MrEpsYtown

I know the Benford conversion to safety is a hot topic. I ran him and Poyer side by side as safeties in RAS. Some numbers he exceeds Poyer and some he falls short.

Free agency: Re-sign Edmunds. Find an undervalued corner-safety convert to replace Poyer. Replace Saffold. Draft: Wide receivers, defensive linemen and OL.

This regime, and I think it is smart, is always going to draft a running back in the 2nd-4th round area. Grind them out and after 4 years let them go. 1st round running back isn't happening because you get stuck with the 5th year option situation and it isn't a great strategy unless a guy like Barkley falls to you. Giving huge money to a guy like Barkley while not reaping the benefits of his rookie contract just doesn't make sense in terms of asset management. I think they pursue depth there at the position in free agency, maybe a Samaje Perine who gave us issues last week and brings a different style than Cook/Hines and will be cheap. They are just not going to pay a RB 12-15 million a year. This will never be a RB centric team. Beane alluded to it. You can't pay a QB, a WR and other positions. They have big contracts in Allen, Diggs, Dawkins, White, Morse, Von Miller, Milano, with the eventual need for a couple of safeties and possibly a Mike backer, there is likely zero chance they would chase Barkley. I can tell you this, when it is time to extend Joe Burrow, the Bengals will be moving on from Joe Mixon. It just won't fit.

I appreciate it. Same here. Really great content on here. Thanks for starting the thread!

Every year!

How is it possible that people came away from that game the other day and arrived at the conclusion that we need a running back? Seriously?

Sorry for the length, just getting into the free agent guys...let me just preface that I do not like PFF grades for OL. I think it is a great resource, I think their grades for both OL and DL aren't truly indicative of how good a guy is. I do like the idea of Jawaan Taylor. I don't know if the Jags will let him leave, and he is Florida born and raised, college and pro. It is going to take a lot to pry him away and beat out people like the Bears in free agency. I don't think it will happen, but I like his upsaid and he has been solid. Athletic and huge. Kaleb McGary is the best RT on the market and I don't think he is a realistic target. Mike McGlinchey is another name. Niners fans hate him. His career has been exactly like Spencer Browns, and I am not sure if he is an upgrade. He is their weak link on the OL. A guy like Andrew Wylie from KC could make some sense. Also Billy Turner of the Broncos. I think Dion and Brown will start next year and the upgrades will come in the interior. That said... Dalton Risner is ok. But this regime had a chance to draft him and they passed. For Cody Ford. I think his game is ok, and would be an upgrade to Saffold. But I don't think they go down that road. They also passed on Elgton Jenkins and all those receivers. Huge botch there. Nate Davis is similar to me. Ok athlete, with ok size. I don't think he amazing, but still a solid upgrade. It would depend on cost. Ethan Pocic has developed into a pretty good center, but he is a center only and lacks versatility. I do think that he would be a good target if Morse is indeed cut or retires. He is an ok athlete, and it is hard to tell how good he is because he was flanked by two all pro guards. He had never been great previously. Ben Powers is a very unathletic gap scheme guard. similar to a Bradley Bozeman. You only bring Powers in if you are changing the run scheme. Personally, I like Conner McGovern, the Jets/Mizzou version. To me he is a guy you can sign who can play RG, LG, or center. You sign him and if Morse stays he goes to RG and Bates goes to LG. If Morse goes McGovern or Bates become your center and the other probably plays LG. McGovern is an elite RAS guy at 9.87 and a former college LT. What I love about him is that he brings some major nastiness with actual ability (Think Feliciano with talent). He has also been pretty durable. Like McGary is the big win in the RT spot, the guard spot offers Isaac Seumalo, who i would love to have, but again, he is going to get paid and I don't think we will be the ones to do it. Some lower budget guys who make sense: Max Scharping, a former left tackle who moved into guard and was a huge bust for Houston. I like his potential and he shut us down this week. High RAS guy. They also passed on him for Cody Ford. David Edwards, a former Kromer guy at LA for the Rams and former Wisconsin RT. He struggled with injuries this year, but if he is healthy, maybe reuniting with Kormer will help him. Never a high RAS guy, same as Powers. He is still very young and at least had success under our OL coach. Michael Deiter, another Wisconsin linemen former LT. I don't think he ever got a fair shake in Miami. I thought he was one of their best linemen two years ago and Miami went and signed Connor Williams to move him to center and push Deiter to the bench. Average athlete, but always passed the eye test for me. Can play guard or center. Nick Allegretti, formerly of KC. He gets stuck in the numbers game there, but when he has played he played well. Still young and very nasty. Above average RAS. I like his size and his game. Some old wiley veterans could make sense like Rodney Hudson, Justin Pugh. One other thing I will say is keep an eye on some of these teams who will hire new coaches. They have have players who no longer fit their scheme (Like Miami with McDaniel and Michael Deiter). Guys I think could hit the market int he right situation Carolina's Brady Christensen, Denver's Quinn Meinerz, or the Colts Braden Smith. That is where I am at with the OL right now.

