DCOrange

I would have thought a 2nd for Sanders or AJ is a pretty high price and they're both significantly better than Sanu. Having said that, I'm sure at this point New England is just happy to have a WR that they can depend on to physically be on the field and play a role so maybe they actually preferred Sanu.

Yeah, Allen was terrible against New England, but he was at least playing QB. Darnold looks like he’s trying to help New England field fly balls for baseball season.

They’ve allowed like 1 passing TD to 18 INTs this year. They could play this version of the Jets each week and those numbers would still be insanely impressive.

If he's hurt he's hurt but there's really no reason to assume he'll be injured. And both Lamar and Allen have completed their passes at about the rate you'd expect given their passing profile. Lamar is creating a ton of plays every week and is leading the #1 or #2 offense in the NFL right now. Granted it's been a relatively easy schedule thus far but again, he's the biggest reason his team is winning games right now and the biggest reason they're scoring a lot of points. Point is, you said Baltimore wouldn't be winning games if not for their defense. Their defense has been average at best while Lamar has pioneered arguably the best offense in the league so far this season. He is quite literally the main reason Baltimore is winning their games. That absolutely cannot be said about Allen right now and I say that as someone that thinks Allen is playing fine for the most part and really likes him as a prospect. He simply isn't on Lamar's level right now.

Lamar (and Roman/Harbaugh) is easily the biggest reason Baltimore is winning games this year. That's why he's in the MVP race and Allen is not.

It's all significant. A coach that isn't willing to go for it in obvious situations is costing his team games and ultimately probably putting a ceiling on what the team can accomplish. Obviously the culture is important too and McDermott had that part in spades from the get-go but without the former, I'd probably be looking for a new coach.

They were actually lower on her chances than basically anybody else. I think by election day they were giving her roughly a 67% chance of winning compared to most of the other projections being in the 80-90% range. Like I said, I enjoy looking at them as just another data point. Just because something has a less than 50% chance of happening and then happens doesn't mean they were wrong. It just means the unlikelier outcome occurred.

This is exactly how I view it as well.Think that's probably my exact order too. I've always loved McDermott's leadership that he's shown since he first arrived, but I questioned some of his gameday decisions to the point that it made me question if he was the right guy. I think he's developing those skills pretty nicely though. Still has some issues, but in particular, he seems to have learned to adapt some analytics into his decision making on 4th downs, field goal/TD decisions, etc. that have me really gaining confidence in him.

Yep, I agree with that for the most part. My view of the QBs that bring a lot of running to the table has generally been that you still have to be able to pass (duh), but that if you're a very good runner, it increases your margin for error as a passer (i.e. the way it plays out in actuality is that it'll likely be easier to find holes in the defense due to the defense needing to expend more resources on stopping their running ability). I'd say that this applies to guys that are the level of runner that Josh Allen is, but Lamar is in a completely different class in that regard. He's legitimately as good a runner as probably like a top 10ish RB and is also throwing the ball like an average starting QB. I'm sure a couple teams will be able to play him very tough defensively (New England comes to mind), but with Roman's running schemes, Lamar's vertical passing ability, and Lamar's elusiveness within the pocket, he's turning into a very, very difficult QB to stop. He was IMO the best QB prospect in his draft class and he seems to be developing faster/more than a lot of people expected of him.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-nfl-predictions/games/?ex_cid=rrpromo Understood that some people roll their eyes at 538, but I always enjoy looking at them as another data point. They currently project the Bills' chances to win each upcoming game as follows: Vs. Eagles: 58% Vs. Washington: 81% @ Cleveland: 51% @ Miami: 70% Vs. Denver: 72% @ Dallas: 36% Vs. Baltimore: 49% @ Pittsburgh: 52% @ New England: 21% Vs. Jets: 68% Technically that gives us a 12-4 record if every game goes according to projections but I'm guessing they end up at 11 for their projections due to how many of those games are viewed as roughly 50-50. That all adds up to a 78% of making the playoffs at the moment, the 4th highest chances in the AFC behind only New England, Kansas City, and Baltimore. In terms of winning the Super Bowl though, they have Buffalo with the 6th best chances in the AFC and 13th best odds in the league.

His route running is nothing special, but to be fair, nobody could move well on that field yesterday. It wasn't an epic mess like the Washington-San Fran game was, but players were slipping and sliding all over the place. For a guy that already isn't great at changing direction, he had no chance at it yesterday. And even with relatively sloppy route running, I don't think he's easy to cover at all, and I think that's what defenses have found out so far this year. His size/speed combo puts pressure on the defense on every snap. It's honestly amazing. Lamar is hovering around 5th-10th in the MVP race right now and people are actually still trying to say he can't play QB in the NFL. If Josh was playing nearly as well as Lamar has this season, we might be viewed as one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl this year with the defense we have.

Oh sorry, I could have sworn it said Winston, Mariota, and Fitzpatrick before for some reason lol. Anywho, you're right, they clearly don't think Baker has been bad. It's debatable whether or he actually has been bad. I think PFF would argue that a lot of his INTs were due to his WRs rather than himself and I know he's fared very well in categories such as big time throws that PFF values a lot. The other two they clearly think have been bad; they're only a handful of spots ahead of Allen. Edit: And PFF isn't basing their grades on numbers per se; at least not in the way that people seem to think where the grades are based off of stats. On the contrary, they're watching and grading each play and then those things basically feed into some of the other metrics that they're able to provide after the fact.

Yeah, probably the last time we ever see a QB sneak

I was wondering if someone was going to reply to my thread about that after this lol. Hilarious timing.

Just to be clear, you realize that PFF says those three are bad as well, right?

I think the main point is that people shouldn't freak out so much about a QB that runs. It's likely safer health-wise than them throwing the ball.

Yeah I responded to the author on Twitter to see if kneel downs for example are included in the designed runs. I assume QB sneaks are but they're at least getting hit on those so it's defensible. Kneel downs should obviously be filtered out but I'm not sure if they would be or not. That's the point of the other numbers there. You're far more likely to get hurt getting hit in the pocket than you are on the run. Of course you're less likely to get hurt if you're making the throw without getting hit at all so that needs to be taken into account as well, but I think even if you adjust for the % of plays your QB is kept completely clean in the pocket, you'd still end up arriving at running plays being safer.

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/injury-proneness-running-qbs-russell-wilson-lamar-jackson/opdkjdfw91001uuwfzt4rm82s According to Sports Info Solutions, QBs are injured: Every 236 designed QB runs Every 91.7 scrambles Every 92.5 sacks Every 67.3 knockdowns after throwing

All we know so far is Kenny Young. There was a rumor of a Day 3 pick in addition to Young, but that hasn't been officially reported yet. Even if Peters is overrated, this is a win for Baltimore.

Even if he were a one-trick pony, his one trick is very good and super valuable. And he's also not a one-trick pony. Pretty much every NFL team screwed up on their evaluation of him. Edit: I also still like Cody Ford btw, but I made it pretty clear before the draft how much I liked Metcalf and he's pretty consistently proven himself each week so far this year.

It got pulled down now to update after the Packers win but the site I was looking at was Sportsbook.ag

that’s all fair, though I would argue they were pretty much all bad last season with the exception of Baker. I probably would say Lamar was 2nd best last season too and easily the best this season. As you mentioned though, it’s still early for all of these guys.

He’s literally in the 5-10 range according to Vegas. Edit: Currently tied for 5th best odds.

Lamar is a second tier MVP candidate right now. None of the others are remotely in the discussion.

Yep. This draft class has panned out pretty much exactly as I thought it would so far.