DCOrange

New WR spots (change from last version in parentheses, + means they moved up the board, - means they moved down): 2. Marvin Harrison Jr. (0) 3. Rome Odunze (0) 4. Malik Nabers (0) 17. Brian Thomas Jr. (-1) 25. Adonai Mitchell (+8) 34. Ladd McConkey (+8) 39. Ricky Pearsall (+9) 41. Xavier Worthy (0) 43. Troy Franklin (-6) 45. Keon Coleman (-9) 47. Malachi Corley (-3) 49. Roman Wilson (+1)

I don't want to put words in his mouth, but I'd guess if he's saying he's not in his top 8 WRs, he's probably shortly after that, which in this class likely means he likes him a decent amount. Just not at 28.

My real guess would be that we trade up for Thomas or pass on WR at 28. If we have to go WR and it has to be at 28, my guess right now, as much as I would not like it, would be Xavier Legette. I think at 28 (again limiting just to WRs), it's likely a decision between Legette, Coleman, and McConkey and my guess would be that's the order they have them in.

McConkey played out wide a lot more than Pearsall did, but I think Pearsall is probably in the same boat where he might be able to play out wide but might be better suited to the slot. He was close to a 50/50 split this past season between lining up out wide vs. the slot and he was mainly playing outside at the Senior Bowl practices.

It's not about how old he'll be on his rookie contract; it's about the fact that he literally didn't do anything in college until he was a very old (for a college player). The track record for WRs like that is historically atrocious. People can say if he was 21 instead of 23, he'd be a top 10 pick, but he was 21 once upon a time. He had 63 yards that season.

I think taking emotion out of it, this was an obvious move. Really sucks that he couldn't stay healthy.

Hopefully means 3-4 new WRs coming in this offseason. A man can hope.

It's the same deal as Mitchell. They both just flat out don't run their routes an alarming amount of the time, cut routes off early, give zero effort blocking, etc. And it isn't just when the plays are being run to the other side of the field. This is obviously bad just in general, but it's especially bad to pair that up with a QB like Allen who extends plays and tries to find guys to throw the ball to on the run.

I should add that I think including 2018 would mean adding DK Metcalf to the list, so it's not impossible to be good despite this. And even then, 2018-2023 isn't exactly a huge sample.

The staff initially thought he'd return around the holidays this season, but he suffered another setback. At this point, it'll be going on two years since he played in a competitive game; he's a very talented player and I know the staff is very high on his skillset, but I think we have to basically treat any contributions he gives us as a bonus at this point. Last I heard, we have no plans to bring in a guard through the transfer portal, so probably planning to just roll with Quadir, JJ, Copeland, Cuffe, and Elijah Moore as ball handlers. Sounds like our main focus in getting a legitimate center, which makes a ton of sense but it'll be interesting to see how we make the roster work with Maliq and Freeman both best at PF. Freeman will almost certainly be starting, so is the plan to demote Maliq to make room for a center or are we talking about more of a depth C rather than a legitimate starter? Not sure.

I do think we could definitely improve our offensive spacing by subbing Judah out for a better shooter, but he's by far our best scorer right now and probably our best creator for teammates too. Not an easy guy to replace.

If we could just get Judah to stay one more year, I feel like next year's team could be awesome. Going to have to hope for more improvements from Quadir/JJ and or maybe some portal luck. Donnie Freeman is probably the first kid to come here in a decade where he's pretty much a no-brainer NBA player unless he literally doesn't improve at all.

It’s possible but I’m not sure I buy that, especially considering Mitchell already played for one of the best coaches in the country/one of the biggest hardasses and still loafs around. Ultimately it’s up to Buffalo to try to figure that out in their interviews but actions speak louder than words. I wouldn’t blame them for taking the chance on one of them. Just isn’t a risk I’d be willing to take in the first round personally. I think once you get past the top 4 WRs, they all have either serious red flags or are perceived to be relatively low ceiling options, so we'll have to take a risk on something. Efforts a tough one for me though.

The game this year against Washington is not in the All 22 database I have access to, but I did watch Mitchell when he played for Georgia in the playoffs and it was the same deal. Part of why I'm kinda skeptical that he was coached to do that at Texas. He was doing it at Georgia while McConkey for example played his ass off.

They both take a lot of plays off.

It isn't listed in PFF's premium stats, but their draft guide includes "Open Target %". Of course many factors can influence this such as the routes they're running, the coverage they're facing, etc. It's easier to get open finding a soft spot in a zone vs. working open against man coverage for example. If you're running a ton of crossers across the middle, you're bound to run into traffic more often than a curl route against soft coverage. If you're the focus of the defense, you'll probably have a harder time getting open than the #3 target on your team. Having said that, here's where everyone ranked: Name Open Target % Tahj Washington 89% Malachi Corley 86% Jordan Whittington 86% Lideatrick Griffin 84% Xavier Worthy 84% Jacob Cowing 83% Ladd McConkey 82% Brian Thomas Jr. 80% Jalen McMillan 79% Malik Washington 79% Troy Franklin 77% Marvin Harrison Jr. 77% Jamari Thrash 77% Ricky Pearsall 75% Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint 73% Devontez Walker 73% Jermaine Burton 72% Xavier Legette 69% Brenden Rice 66% Malik Nabers 64% Ja'Lynn Polk 64% Rome Odunze 61% Adonai Mitchell 58% Ainias Smith 56% Keon Coleman 53% Johnny Wilson 51%

While his time was disappointing, it's so close to a 4.3; he probably would have been in the 4.3's if his technique was slightly better. He's still very fast. The weight was definitely disappointing and the gauntlet drill was really bad.