Brown is Mike McGlinchey. He is an okay player for the Niners who will be a free agent who took a long time to get good. . I really don't see an upgrade to Brown on the FA list. Jawaan Taylor is very interesting guy in my world. Just 25 years old with some more upside to go. Kaleb McGary is probably by far the best guy on teh market. Same deal. long athletic guy who took awhile to put it together. He is going to cost a lot. Outside of McGary or Taylor, I would stick with Brown and let him grow into McGlinchey. Just to add, with all the cap space the Bears have and just a few good linemen in FA, how do you get them to come here?

It was Van Roten at first, but he had some snap issues, so the next time Morse was hurt they put Bates at C and Van Roten at RG.

Dawkins and Bates stay because there is too much dead cap when you cut them. I think they will have to cut Morse to open something like 8 million in Cap Space. If that is the case you move Bates to center. They probably stick with Brown, then you have to find two guards.

At the end of the day you have to find guys who fit. I mean the Bengals went out and got a bit time player in L'ael Collins, meh guys like Ted Karras, Alex Cappa, and Cordell Volson in the 4th round and it totally changed their line. It is not about investment, it is about finding good players who fit your scheme. Jackson Carman, the second round pick a few years ago dominated our team yesterday. The Bills have invested money and some draft picks. They really have not found great players.

At the end of the day I have to put that on McDermott. They have dealt with a ton of adversity and he has held it together, but in the end it wasn't enough. Is the roster too old? too young? IDK, it did seem like they were sleepwalking, but these guys are supposed to be professionals. They need to be held accountable. Bengals dealt with ridiculous injuries and it was next man up. Hubbard and Hendrickson have been playing hurt most of the year and the Oline was in shambles. Scrap heap OL dudes playing and making it happen. McDermott always talked about humble and hungry. I did not see that with the Bills, I saw it with the Bengals. They were hungry and had something to prove. (not so humble)

I loved their Philly Cheese steak when I was a kid.

Here is the thing with the O-line, what's out there in free agency may or not be better than what we have? The other issue, is that Dion Dawkins was the worst linemen on the field yesterday. He was terrible. Perhaps it is because of Rodger Saffold, but he was really bad. We all thought that we would be able to win the one on ones against with our DL vs their linemen, yet the highest paid linemen on that field, Dion, was by far the worst out of either team and beat one on one a few times. It's an issue. I always liked Dion, but I just don't know anymore. Maybe it's scheme, but I think we are in a tough spot there. I am looking forward to your OL primer. There are guys out there, but we will have to pay them and they may or may not be better than what we already have and a first round OL is not ideal in the draft (small chance Skoronski is there because I don't think he is a LT).

I'd be willing to clean house for him.

