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Everything posted by DCOrange
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Reading tea leaves: Bills trade down with NYG or OAK
DCOrange replied to Estro's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
I don't think Brown slipping to 40 is out of the question. He's not really someone I want Buffalo to take anyways, but I definitely wouldn't be on board in the top 15. -
I like him but I'm not really sure what his upside is. Seems like he's really freakin good at contested catches, specifically fades, but he didn't really do much else at Stanford. As far as athleticism, granted it was a pro-day so take a grain of salt, but he ran a 4.49 40. Definitely didn't look that fast on tape though.
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https://theathletic.com/909149/2019/04/08/dane-bruglers-mock-draft-5-0-projecting-all-seven-rounds-and-all-254-selections/ Bills Picks: Buffalo Bills1 9 DL Rashan Gary2 40 OT Kaleb McGary3 74 WR J.J. Arcega-Whiteside4 112 TE Josh Oliver4 131 RB Trayveon Williams5 147 CB Kris Boyd5 158 LB Ben Burr-Kirven6 181 DS Ugo Amadi7 225 OG Fred Johnson7 228 PT Mitchell Wishnowsky
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First game starts at 8:12. Second game starts at 59:30. He doesn't really do anything in either outside of getting pushed around by the one guy that was his size and having a nice spin move at one point. He’s #12.
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Eh, I've watched some of his scrimmages in the U.S., he didn't really show any post game at all and outside of like a 10 foot fadeaway jumper where his mechanics were not good, he didn't attempt any jumpshots much less any 3 pointers and that was against some pretty terrible competition lol. I'll be pleasantly surprised if he turns into a player for us; big men often take longer to develop so maybe things will click into place once he's on campus. But I don't say this lightly, I've never been less impressed with a Syracuse player's high school film than I was with Edwards.
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I'm personally not high on him, but hopefully he proves me wrong and becomes a big piece for us in the future!
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In order, my preferences are: 1. Ed Oliver 2. DK Metcalf 3. Trade Down 4. Christian Wilkins 5. Trade Up for Quinnen And of the options listed, my LEAST preferred options (excluding the "Other" categories) would be Trade Up - Josh Allen, TJ Hockenson, and Jawaan Taylor in order from least preferred to most preferred.
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They look fine to me except for the black one
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Let's have a way too early Win Projection
DCOrange replied to foreboding's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
There's almost always a surprise loss and a surprise win. For me, the surprise win is Pittsburgh, surprise loss is Miami on the road. I think Baltimore is likely better than Buffalo and view Denver as being roughly the same tier (unless Allen makes a big leap in Year 2 which can't be ruled out). -
Let's have a way too early Win Projection
DCOrange replied to foreboding's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
I don't really view it as an easier schedule. We're swapping out: Jaguars - bad Colts - good Texans - meh Packers - meh Vikings - meh Bears - good Lions - bad Chargers - good for Cowboys - good Eagles - good Giants - bad Redskins - bad Browns - good Steelers - good Bengals - bad Broncos - meh And I think the Jets improvement and Dolphins decline are roughly a wash. Also figure McCoy's decline likely continues, and while the Bills have upgraded pretty significantly offensively, it's still probably among the worst group of weapons in the league and a roughly average OLine with solid depth. -
Let's have a way too early Win Projection
DCOrange replied to foreboding's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Haha, I'm sorry to be that guy. I just don't want to bake in a huge improvement from Josh Allen. I love him and certainly hope he makes the leap this season, but that's the only way I see the records that everyone else seems to be predicting right now. I may feel differently depending on how the draft works out. -
Let's have a way too early Win Projection
DCOrange replied to foreboding's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Home: Dolphins - win Patriots - loss Jets - win Ravens - loss Bengals - win Eagles - loss Redskins - win Broncos - loss 4-4 Away: Dolphins - loss Patriots - loss Jets - loss Steelers - win Browns - loss Giants - win Cowboys - loss Titans - win 3-5 7-9 overall record -
For a good laugh, take a look at last year's Mocks
DCOrange replied to Da webster guy's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
It's because fans are obsessed with learning about who their team might end up with and aren't patient enough to just wait and see. -
For a good laugh, take a look at last year's Mocks
DCOrange replied to Da webster guy's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
I had 6 exactly right and 1 (Josh Allen) where I had him going to the Bills but had us trading up to 10 to get him rather than 7. -
Will the Bills move up for Quinnen Williams?
