CritMark

Kinda reminds me of the quote by Wayne Gretzky "I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been". He is saying the right things and doing the right things. I hope he carries that through and has a great career. I guess I'm just a sucker for the underdog.

We will have to agree to disagree, on multiple points. You think a lot more of Daniels than I do. While he did sign a big deal with the Eagles, it was front end loaded. The salary cap hit to NO last year was under $1MM. I don't see any way he gets a $7MM/year deal with them for 2018. There is also a big difference between Mayfield and Mahomes. Brees has come out publicly saying he like Mayfield. Also, by any measure, Mayfield is a better QB. Here are some stats from 2016 on eight common opponents for the two. Mahomes - completion 65.2% - TD/INT ratio 3.1/1.0 - QB Rating 144.8 Mayfield - completion 73.2% - TD/INT ratio 4.0/1.0 - QB Rating 200.7 In raw numbers, Mahomes threw 162 more passes (371 to 209) and threw 2 fewer TDs (22 to 24). It's not even close. Two more reasons they would consider a move for Mayfield. Since 2000 only three seasons has a QB have had a rating above 200. That would be Russell Wilson, Baker Mayfield and Baker Mayfield. Only two QBs with over 1000 attempts have a career rating over 170, Marcus Mariota and Baker Mayfield. Sometimes you have to take a chance. I think this guy is worth taking that chance for. I respect any opinion to the contrary however.

I understand the sentiment but at some time you are going to have to find the replacement guy. Look at the Saints. Brees turned 39 this month. People forget that with all the Brady talk. How much longer do they think they can ride this horse? Who is next in line if he goes down? I had to look it up. Chase Daniels (an UFA by the way) and some guy named Taysom Hill, a 27 year old rookie from BYU. BTW - the rookie is the tallest for the three at 6'2". If they think they have Brees' replacement that's one thing. Do you think one of those two is their next FQB? Talk about overvaluing your own backup. Pre draft rumors abound and most of it is nonsense. However, a lot of 'experts' have Mayfield being drafted at 13 by Washington. If he gets by the Jets at 6, the next QB needy team is likely Washington assuming the Fins don't grab him at 11 or the Bengals at 12, just because the guy fell to them. If neither of those are interested in a QB, do you think they would not shop the pick to a team like the Saints? I think they would and I think the Saints would bite. Besides, as I previously mentioned, he current CBO makes this palatable. Watson went 12 last year and signed an almost $14MM 4 year deal. Miami paid Cutler $10MM for 1 year. This would not just be a reasonable play, I think it would be a good play for the Saints.

Agree on Denver but disagree on the Giants. I don't think they see themselves drafting this low again and they know Eli is winding down. Given a deep QB class they need to take a top talent this year. I think that means they either stay at 2 or trade back no more than a few spots. The more I read, I don't think Cincinnati will take a QB short of a big drop on a top guy. I expect them to trade back. Miami is another story, I still think they are a player if the right QB is there, and I think Mayfield would entice them to pull the trigger. I agree San Diego isn't going to take just anybody but another team that I think will pull the trigger on their next FQB if that guys is there when they pick. There are two big wildcards in this draft IMO. First is Josh Allen. You know, they guy who can't hit a net unguarded from 10 yards away. If he slips based on things like that, the board changes significantly. Second is the teams that have aging QBs that know they need to find a replacement, even if they plan to let him hold a clipboard for a couple of years. Given the deep class, they don't have to trade up to the #1 pick to get him. Maybe top five, but not all the way to #1. This would include the Saints, Chargers and Steelers. Even the Packers with Rodgers turning 35 towards the end of the 2018 season. If one of the top guys slips even a little, don't be surprised if one of these teams is actively looking to trade up to secure that next guy now.

You were thinking specific and I was thinking general. Same premise.

I feel slightly different. I would be fine with an Alex Smith type rental for a year and a top QB rookie. I just don't think they guy you can get at 21 will make the current situation much better in 2019. If that's the thought, let's see what Webb actually is. I would prefer to trade up if possible. I think that is what someone like the Giants are thinking. They aren't drafting this high very often. Irrespective of who they have as their starter in 2018, I will be stunned if they don't take a QB. Wait, are you saying an NFL exec would intentionally try to mislead other teams heading in to the draft? Say it ain't so. ;-)

First, I agree with you. I don't see them making a big move up. Unfortunately, even if they were to get a veteran like Smith, I don't see them moving a great deal from where they are in the draft. Not good enough to make a long playoff run and not bad enough to grab a top QB in the next few years. That means if they want to move up in a future year, they would most likely have to give up a future year first. At this there is a possibility that they could move up this year without giving up next years #1. If they don't take Rudolph or another similar guy, that leaves you with Peterman or Webb. If one can't be turned into something serviceable, what do you do when the veteran rental leaves?