I feel like they are running Frazier's scheme above all else. McDermott's teams in Carolina spent a lot of time in 4-3 under looks. McDermott is a disciple of Jim Johnson, attacking blitzing defenses and wide nine, 4-3 under concepts. How we became this full time 4-2-5 base feels more like a Frazier thing...Tampa 2 bend but don't break. The scheme is not exotic and the players are ok. If you are not exotic, you have to win one on ones, and our talent defensively is just not there. Watch Fred Warner carry CeeDee Lamb up the seam and imagive Tremaine doing the same? Taron Johnson getting smashed because teams are scheming ways to attack him in the run game as the third LB. I think they need to bring in Steve Wilks. He is the missing piece on the staff imo. He comes from McDermott's scheme and he has run 4-3s, 3-4 concepts and has adjusted to his personnel. Above all else, Wilks is just as respected by the players as Frazier is. I would also be excited about a guy like Brian Flores. I truly believe that this is not McDermott's scheme we are watching. It doesn't remove blame, but I can't believe he would be this passive when compared to other Jim Johnson disciples in Steve Spagnolo, Ron Rivera and John Harbaugh. It wasn't like this in Carolina. McDermott was never a big blitzer, but he was more exotic with his fronts and coverages in Carolina. Look back at all the articles that were written when McDermott was hired and what we should expect. It is nothing like what we got. https://www.cover1.net/sean-mcdermotts-defensive-philosophy-detail-oriented/ https://billswire.usatoday.com/2017/02/06/growing-pains-breaking-down-the-bills-transition-to-sean-mcdermotts-4-3-defense/ https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2017/1/12/14236950/sean-mcdermott-buffalo-bills-head-coach-4-3-defense-all-22 I am not defending Sean, and I love Leslie Frazier, but at this point Frazier has to go. There are a number of DC's avalable at the moment who are better than him. Mutually agree to part ways and go from there.

Very Dick Jauron esque

Interesting name who will be a UFA is Byron Murphy of the Cardinals. Former second round pick out of Washington. He is coming off an injury currently on IR. He's a slow corner with great instincts, tackles, plays zone, and is a ball hawk. To me he is a guy that would benefit to a move to safety. I think he could be one of the top guys in the league if he makes that move. Coming off an injury and coaching changes he could fall through the cracks a bit. A guy with less pedigree I like is Nik Needham of the Dolphins. He is a mostly a nickel player, but I love the way he tackles and plays. IMO a lot of his traits project well to safety. He is also on IR with a torn achilles. Those guys are both corner converts. In terms of pure safeties you have a variety of types, guys like Jessie Bates, Juan Thornhill, Taylor Rapp, Andrew Wingard, Nasir Adderley and one of my favorites Chauncey Gardner-Johnson. All of these guys are in the 24-27 year old range.

Gotcha. I should rephrase that as he was underpaid, before the contract with new money. Being right at that 9.5ish spot I think is the correct value. It seems like he thinks he should get paid like those other guys, but he shouldn't imo.

I think you can go two routes, if you have to spend to keep Poyer I would probably just go after the big fish which is Jesse Bates. He's a great fit and would play well with Hyde. The other route is too look for undervalued FA corners (like Hyde and Poyer were) who could make an impact as a safety conversion.

Really tough evaluation. They are in a tough spot here with Poyer and Edmunds coming up, as well as having some other issues on the roster. If I have to choose between Poyer and Hyde, I take Hyde (despite the fact that he has missed the entire season.) But Poyer is a warrior who belongs here and should finish his career here. He is underpaid, but he should not approach the Derwin James type contract. At the end of the day it is very much a buyer beware with him. A guy who did nothing before he got here and developed into a great player in a system he is tailor made for. Then consider age and injury history, I do not think free agency is going to be kind to him. His comp in terms of level of play and age etc is probably Tyrann Mathieu, who as a free agent last year signed a 3 year 28 million dollar deal, 9.5 per year. I think that is fair. I think the Bills let him test the market to see his value, with an eye on bringing him back.

He will get a big contract based on potential alone. This is Evan Engram 2.0, so at the very least he will get a big 1 year deal.

I'm a Levis guy. So neither.

To me Poyer is the next Shaq Lawson/Jordan Phillips. I think he is a very specific scheme fit in this defense and if he goes somewhere else he will underwhelm and ultimately regret it. I think he has to be careful in that way. I love Poyer and he is so important to our defense, but I am curious to see what the market is for a older safety, who has had multiply injuries and is a scheme specific fit. Do you want to get paid and cut after a year? Or do you want to make out with a reasonable deal that is fair to stay where you were developed and things are working? Tremaine on the other hand could fit almost anywhere, 4-3, 3-4 inside and outside.

likely, probably were the words I left out. Not guaranteeing anything.