I don't think those exact dimensions have ever been done before but Devonta Smith (6'0" 175) and Jordan Addison (5'11" 173) are close. Guys his size generally do not blow up in the NFL and guys with his speed generally do not blow up in the NFL, so he'll be an outlier if he's good. He's definitely talented though, and I say that as someone that does not want him lol.

Would you feel good if our first round pick matches Bobo’s 196 yards as a rookie? Wicks was solid as the #3 in GB this year.

Of the guys I've watched film on so far, I would say Keon Coleman, Ricky Pearsall, Ladd McConkey, Jacob Cowing, and then maybe Brenden Rice and Roman Wilson. And absolutely not to Adonai Mitchell and Xavier Worthy. Hard to say with Brian Thomas and Troy Franklin as Thomas' QB never really bought time outside of the pocket to throw and Franklin's threw the ball so quickly there were very limited opportunities for these sorts of extended plays.

It's tough to say statistically because the sample sizes are always small when you're talking about contested targets. For example, over the last two years, Marvin Harrison Jr. had the most contested targets in the draft class with 60 combined between the two seasons. For plays that are already sort of coin flips by nature, you'd really like to see a larger sample to draw conclusions from. Having said that, the guys at 50% or higher in terms of catch % on contested targets are (highest to lowest): Cornelius Johnson Tahj Washington Casey Washington Luke McCaffrey Rome Odunze Bryson Nesbit De'Corian Clark Hayden Hatten Jermaine Burton Javon Baker Ja'Lynn Polk Malik Nabers Brian Thomas Jr. Marvin Harrison Jr. Malik Washington Zakhari Franklin Moose Muhammad III Roman Wilson If we limit it to guys that had at least 20 contested targets over the two years, you're left with: Luke McCaffrey Rome Odunze Hayden Hatten Javon Baker Ja'Lynn Polk Malik Nabers Marvin Harrison Jr. Malik Washington Zakhari Franklin Some of the WRs that people have talked about in general for this class that don't make the list: Troy Franklin - 46.7% Tez Walker - 45.2% Xavier Legette - 44.0% Keon Coleman - 43.5% Brenden Rice - 42.9% Jacob Cowing - 41.7% Ricky Pearsall - 40.9% Adonai Mitchell - 40.0% Xavier Worthy - 29.4% Jamari Thrash - 29.0% Malachi Corley - 28.6% In terms of going up and high pointing the ball in traffic, Odunze, Baker, and Polk definitely pass the eye test in addition to the numbers.

Sure, but he ran more pass routes this year than every other WR in the class besides the Odunze and Polk and was still below average in terms of yards. He was near the bottom of the class in terms of targets/pass play and yards/route run too. Other guys that played with talented teammates: Nabers, Thomas, Franklin, Harrison, McConkey, Rice, Tahj Washington, Odunze, Polk, McMillan, Worthy, etc. all above him in that regard, most of them significantly above. Keon Coleman is the only other guy that was in a similar situation and had similar struggles but he at least produced decently well on a per snap basis before he transferred to Florida State.

Correct. It's based on how many times we scouted them in person/who was in attendance. It makes sense that a school like Michigan (played more games than everyone else, had more NFL talent than everyone else, played against top notch Big 10 schools, and is a shorter flight for us to get to) would be at the top. I'd like to know more about where the points are coming from in some of these cases. For example, did we go specifically to scout Iowa (in which case, you can probably deduce that DeJean is a target) or were they simply playing against Michigan?

Shakir was good this season, no doubt. He didn't do much against man coverage though; his target rate against man was extremely low and he wasn't very productive when he was targeted. I think most of the slot guys that are projected to go in the first two days and a few day 3 guys of the draft project better against man coverage than Shakir currently is/Shakir projected in college. Shakir dominated against zone coverage this year, which is obviously still very valuable but we have a need for guys that can beat man coverage and that can come both out wide or in the slot. Edit: I would add, Ladd McConkey's college metrics are very similar to Shakir's metrics this season. McConkey was #3 in the class in Targets/Pass Play and #2 in Yards/Route Run against zone, but #38 and #19 in those two metrics against man. Guys that shined in both of those metrics against man coverage and are likely slots in the NFL: Malik Nabers (could play anywhere but he obviously is out of reach barring a gigantic trade), Malachi Corley, Joshua Cephus, Malik Washington, Anthony Gould, Roman Wilson, and if we focus on 2022 instead of 2023, you could add Jacob Cowing and Jalen McMillan to the list as well.

His measurables this weekend were enough for me to bump him ahead of some of the guys that I had tied with him in terms of grade, but honestly, it kinda leaves me questioning him more if anything. With his hands, routes, and being on paper one of the best athletes of all-time, why did he struggle so much to produce in college at multiple schools? It doesn't really check out. I think some of it can unfortunately be explained away by the fact that he looked like he wasn't really trying on an alarming number of his snaps, but even when he did try, he didn't produce as much as someone with his profile should have. Very strange evaluation.