DCOrange

I'm sure I'll be able to talk myself into it if Shenault is ultimately the guy, but he doesn't look like a Round 1 prospect to me. I would tend to agree with Reid's scouting report of him at TDN, but I apparently just don't value what he sees the way he does. https://thedraftnetwork.com/player/laviska-shenault-jr/NLQE1jFVo5 He could be an AJ Brown type threat after the catch. I was similarly low on Brown last year and looks like I was probably wrong about him, so maybe I'm wrong about Shenault as well. Love the fact that he has experience lining up all over the place Seems to have good hands I think he has a very long ways to go if he's going to be our X receiver; right now, his only move to beat press coverage is to try to just sprint past them on the outside and I don't think he has the speed to get away with that in the NFL. His route running is pretty poor; his out routes drift up the field, he doesn't really sell his cuts, just isn't very good at beating his man when he doesn't have the speed advantage. It's possible that this is a result of never having one specific role in the offense, but it's a concern nonetheless (and a similar concern that I had with AJ Brown, which ultimately didn't hold him back as a rookie). He doesn't want to block anybody/doesn't really show much effort when the play is designed to go to someone else. Of the guys I've watched a decent amount of, I currently like (in this order): Henry Ruggs CeeDee Lamb Jerry Jeudy Jalen Reagor Michael Pittman I'm just lukewarm on Higgins and Jefferson at the moment and pretty skeptical of Shenault. And after those top-tier prospects, I like the little I've seen of Denzel Mims, Bryan Edwards, Jauan Jennings, and Van Jefferson. Edit: And re: the Shenault-Sammy Watkins comparison, the similarities basically end for me at the various ways they were involved in their offense. I don't think Shenault has Sammy's speed, ability to beat press coverage, or route running when he was coming out of Clemson.

I just went through and updated it. Still waiting for some people to announce whether they're returning to school or declaring, but I removed those that have already announced their intention to return and updated the list of schools we've scouted based on some more tweets I found + putting pieces together from Astro's spreadsheet. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EGcKt-3OhHND7shQmY9LREGwBxtnUcFwQtQDz2U-3tk/edit?usp=sharing Matt Miller also expanded on his big board, so for example, there are now 40 WRs listed (minus a few that are returning to school). QB: 11/14 - If we take one at all, it would be a Day 3 pick, but I doubt we do anything here. RB: 14/24 - RBs that were scouted multiple times: JK Dobbins (Day 1), Najee Harris (Day 2), Ke'Shawn Vaughn (Day 3), Tavien Feaster (Day 3). WR: 25/36 - We scouted all of the top guys with the exception of Brandon Aiyuk (Arizona State) and Gabriel Davis (UCF). TE: 7/13 - I'm guessing we don't touch tight ends in this year's draft after taking two last year. OT: 12/23 - Only scouted two of these guys multiple times, but still wouldn't be shocking to see us take one. IOL: 12/20 - Same story as OT. IDL: 14/18 - Didn't scout Derrick Brown (#1) but scouted the rest of the top 10. Could take a Jordan Phillips replacement, but we'll see. Edge: 18/28 - Scouted each of Miller's top 7, and scouted 7 of the 28 multiple times. LB: 18/24 - Scouted 9 of the top 10; think we could take a LB for depth at some point. CB: 14/23 - Scouted 10 of the top 13. A #2 CB is an underrated need for us and BPA could end up meaning taking a CB kinda early in the draft. S: 16/24 - Scouted 13 of the top 15, including Kyle Dugger from Lenoir-Rhyne (a Division 2 school). That tells me we're interested in potentially adding a safety to the group.

To me, a bust is a player that's drafted high and turns out to be a bad player when healthy. Sammy is a pretty good player that never lived up to being an elite player like people expected. That isn't a bust; it's just a letdown.

Are we saying who we think is better right now or which we would rather have moving forwards? I would gladly take my chances with the LSU guys but I think the Bills WRs are likely better right now.

I think someone will probably still give him a huge contract but we'll see.

I think AJ Green might be my choice. Getting one of the top DEs is a higher priority to me, but due to the number of choices there, I don't really care about one specific DE. AJ is pretty much the only free agent WR I'm interested in (maybe Robby as well, but not sure if McBeane will want him).

If McBeane are fine with Clowney personality-wise, he'd be my choice if I could have any of them. Would be very happy to get any of those tier 1 guys though. If we can't get any of them, I think I'd probably turn my attention to Adrian Clayborn and then likely use our 1st round pick on one of the edge prospects to develop behind him.

I love it when people say a prospect will be a bust because somebody that played at the same school in a different era in a different system for a different coach with a different skillset and a different personality was a bust. Very logical.

And also his insane elusiveness in the pocket

I’m in love with LSU’s RB.

