DCOrange

I agree that it’s a relatively disappointing class. Just think teams will reach on corners as they tend to do. I personally like Byron Murphy, especially as a team fit in Buffalo, but I couldn’t really find a good landing spot.

Not that I'm anyone special, but I put together a mock each year where I try to guess where the trades will be and everything and have published my final mock for this season here: https://draftqbs.wordpress.com/2019-mock-draft/ It doesn't include my rationale in the post itself, but I'd be happy to explain any choices that you might have questions about. Edit: May need to make alterations with the Montez Sweat news. Still reading up on it to figure out if it's really believable or just smoke on draft day.

Want: Oliver/DK get: Brian Burns

Stanley Morgan

I think Hollywood is a fine prospect, but he's not among my top 5 WRs and I don't think he's a particularly good fit here.

Pick #1: Dalton Risner, OL, Kansas State Pick #2: Mike Edwards, S, Kentucky

I would rather take guys that have shown they can be productive NFL WRs rather than taking a QB and hoping he can learn a new position. This WR class is just way too deep to consider McSorley as a WR. Probably at least 40 WRs I’d take before him.

Devil's advocate though: Hollywood was so good at creating separation in college...if he creates that same separation in the NFL, it increases the margin for error arguably as much as having a large catch radius does.

MMQB with a pretty lengthy article about the guy that they believe is the biggest sleeper in the class. They won't reveal his name until after the draft, but it's Drew Forbes, OG, from Southeast Missouri State. https://www.si.com/nfl/2019/04/23/nfl-draft-most-overlooked-small-school-sleeper-prospect?utm_source=reddit.com

Yes but that same logic applies to TE. They've hosted just as many TEs as WRs on official visits (based on the assumption that Hockenson was brought in) and like Metcalf, Hockenson is the only one projected to possibly go in the top 10. The other TEs are nowhere near as highly rated as the WRs are; nobody would be shocked if Harry, Brown, or Deebo are taken in the first round. Pretty much everybody would be shocked if Knox, Sternberger, or Wesco were taken in the first round.

Sure but that will be the case no matter what they do at #1. 49ers are adding an elite defensive lineman no matter what and Arizona is not taking an offensive lineman at #1. If they are as high on Murray as people believe, they think he'll be able to get rid of the ball or evade Bosa/Quinnen/Allen.

Hollywood is probably a slot in the NFL; very possibly a mismatch nightmare in the slot, but a slot nonetheless and Buffalo now has Beasley and possibly Zay in the slot. DK would be lining up at the X, where Buffalo doesn't currently have anyone that fits well. The foot injury and size concerns are both legitimate concerns with Hollywood too (granted the neck injury may be a concern for Metcalf as well).

I'm not sure it really makes sense to eliminate WR or CB just based on the number of official visits either; it makes sense that they'd bring more WRs and CBs in for visits considering (1) they're still potentially viewed as a need, and more importantly, (2) you generally have 3 or 4 WR/CBs on the field on most plays versus, for example, one TE. The CBs that were brought in were not 1st round prospects, so that can probably be safely ruled out, but in regard to WR for example, he eliminates WR from the list and keeps TE despite the fact that he believes 4 WRs and 4 TEs were brought in for official visits. So again, you're talking about a position where there's generally 3 or 4 times as many WRs on the field as there are TEs and yet we spent more visits on TEs, so based on this, the conclusion would seem to be that Buffalo is being more selective with WRs than they are with TEs. Of those visits, all 4 WRs are considered to be 1st round picks or fringe 1st round picks. The TEs, with the exception of Hockenson, are all considered to be Day 2 or Day 3 prospects. And yet Turner argues that it's the WR position that's being evaluated for depth rather than the TE position. I don't really follow that logic. It seems to me that if we're eliminating WR, we should also eliminate TE based on the same logic.

His list of options at #9 is based specifically on the rationale that every first round pick Beane has made has been someone that came in for an official visit. The senior bowl meetings, combine meetings, etc. do not matter for that part of the article. He even makes sure to bold it so that readers can't miss it:

That may be, but they also brought Allen to Buffalo for an official visit which is what Turner is basing his list of possibilities off of.

The workouts that Turner is referring to would have taken place in Buffalo so you're talking about something else.

Presumably some DE in there, but I think Edmunds could and should take some of those snaps once Lorax is gone.

I don't necessarily think it's wise to draft another LB so high despite believing that taking advantage of Edmunds' versatility would be better than simply playing him at MLB, but having said... I did my best to determine the snap counts from the 3 LBs when all 3 were healthy and it looks like when all 3 were healthy, they played the following percentage of defensive snaps (ignoring special teams): Edmunds: 99% Milano: 90% Lorax: 52% So while Lorax was obviously used significantly less, he was still playing over half the defensive snaps. So again, I don't necessarily think it would be wise to take another LB that high, but they could still make it work with Edmunds, Milano, and White/Bush all playing the majority of snaps. Other thoughts on the article: It's a good read, but as others pointed out, kinda weird that he just assumes Hockenson came in for a visit so that he can make him the choice while still fitting the main criteria, which is that every player they've drafted in the 1st has come in for an official visit. It is very likely that Hockenson has been visiting with teams on the down low, but we simply don't know who those teams are. It might include the Bills but it might not.

Would love for Metcalf to be the pick. We'll see. Ultimately I think it's him, Wilkins, Burns, or Gary. I think the relative lack of smoke around DK given the Bills WR need and Beane's draft tendencies is interesting to me.

Quinnen is obviously a lock to be gone at #9 and Allen and Oliver are both very likely to be gone as well. My guess is that the Bills don't necessarily want Jonah or Hockenson that high in the draft anyways, so it wouldn't be a bad thing if someone else takes them before us.

I personally think Gore is better than McCoy at this point in their careers and think whoever the Bills could realistically draft would have a chance of being an upgrade as well, so I'd personally rather just have McCoy off the team at this point.

Theoretically, they could forego the FB position and carry 4 RBs, or simply cut one of the 3 guys they currently have under contract. All of their contracts (tbd on Yeldon but probably a safe assumption) can be cut for decent savings. McCoy is the obvious choice to me but I don't REALLY believe he or Gore get moved.

I'm torn between my personal hope that McCoy is traded/the fact that we now have three veteran RBs and still seem like we should draft one vs. the fact that Gore seemingly signed with Buffalo so that he could play with McCoy. Would love to see Buffalo trade McCoy for something, but I don't really see it. Kinda wonder if one of these RBs ends up getting cut in training camp.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/04/22/nfl-mock-draft-fmia-peter-king/ A couple noteworthy items to me: He has joined the chorus of NFL reporters projecting Ed Oliver to the Jets at #3, though he notes that on the surface, he doesn't seem like an obvious fit in the 3-4 that Gregg apparently intends to run. He says most teams have Quinnen Williams as the #1 prospect in the draft. Projects that the Dolphins trade a 3rd rounder for Josh Rosen and says that nobody has studied Rosen more than the Dolphins. Has Haskins as the #2 QB taken, but it's all the way down at #15. He has Clemson's DTs, Wilkins and Dexter Lawrence going #13 and #14 respectively. Says that Miami will likely value Wilkins highly given Flores' connection to the Patriots and the Patriots belief in 315+ pounders with quickness. DK goes #30 in this mock to the Packers. He believes that at least 3 teams in the 20's want RB Josh Jacobs and that someone will likely trade up for him to get ahead of the other teams in the 20s.