OK, I can sign off on a pocket passer that can throw on the run. No he is not the athlete Wilson is. As for Manziel, I don't see the comparison at all. Manzeil would run at the first sign of trouble. A lot of his completions were to throw the ball up for grabs and let Evans win the battle. Mayfield wants to throw the ball and puts it where the receivers can rack up YAC. Two totally different animals.

As I said, I think Brees is the best comp for Mayfield. I agree he is much more like Brees than Wilson. I don't think Mayfield moves in the pocket to look to run. He keeps his head up, unlike a lot of young Qbs, looking to throw the ball. He can run but I would not really consider him a running QB like some. He's more of a pocket passer first, an out of the pocket passer second and a runner last. I wouldn't bet against him either.

If you want a QB in the first round at 21 I think you are looking at Mason Rudolph from OKST. Solid QB, good college career and a competitor. I think he can be a middle of the pack starter in the NFL. I don't see him ever breaking in to the top 10 in he NFL but given there are never 32 starting quality QBs to play in the NFL in any given year, that's not bad. That's just one man's opinion. I think that before pick 21 there will be five QBs off the board. My guess is this order: Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield, Allen and Jackson. I think the first three will be off the board by pick #6. Even some of the QB needy teams who sign a veteran will pick a guy in the top of this draft if the guy they want is available. That would give them a chance to have the rookie watch and learn for a year or two. The current CBA makes the numbers work. And if the veteran is a great long term option they can flip the young QB for decent capital like Jimmy G to the 9ers. So let me ask you a question. Would you be willing to trade both 21 & 22 plus a later pick to get one of the top three QBs?

If he was 6'4" he would be the unquestioned #1 pick IMO. I agree that completion % is not the exclusive measure. That's why I like to include rating, TD/INT ratios, performance vs better defenses and not lousy defenses, progress/regression year-to-year, etc. In addition to looking at total completion %, I also like to look at completion % vs a blitz and % when under pressure (Pro Footbal Focus keeps these stats). Each is a piece to a puzzle. When I look at all the pieces of the QB puzzle, none of them are perfect, but the clearest picture is Mayfield's.

Buffalo716 I don't think we are far apart in our sentiments here. But let's be clear on what we are both saying. I never accused you of saying the Pac 12 had a better defense. What I was commenting on was the criticism directed at Mayfield that he plays in a conference that doesn't play defense when Rosen & Darnold get no such criticism when they play in a statistically worse conference and when facing their toughest defenses, Mayfield played demonstrably better. Of course recruiting rankings are HS and the trick is how they perform in college. The draft is exactly the same thing except college to the pros. If it was a science we would have nothing to debate about. Then what would we be doing today? As for Manziel, he did have a very good completion %. Mayfield's was better, but I will be happy to concede a push here. That said, Manziel's rating was over 40 points lower than Mayfield's in one year and 26 points lower his second compared to Mayfield's last two years. I used that because that is the guy you are getting in each case. Also, his TD/INT ratio is nowhere near as good as Mayfield's. I thought the positives were spot on and I think Drew Brees is a good comp for Mayfield. I hope he can be that good in the pros. Be well my friend.