Not eligible yet but he’ll be a top 5-10 pick next year probably (or at least be projected that way going into the year).

Man Joe Burrow’s ball placement is insanely good.

Would have to look at the film for that, but pass rush win rate is based on beating your man before 2.5 seconds, so based on that, it would seem Phillips generally picked up his sacks on slower developing plays where coverage held up or pressure from other players forced the QB to step into Phillips.

Oliver is already ahead of Phillips in terms of pass rush win rate: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/27584726/nfl-pass-blocking-pass-rushing-rankings-2019-pbwr-prwr-leaderboard Top 10 DT Pass Rush Win Rate 1. Aaron Donald, Rams, 25% 2. Grady Jarrett, Falcons, 22% 3. Chris Jones, Chiefs, 19% 4. Maliek Collins, Cowboys, 16% 5. Quinton Jefferson, Seahawks, 16% 6. Calais Campbell, Jaguars, 15% 7. Ed Oliver, Bills, 15% 8. Denico Autry, Colts, 14% 9. Matt Ioannidis, Redskins, 13% 10. Vita Vea, Buccaneers, 13%

He generated pressures at the same rate in Miami as he does here. Just so happened to have one of the all-time outlier seasons this year with almost half his pressures turning into sacks. I'm not really convinced he's a great pass-rusher, and he certainly isn't a great all-around DT.

He's top 3 on our team at DT. Nowhere near that relative to all the DTs in the league though. He or his new team will be in for a rude awakening IMO.

I like him, but if he's going into negotiations thinking top 3 money is actually his starting position, I can't imagine a deal getting done. He's going to have to give in wayyyyy more than that. I wouldn't want to pay him half that personally.

It might be haha

I came away from these videos a lot more impressed with Pittman than I expected to be and kinda lukewarm on Higgins. Think Van Jefferson could be a good value play if for some reason we don't draft a WR early.

Maybe a flukey run, sure. I think any of this year’s playoff teams are technically capable of a fluke run. I don’t think our offense is near good enough yet to be a serious contender. But more importantly, I don’t think players from other teams view us as a contender regardless of whether you think we are or aren’t.

Gotcha. Very cool, good work as always!

Going to be more nit-picky about this one because I care more about addressing this position than the rest: Realistically, I think Amari is probably in a tier all by himself. He's a border-line elite WR; none of the other tier 1 guys (besides maybe AJ if he comes back healthy) are in that discussion. Not sure if the draft grades are yours or from somewhere else, but I think Aiyuk is generally considered a 1st-2nd round prospect (probably more 2nd round) and Tyler Johnson is definitely not considered a 1st-2nd round prospect at this point. As far as trade candidates go, this is purely speculation on my part, but I wouldn't be surprised if the following guys are available: Sammy Watkins (but highly doubt we'd be interested), Brandin Cooks, Alshon Jeffery, Corey Davis. As for what I would personally do: I'd try to trade for one of the guys mentioned above (obviously price depends on which guy you're getting, but I think they're all worth pursuing). Assuming we do not acquire any of those guys, I'd aggressively pursue AJ Green. With his age, we can likely overpay him on a short-term deal. He checks every box we're looking for and it would be easy to get out of his contract when we need to. I would also be fine with Robby Anderson if McBeane thinks he's fine personality-wise. Assuming we have AJ Green in hand already, I'd turn my attention to the draft. If Ruggs or Lamb make it to our pick somehow, I'd take them. My guess is those two, Jeudy, and Higgins are all gone though. In that event, I'd be fine with skipping WR in the first round and seeing who makes it to our 2nd round pick. As of today, I'd be happy to get Jalen Reagor, Justin Jefferson, or Brandon Aiyuk in the 2nd round, though I wouldn't be surprised if any of them end up being gone by our pick anyways. We'll have to circle back on this as the draft gets closer and draft stock changes. I'd also be in favor of scooping someone up on Day 3. Basically, come out of the draft with someone that can potentially turn into an X WR and someone that can turn into a Y to develop behind AJ and Cole. Basically, the end result is: X: AJ Green Z: John Brown Y: Cole Beasley Backups: Rookie, Duke, Foster I suppose we can bring McKenzie back if we want, but $2.1 million for him is a little much IMO. I'd be pretty happy to just roll with the guys listed above.

I would guess he doesn't view us as that kind of team, but guess we'll see this offseason.

Long way to go before the draft, but at the moment, people seem to think hell be available on Day 3; maybe even late on Day 3.

Yeah, I'm not sure I see that speed personally but that's apparently what the NFL teams have listed for him in their database. He did say that the junior times tend to be less accurate than the seniors so with Higgins being a junior, he could end up being off a bit. We'll see soon.