DCOrange replied to Rebel101's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
I am pretty much always on the "do not trade up" bandwagon. Quinnen is the only guy this year that makes me remotely consider it. Best prospect in the draft and best DT prospect to come around since at least Suh if not Sapp IMO. -
As one poster alluded to already, Tyre Brady is the one for me. I have him ranked as the #4 or 5 WR in the class. I also would like Matt Colburn, RB from Wake Forest, as a UDFA. I don’t expect him to be drafted but he’s a talented all around back IMO. Darwin Thompson (Utah State) and James Williams (Washington State) are two other RBs that probably go around the 5th or 6th that have some promising tape and numbers. Lastly, I like Jonathan Ledbetter from Georgia as a big DE prospect and CB Derrick Baity from Kentucky if he lasts that long. Edit: I don’t feel as passionately about them as I do Tyre Brady, but two other WRs I like late in the draft are Jamal Custis (Syracuse) and Olamide Zaccheaus (Virginia). FWIW, my deep sleepers last year were Levi, Josh Adams (started down the stretch for Philly), Trey Quinn (expected to start for Washington this year), Martez Carter (don’t think he stuck on anyone’s roster), and Luis Perez (I think someone will scoop him up this offseason now that AAF is over). I say all this to say that I’m probably due to be wrong about all these guys this year lol
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Duke is good and all, but without restructuring his contract, you're paying a guy starting caliber money in 2019 to likely be marginalized with McCoy and Gore playing and then paying him like a roughly top 10 RB after that. It's pretty steep for a guy that's probably best suited as a 3rd down back. Didn't he want to move to being a slot WR last we heard from Duke or am I misremembering that?
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It's really just semantics, but I would argue that a slam dunk 1st rounder =/= a first round grade; it's something more than that IMO. And I agree that "anyone who is in the top 32 on my big board is a first round grade" is wrong. That shouldn't be the case every season. But just logically speaking, if the idea of a first round grade is truly based on being a first round caliber pick, then in the very least, the original year that that grade was introduced should have had the same number of first round grades as there were first round picks since you were literally creating the idea of a first round caliber prospect around that year's draft. Anyways, it doesn't really mean anything; I just always get sort of a chuckle out of everyone saying there's only roughly 20 first caliber players in the draft every single year.
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Which Prospects Do You NOT Want The Bills To Draft?
DCOrange replied to BillyWhiteShows's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Of the guys that seem to be on the radar at #9, there aren't a lot of guys I'd be unhappy to have. My main thing is that I do not want to trade up; the only player that I think is semi-defensible to trade up for is Quinnen Williams, but even that would be tough for me. If we stay at #9, the one I'm most wary of would be Greedy (just because I don't think we really need him) and TJ Hockenson (I think he's a good prospect but much like RBs, taking a TE in the top 10 just isn't good value. 10-3 Kentucky seems like a weird inclusion on this list, especially considering they barely even pass the ball so to record sacks against them is impressive. Looking at Sweat's game log, it looks like roughly 56% of his sacks came against good offensive teams or teams like Kentucky where they were good overall teams that generally didn't throw the ball much. Compare that to someone like Nick Bosa who had fewer sacks and only around 47% of his sacks in 2017 would have fallen into one of those two categories. Per PFF, if we look at guys that are projected to go in the first couple rounds of the draft, Sweat ranks #2 or #3 in pass rush productivity depending on if you think Jaylon Ferguson is a 1st or 2nd round pick (which is probably in question after his testing numbers). Sweat is also #1 in run stop percentage even if we include the entire draftable database regardless of where they're expected to be drafted. -
This isn't a shot at you, just always something I've found interesting. Literally every draft analyst seems to say the same thing; that they've never had 32 first round grades in a draft. I feel like by that logic, the definition of a 1st round grade is too strict. For the concept of a first round grade to work, there should be some draft in the history of scouting that had 32 first round grades. If that has never actually occurred, then I don't think that is really a first round grade; it's something with a higher threshold than that. Again, not a shot at you and I don't mean that every draft should have 32 of them; I just think we're mislabeling the grades if there's never been a draft with 32 first round grades (or 30 or however many teams there were when people first began doing this). Anywho, good work on the mock. I'd love the Oliver pick. I won't bother nitpicking until we get closer to the draft
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Vegas has win totals for next year
DCOrange replied to DBilz2500's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Brings back memories from a few weeks ago when people were giving me crap for saying the over under would probably be 5.5-6.5. -
UB Nate Oats leaving to go to Alabama
DCOrange replied to Reed83HOF's topic in Off the Wall Archives
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Just on the off chance that this is a legitimate question, Oats is already gone. He is Alabama's coach now.