Batman1876

The Draft has seen 2 can’t miss prospects at QB, Elway and Luck. These 4 would be in the discussion as top guys in most drafts. These 4 have faults, what makes the year jumbled is that they are all very good, no one is Elway excellent but all are in the Eli, Wentz, Stafford range.

Nude bloody penthouse meltdown, who had that on their off-season bingo card.

so 12 starts from the top 10, or 1.2 starts per pick. 26 starts from the remaining 243 picks or .1 starts per pick. 12x more likely on a per pick basis that the starting QB was top 10.

Its impossible to find an objective measurement of success, the key is to pick a level of success and fairly apply it across all picks, the high tide raises all boats and the proportions of successes to failures on a round by round basis remain consistent.

I think it depends. Joey Harrington has said his early struggles shook his confidence and made him like football less and hindered his development. Getting sacked 80 times as a rookie like David Carr has to have an impact as well. Most QBs are who they are the growth comes from acclimating to the game. They won't get much quicker, they wont get much stronger and its hard to change muscle memory and habits developed by repeating things thousands of times.

data based interpretations. ;-)

There seems to be a lot of myths surrounding drafting a QB. These are the ones I could think of please add your own. Myth- Its just throwing darts and hoping for a bulls-eye. Fact- Its not random chance it is a hypothesis. In fact NFL front offices have been very successful at picking the more promising prospects first. When it comes to First round Qbs its rare that a successful QB is picked after a bust. Myth-Drafting a Bust at QB sets your team back 4 years. Fact- Not having a QB is what sets your team back. The rookie wage scale has reduced the impact of drafting a bust. Without the long term high dollar contracts of the past it is easier to move on from a bust. Myth- Building a roster is better than Trading multiple picks to move up for a QB Fact- The median coaching tenure in the NFL is 3 years. When coaches change the roster changes with it to fit the new scheme and approach. The number one reason coaches are fired is poor QB play. Meaning if you build a roster and hope to solve the QB problem later its likely that your roster will be broken up when a new coach is hired. Myth- Wait till the later rounds and develop a Guy, its an equally good option Fact- Over the past 20 years quality QBs have been found in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounds. A single QB has been found in the 5th 6th and 7th rounds. The odds of success however are very low. 20% of Qbs from the 2nd 3rd and 4th rounds become long term starters and about 5% have become franchise guys. In the last three rounds there is Brady and no one else. The odds are negligible. Myth- Let him sit and develop, he'll be just as good as a top guy. Fact- QBs rarely develop, they mostly just acclimate. They don't pick up new skills they simply translate their old ones. Players who relied on being freak athletes and never even truly learned the college game are the clearest example.

He didn't say the good parts of them . He has Wilson's height, Favre's willingness to chuck it, and he drinks as much as Brees weighs.

Note the fact that the first QB taken is far less likely to bust. And that the earlier they are taken the less likely they are to bust. In fact Tennahill and Cutler are the only successes taken after a bust and both of them are pretty middling.

I can't find it within myself to be too excited by AJ or Peterman. The most reasonable expectation is that they fit somewhere in the Dalton to Fitz range. The odds are long when it comes to hoping they will be franchise QBs. I'm done being ok with settling, I'm only going to be happy when they nail down a franchise signal caller.

I hope the Bills like him. I hope their evaluators think he can be an effective passer who happens to be lightning fast. I have my doubts but I’d hope that Beane knew what he was doing and wasn’t settling for good enough. You get good hoping when you’re a Bills fan.

The best chance for the Giants passing in a QB is that they think Barkley is the best RB since Sanders. If they think that OBJ and Barkley could make Manning look good again and have one last shot at a run they might take the chance.

Let’s get this up to 10 pages so he can start an identical thread.

They edited out when he said “I could spend days oiling them up!”

So have they fitted him for his Gold jacket yet?

WHYning!?!

How many of those 49 QBs ended up having success outside of Cleveland or Buffalo? Teams end up a mess because they don't find a QB. Cincy was a dysfunction mess for 20 years coincidentally they stopped being one when they ended up getting multiple years of success out of Palmer, same with the lions and Stafford, and so on. Its hard to get a good QB teams end up messes until they do.

History would say yes the gap is large. 70% of top five picks work out after that the number drops to a fraction of that.

So your argument is keep taking the approach we have used for the past 20 years and that is how you avoid mediocrity?

Lets look at the Browns and the Bills starting QBs for the past 20 years. The Bills have Had 20 and the Browns 30. 1 Of those was a top 5 pick, Tim Couch. He busted the team lost 4 year finding out he wasn't the answer. That's obviously bad. The teams combined however spent 36 years finding out that 49 late 1st round picks, later round picks, trades and free agents wern't the answer, that is far far worse.

The other side however is that getting picks does not mean success. From the RG3 trade the rams got 8 players 5 of those players were selected in the first 65 picks. Of those 8 players one became a reliable starter, Alec Ogletree, he just was traded. None of those 8 players are on the team now.

It was a fine signing, cheep quality backup. But the odds of him being a QB who puts us in playoff contention year in and year out are long to say the least.

Maybe we will strike gold, I hope we do maybe he will spend the next 15 years making pro bowls and winning rings. But odds are he’s another Firz or Tyrod or any number of backups who got a chance in free agency and were just ok.

When was the last time a late round pick spent 4 years as a backup and then became the solution to a team’s QB problem. I can’t think of one. Matt Schaub in Houston is the best I can think of.

Odds say 2 or 3 of the Elite prospects will become quality starters. Odds say those players will go well before the 12th pick. You can bet your rent check on a 16th seed in the NCAA tournament with the logic that We’ll UMBC one a game or 2 last year”. But odds are you’ll lose. I’d rather Bet on #1 I’ll come out ahead more often than not.