Forgive me if it seems like I am focusing on the negatives. As a numbers guy I like to look at stats and try to find ones from credible sources that say something meaningful. As a result, I bristle when people make statements that aren't supported by fact. While I agree that it 'feels' like OU does a better job at developing talent, the only objective measure I have is recruiting class. It's also a slippery slope to excuse away what the stats and the tape, and say there is no good measure so I will go with what I feel. Why rank recruiting classes then. Instead let's measure over time the ranking of a player entering a program and leaving a program over multiple years and all players. That would combine with the recruiting class going in to see what is the player and what is the program. FYI - when I say "I" a I am not talking about you or anyone else specifically, I'm talking conceptually. It 'feels' like the Big 12 doesn't play any defense but statistically the Pac 12 is worse, yet Mayfield gets dinged for it and the other top prospects get a pass. It 'feels' like OU has much better talent, yet recruiting stats don't support that. Mayfield's performance gets discounted by some measure instead of getting praise for whatever contribution to the elevation of play those around him enjoy that the Qb might be responsible for. Darnold who had much better talent recruited around him gets excused away as they don't develop talent. It 'feels' like he is a gunslinger which by insinuation is he takes too many chances and is reckless with the ball. Yet any of the top QBs can only dream of his completion % and TD/INT ratio, even against top defenses. I'm glad you like Mayfield, I do too. And I will repeat, I am not saying he is a sure fire NFL star. What I am saying is to all evaluators out there, stop with the excuses, look at the numbers, look at the tape (film tape not measuring tape) and see the things that matter. OK, stepping down from my soap box now.

Sorry but again, I have to disagree that OU had the better talent. I think we can agree that all of the talent on the teams were from the recruiting classes of 2014 through 2017. The exception would be a red-shirt senior from 2013. So I went back and looked up the recruiting class rankings for the past four years. Here are the numbers; USC had far and away the best recruiting classes in aggregate. Three of the four years they had the best of the three schools and two of those years USC was ranked in the top four. A deeper dive would say that you should really focus on 2015 & 2016 since there are not a lot of true freshmen who play at these three schools and the best talent doen't stay until their senior year and opt for the NFL. In those two key years, USC rocks with top talent, and UCLA ranked better than OU both years. This would seem to indicate that USC and not OU had the best talent, and UCLA was on par with OU. I will say it again, by any objective measure, Mayfield should be considered the best Qb in the class.

Buffalo716 I agree you can only play the defenses on the schedule but here is my big issue. I hear that comment a lot about the defenses he faced and how bad the Big 12 is. However, for 2017 at least, they ranked ahead of the Pac 12, which had several teams fall out of the top 100. However, you never hear any such comment about Rosen or Darnold. Add to that of the three, Mayfield started as the better statistical QB and got better. Not something you can say about the two Pac 12 QBs. I selected those to see how each QB performed against the best talent they faced. Both Mayfield and Darnold beat up on everyone else not included in their top 6 defenses faced. Rosen not so much, losing to Arizona who ranked outside the top 100 defensively where Rosen threw 0 TDs and 3 INTs. Bottom line is, if you accept that a top NFL prospect should beat bad teams, Mayfield out performed Rosen & Darnold against good teams, and the numbers are not even close. And let's throw this in for good measure, if you go back and look at the preseason comments about OU, you will frequently see the question, where are the skill players going to come from. Mayfield lost 82% of his receiving production and 64% of his rushing production to the NFL before this past season. It's real easy to say at the end of the season how great the talent was around him, but at the beginning of the season nobody was saying that. The one constant at OU was Mayfield. Maybe, just maybe, he does a pretty good job of making the other players around him better. Finally, the top of the SEC was good, as always. Much of the SEC was barely pedestrian. Historically I would agree they represent a tougher schedule, but not this year. Just look at Alabama's opponents during the regular season.

