actually happening. Bills certainly didn't come away looking awful with the trade, but I do think they'd prefer the more certainty that Mahomes represents right now.

I mean, Mahomes is about to be named the MVP in his first season as a starter; I think the writer is probably correct that Buffalo would take that in retrospect.

For what it's worth, Matt Miller rated Gary as the best pass-rusher in the class at DT. Seems odd considering he's had 9.5 sacks combined in 3 years, but yeah.

Palmer played 25 games for Oakland; it seems silly to only look at roughly half of them. In Cinci, Palmer threw INTs on 3.1% of his passes, and that ballooned to 3.4% in Oakland. Jameis has thrown INTs on 3.0% of his passes, so yes, Palmer was more INT-prone than Jameis was pre-Arians. And again, I don't know why you would focus on just one season for Jameis when he's now played four years in Tampa. During that time, he has thrown 88 TDs to 58 INTs, which still isn't great but it's significantly better than Palmer's 35/30 split in Oakland. Looking at Palmer Pre-Arians, he put up 189 TDs to 130 INTs, which is a worse ratio than Jameis. Palmer was also worse in terms of TD%, INT% (as I already mentioned), ANY/A, QBR, and passer rating. Edit: Obviously this doesn't mean that Jameis will now turn into a borderline MVP candidate like Palmer did under Arians, but Jameis is basically in the same exact spot as Palmer was before he linked up with Arians, except Jameis is almost 10 years younger.

If you're looking for strictly the top 5 or 6, I would guess (in no particular order): Haskins, Lock, Daniel Jones, Kyler Murray are the easy choices and then I think there's another group of Brett Rypien, Will Grier, and Jarrett Stidham.

As I mentioned, Palmer put up 35 TDs to 30 INTs in Oakland. Jameis has 88 TDs to 58 INTs in Tampa. Jameis has undoubtedly been better in Tampa than Palmer was in Oakland, and probably better than Palmer was in Cinci too. It wasn't until he got to Arizona and was coached by Arians that Palmer learned how to protect the ball; up until then, he was more turnover prone than Jameis (at least in terms of INTs).

Their actual 40 times almost always turn out slower than their reported times in the offseason, but he supposedly ran a 4.38 during Oklahoma's winter workouts last year. Seems like he's expected to comfortably be in the 4.4's.

Not just first rounder. A lot of teams seem think he’s potentially the first QB taken which means we’re talking top 5-10

Jameis has often been compared to Big Ben (though obviously Ben has been better as a pro), was once upon a time viewed as the best QB prospect since Luck (obviously hasn't panned out that way in the NFL), and you could argue that he's been better in the NFL than the version of Carson Palmer that Arians acquired in Arizona. When Arians got his hands on Palmer, Palmer was coming off two years in Oakland where he threw a combined 35 TDs to 30 INTs. Palmer was like 6 or 7 years removed from his last great season before he showed up in Arizona.

The Dirk Koetter special. Afraid your OC who seemed to be doing well with your rookie QB would leave, so you promote him to be your new HC. Obviously they'll hope this works out better than it did in Tampa.

I don't think all that highly of Rosen, so I don't think trading him and taking someone else is the worst idea in the world, but there's no way they would do it for just a 4th round pick. They would probably require a 1st round pick if someone wanted Rosen. I also personally think Rosen was a better prospect than Haskins is, so I wouldn't personally subscribe to this plan. But I know most people seem to be higher on Haskins than I am.

Fitz is a free agent. Arians took the Bucs job because he loves Jameis (and also the Bucs GM).

Just for context because I was curious about this myself: for the past few years, Buffalo has gone into training camp with at least 12 WRs on their roster (obviously this is before cutting guys). Buffalo currently has 8 under contract for next season (I would guess they bring all of them into training camp but I guess we don't know that for sure), so at minimum, we have room for probably at least 4 more WRs to sign this offseason between free agency, the draft, and UDFA.

They’ve already announced that Jameis will be their starting QB next year and Jameis was one of the main reasons Arians wanted the job.

Between the two, I’d prefer Hollywood. But neither one is in my top 5 WRs for this class.

Bucs traded a 6th round pick to Arizona for a 7th round pick and the rights to Arians. You can probably have Gerald McCoy, Vinny Curry, and maybe Jason Pierre-Paul if you're lucky. I would guess they plan on building around Vita Vea, Lavonte David, and Kwon Alexander.

I would say the reason for getting rid of him is the same reason that teams shouldn't sign him, Flacco, Foles, etc. Paying below average to average starting QBs $20-25 million per year (in Tannehill's case, it would actually be more than that if Miami keeps him) is the worst place to be in football IMO. I'd rather sign someone cheap like Fitzpatrick and draft a rookie and pray than to invest that much of your salary cap in players that you know aren't good. If Tannehill, Foles, Flacco, etc. are your best option as a starting QB, I think you should just invest that money in other positions and go cheap at QB and hope you strike gold.

Nick Bosa, because it means we traded up.

I think Tampa wants to get rid of DeSean regardless of if he buys in with Arians or not. I don't think either the player or the team are happy with him being there. They'd probably rather use that cap money to re-sign Adam Humphries but they might just let both of them go since they have Evans, Godwin, OJ Howard, and Brate if they keep him.

Some potential cut candidates: Bortles: $9.5 million if cut with June designation DJ Hayden: $3.5 million post-June Sefarian-Jenkins: $4.4 million Hyde: $4.7 million Dareus: $10.5 million All of them besides maybe DJ Hayden are locks to be gone at this point and those moves free up roughly $29 million, giving them roughly $22 million to use between free agency and draft picks to fill like 10 roster slots, most of which won't be expected to be starting caliber players. Again, if they simply don't think Jackson is worth the money anymore, they should cut him. But if they think he's worth the money, they can probably afford to keep him.

Arians loves Jameis; that's one of the reasons this pairing was so obvious beyond the fact that the GM and Arians are good friends.

I understand the situation, but they have a lot of other players they can cut without necessarily cutting Malik Jackson. If they simply don't want him anymore, then yeah, obviously they'll cut him, but they can get out of their cap troubles pretty easily without moving him. Dareus, Sefarian-Jenkins, Barry Church, Bortles, one of their WRs or CBs. They can all be cut and save a lot of money without necessarily cutting two DTs. They still very well might just want to get rid of both anyways but I don't think it's a definite that they cut Jackson.

I grew up in Rochester, but have lived outside of DC for the past few years now. I don't care about the Redskins at all. I actually grew up a Tampa Bay Bucs fan but I always went to Bills training camp and rooted for Buffalo on the side and then became more of a Bills fan after I moved away because it's given me an easy way to stay connected with my family (all Bills fans). So at this point, I'd say I'm a Bills fan who roots for Tampa on the side. I'm completely indifferent to the Redskins.