Great write up on Mayfield. I hope you don't mind if I comment with some of your conclusions. In your negatives you listed three things I disagree with. Actually two I disagree with and one I don't think is as important at you may. -Inconsistent field vision - watch the tape and you will see his eyes are always down field. Even when he scrambles his eyes are up. He is certainly guilty of bypassing shorter route for down field plays but when you lead the nation in accuracy on long passes it's kinda hard to ding him too hard for that. -Needs work under center - Absolutely accurate...but, while I am looking for 2017 stats, here are some interesting numbers on 2016. According to Tru Media Networks ( a company chaired by Tony Kahn, Jag's owners son), 78.9% of passing plays started in shotgun. When talking about Tom Brady's injury it was mentioned that he operates out of the gun over 70% of the time. Does Mayfield need more experience under center yes, but the NFL is changing. -Didn't play many top defenses - this one drives me crazy because people have just adopted the narrative as true without actually looking at the numbers. Please forgive the length of this reply but I am a numbers geek. I did an analysis on the six games for each QB against the highest ranked defensive teams faced. So here is the data. Each teams defense ranking is in (##) Sam Darnold: Record 4-2: W vs Stanford (35), W vs Texas (30), W vs Utah (39), L vs ND (31), W vs Stanford (35) L vs Ohio St (16). Average defense team ranking 31. Josh Rosen: Record 3 - 3. L vs Stanford (35), W vs Colorado (75), W vs Oregon (82), L vs Washington (5), L vs USC (60), W vs Cal (80). Average defense team ranking 56. Baker Mayfield: Record 4 - 2. W vs Ohio State (16), W vs TCU (15), W vs Texas (30), L vs Iowa State (27), W vs TCU (15), L vs Georgia (6). Average defense team ranking 19. So Mayfield faced the stiffest defenses in their toughest six games, he and Darnold had the same W/L record and Rosen faced the easiest competition and fared worse in W/L. Every one of the six Mayfield faced were ranked in the top 30 defensively, Darnold had 2, Rosen had only 1 with three others ranked 75 or worse! That's the team numbers. How did the QBs perform? Darnold 62.6 Completions. 14 TD/6 INT (2.33 td/int ratio), 330 YPG, 152.97 rating Rosen 62.9 Completions. 12 TD/4 INT (3.00 td/int ratio), 306 YPG, 142.95 rating Mayfield 68.9 Completions. 16 TD/2 INT (8.00 td/int ratio), 310 YPG, 180.92 rating So what does this tell us? Far superior numbers by Mayfield against tougher competition that either other 2 QBs. I am not saying Mayfield is a sure fire NFL star. What I am saying is given the body of work for each of these three, there is no reason to believe he is far, if at all, behind the other two as a NFL prospect. If I had to take one of the top three, I take Mayfield every time. BTW - I did not include Josh Allen in this analysis given his awful completion % in a small conference and his 0-3 record against Power Five teams with 0 TDs and 8 INTs. He is not the same conversation for me.

For your reading enjoyment, here is a post season analysis by Pro Football Focus: https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/draft-josh-allens-2017-season-defined Clearly not high on Josh Allen. I agree.

I don't see any way that happens. From my count, here are the QB needy teams as well as a few that rumors have them moving on from their incumbent. I added my perceived likelihood they take a QB. In a few cases I made a distinction between taking a QB and taking Mayfield specifically if he is on the board. 1 & 4 - Cleveland - There is no way they don't take a QB with one of these two picks. Wait, we're talking about Cleveland! QB = 100% 2 - NY Giants - Now would be the perfect time for them to take a QB to sit behind Eli for 1 year. QB = 99% 5 - Denver - Their QB situation is a mess. I think they are in the market but think Elway's first option is free agency. Even with that, taking a longer term QB is a possibility. QB = 75% 6. NY Jets - If Denver passes on a QB I expect to see the Jets take the best of the rest. QB = 60%, Mayfield = 75% 11. Miami - the fans are growing tired of Tannehill. They have seen enough to know he is not getting them to the SB. QB = 50%, Mayfield = 75% 12. Cincinnati - Same as Miami bur insert Dalton for Tannehill. QB = 50%, Mayfield = 75% 15. Arizona - they have NO QB. Even if they pick one up in free agency I would expect them to take one here if one of the top five are on the board. QB = 75% 17. LA Chargers - Not necessarily a needy team, but if Mayfield is on the board, I think they would grab him. QB = 25%, Mayfield = 75% That is a long gauntlet to run in the hopes of getting Mayfield to fall to 21. So the question is, would they bundle the two picks to move up to take a QB of their liking, whoever that may be?

Looking forward to the Baker Mayfield write up. He is the opposite end of the spectrum on trading game tape for a measuring tape. A LOT of people are discounting him because of his height. They put Allen ahead of Mayfield on the basis of a tape measure. Look at the film. I have heard a hundred times, the tape don't lie. Can't wait to read what you think.

I don't understand the fuss over this guy. Did we trade in game tape for a measuring tape? He completed 56% of his passes in the Mountain West for G-d sake. In his games against a power 5 team he had 1 TD and 8 INTs. Do pro scouts think he will see easier defenses in the NFL? If you could get him in the 3rd or 4th round as a project, sure. As a top ten pick as many people think he will be, I am baffled. I remember another big strong QB that had much better numbers than Allen in college, playing in the SEC no less. His name was Jamarcus Russell. While that's probably not a fair comparison, if both came out the same year there is no way Allen would have gone ahead of Russell. Just sayin!